Opening Night: Post Game Thread

[skmsw]

Next time I'll be sure to tell Oquendo to bring his calculator out to 3B.

That's kind've a jackass remark, don't you think? Yes, I showed my math and suggested that probability was against going for it; but only after saying eight different ways from Sunday that it was an ill-advised move based on the players and the game situation involved.

It took a perfect throw to nail him. If you're not willing to get a player thrown out once in a while by a perfect throw, then IMO you are not being aggresive enough. If that throw is offline one way or the other by a couple feet, or if it bounces in the dirt, Eckstein is likely safe. It's the first game of the season and you're down a few runs--test his arm.

Ok, you're entitled to your opinion. You figure a month's worth of spring training games is not enough chance for a gold glove center fielder to flake off the rust to make a good throw from about 30 feet behind second base, so it is worth going for it, even though you're four runs down and stand to risk an almost-ideal chance to catch up. I don't. I think Beltran is going to make a near-perfect throw from that spot on the field pretty close to every time; lesser CFs would too, it was not that tough a play from there.

[Popeye_Card]

Next time I'll be sure to tell Oquendo to bring his calculator out to 3B.

That's kind've a jackass remark, don't you think? Yes, I showed my math and suggested that probability was against going for it; but only after saying eight different ways from Sunday that it was an ill-advised move based on the players and the game situation.

It took a perfect throw to nail him. If you're not willing to get a player thrown out once in a while by a perfect throw, then IMO you are not being aggresive enough. If that throw is offline one way or the other by a couple feet, or if it bounces in the dirt, Eckstein is likely safe. It's the first game of the season and you're down a few runs--test his arm.

Ok, you're entitled to your opinion. You figure a month's worth of spring training games is not enough chance for a gold glove center fielder to make a good throw from about 30 feet behind second base, so it is worth going for it, even though you're four runs down and stand to risk an almost-ideal chance to catch up. I don't. I think Beltran is going to make a near-perfect throw from that spot on the field pretty close to every time.

It was a toungue-in-check remark for humorous purposes only.

I think it took a perfect throw to nail him, and Beltran delivered one. Like I said earlier, I could have gone either way with it. Oquendo chose the aggressive route, and was burned. It happens. And while the game situation was a 4 run margin, the Cardinals needed some sort of offensive boost. The way the night was going, Pujols was almost assured of bouncing into a DP to end the inning without any runs scored.

I'm not saying it was absolutely the correct decision. I just don't agree that it was a boneheaded, uber-stupid decision as people are making it out to be. It was aggressive. It didn't work. Such is baseball.

--P--

[cardfaninfla]

Popeye, it didn't take a perfect throw to nail him, it wasn't even close. It would have taken a bad throw for him to make it. That throw, from where Beltran threw it from could have been 2 or 3 feet to either side and LoDuca has enough time to catch it and make the play.

[skmsw]

It was a toungue-in-check remark for humorous purposes only.

Sorry if I over-reacted.

And while the game situation was a 4 run margin, the Cardinals needed some sort of offensive boost.

Fair enough. I guess from my vantage point, AP and Rolen due up with only one out and a couple men on was about as good a chance at a tide-turning boost as you could ask for; the last thing to do on a night things are not going your way is to take chances that remove opportunities like that.

The way the night was going, Pujols was almost assured of bouncing into a DP to end the inning without any runs scored.

I do agree we were noit having much of a night. Sometimes it feels worth it to try to get things going, or to sneak a run. But like I said last paragraph, low-percentage plays really hurt when they fail, and take you out of high-percentage plays.

I'm not saying it was absolutely the correct decision. I just don't agree that it was a boneheaded, uber-stupid decision as people are making it out to be. It was aggressive. It didn't work. Such is baseball.

I hear ya. Fair enough, on all counts. I guess where I'm coming from is -- sometimes there is no right or wrong, only different approaches and whether it worked or not. In this case, with no hindsight, and regardless of whether you use conventional wisdom, tools, game management, or stats/probability -- there was a right call here, and we made the wrong one. I absolutely agree that it's just baseball. It does not make Oquendo a bad coach or anything, but once in awhile there's a right and a wrong, and I personally believe that this time, we were wrong.

[jim]

There is no sugar coating that play, it was bad baseball pure and simple. From the moment the ball left the bat I had 100% confidence it was going to be 1st and 3rd, never in my wildest dreams did I expect Eck to be waved home. It didn't even take that good of a throw, he was shallow and has a good arm. Eck was out by 15 feet, 95% of the time Beltran nails him on that. It takes a bad throw to not get him.

[haltz]

There is no sugar coating that play, it was bad baseball pure and simple. From the moment the ball left the bat I had 100% confidence it was going to be 1st and 3rd, never in my wildest dreams did I expect Eck to be waved home. It didn't even take that good of a throw, he was shallow and has a good arm. Eck was out by 15 feet, 95% of the time Beltran nails him on that. It takes a bad throw to not get him.

I am watching it right now, not only did he have to range about 20 feet to his right, and he's not all that shallow, but he put the ball on the fly, right on the money, just a couple feet up the third base line. From this freeze-frame it looks like he's at least 70 feet beyond the infield dirt. Lo Duca caught the ball when Eckstein was about four feet away (freeze-framed again). Ecsktein also could have made the play harder by diving away from Lo Duca, instead he went straight into him to knock the ball loose (it looks like).

Anyway, I had had a few by the time this happened, but I thought at the time that Beltran doesn't usually make that play, and I still think so now.

[GatewaySnayke]

Why in the world was Eckstein trying to bust into Mr. Plastic Eyebrows anyway? He's had problems with his oblique twice in the span of about four baseball months, and now he's trying to get himself killed on Opening Night.

[skmsw]

There is no sugar coating that play, it was bad baseball pure and simple. From the moment the ball left the bat I had 100% confidence it was going to be 1st and 3rd, never in my wildest dreams did I expect Eck to be waved home. It didn't even take that good of a throw, he was shallow and has a good arm. Eck was out by 15 feet, 95% of the time Beltran nails him on that. It takes a bad throw to not get him.

I am watching it right now, not only did he have to range about 20 feet to his right, and he's not all that shallow, but he put the ball on the fly, right on the money, just a couple feet up the third base line. From this freeze-frame it looks like he's at least 70 feet beyond the infield dirt. Lo Duca caught the ball when Eckstein was about four feet away (freeze-framed again). Ecsktein also could have made the play harder by diving away from Lo Duca, instead he went straight into him to knock the ball loose (it looks like).

Anyway, I had had a few by the time this happened, but I thought at the time that Beltran doesn't usually make that play, and I still think so now.

That's not how I remember it in real time, but I believe you.

But I suppose if the throw was a couple feet up the 3b line and Eck was still ~4 feet away, we're still talking about it having been a significantly risky play. Not what the doctor ordered in the 6th inning, down 4, big bats coming up.

[Popeye_Card]

There is no sugar coating that play, it was bad baseball pure and simple. From the moment the ball left the bat I had 100% confidence it was going to be 1st and 3rd, never in my wildest dreams did I expect Eck to be waved home. It didn't even take that good of a throw, he was shallow and has a good arm. Eck was out by 15 feet, 95% of the time Beltran nails him on that. It takes a bad throw to not get him.

I am watching it right now, not only did he have to range about 20 feet to his right, and he's not all that shallow, but he put the ball on the fly, right on the money, just a couple feet up the third base line. From this freeze-frame it looks like he's at least 70 feet beyond the infield dirt. Lo Duca caught the ball when Eckstein was about four feet away (freeze-framed again). Ecsktein also could have made the play harder by diving away from Lo Duca, instead he went straight into him to knock the ball loose (it looks like).

Anyway, I had had a few by the time this happened, but I thought at the time that Beltran doesn't usually make that play, and I still think so now.

It was indeed an incredible throw. Strong, right on the money, without a bounce. Throws like that will always nail runners on a close play. But throws like that only get unloaded from even great OF arms like Beltran 1 out of every 10 times.

And as Joe Morgan stated on the telecast, it was an aggressive play by Beltran too in a 4 run game. If it wasn't a perfect throw to the plate, he runs the risk of not getting the runner out AND allowing Wilson to go to 2nd on the throw. Hitting the cut-off man may allow the runner to score (now 3 run margin), but it keeps the DP intact and the runner on 1st.

The Mets executed. I have no problems with that. It was just one of several plays where the Mets just out-executed the Cards that night.

--P--

[haltz]

There is no sugar coating that play, it was bad baseball pure and simple. From the moment the ball left the bat I had 100% confidence it was going to be 1st and 3rd, never in my wildest dreams did I expect Eck to be waved home. It didn't even take that good of a throw, he was shallow and has a good arm. Eck was out by 15 feet, 95% of the time Beltran nails him on that. It takes a bad throw to not get him.

I am watching it right now, not only did he have to range about 20 feet to his right, and he's not all that shallow, but he put the ball on the fly, right on the money, just a couple feet up the third base line. From this freeze-frame it looks like he's at least 70 feet beyond the infield dirt. Lo Duca caught the ball when Eckstein was about four feet away (freeze-framed again). Ecsktein also could have made the play harder by diving away from Lo Duca, instead he went straight into him to knock the ball loose (it looks like).

Anyway, I had had a few by the time this happened, but I thought at the time that Beltran doesn't usually make that play, and I still think so now.

That's not how I remember it in real time, but I believe you.

But I suppose if the throw was a couple feet up the 3b line and Eck was still ~4 feet away, we're still talking about it having been a significantly risky play. Not what the doctor ordered in the 6th inning, down 4, big bats coming up.

By a couple of feet up the line, I mean more just on the correct side of the plate. I still agree given the situation, that risky or not, if there was a chance of Eckstein being thrown out (which there was) then he shouldn't have gone. It was pretty much bang-bang though, and Beltran should get credit for a hell of a play. I'm not really trying to straddle the fence here, I'm saying bad decision, but maybe not so egregious.