USS Mariner: MLB Trade Value for 2007: Player Rankings

[Transmogrified Tiger]

One person I will question is Jeff Francoeur. He shouldn't be anywhere near this list.

Why? He's an extremely talented and young guy.

2 years ago, someone would've said the same thing about José Reyes for the same reasons. And they'd look like fools today.

There's many other players that don't need to count on a near miraculous development in plate discipline to become even a league average hitter.

[Popeye_Card]

One person I will question is Jeff Francoeur. He shouldn't be anywhere near this list.

Why? He's an extremely talented and young guy.

2 years ago, someone would've said the same thing about José Reyes for the same reasons. And they'd look like fools today.

In his "sophmore slump" season last year, he banged out 29 HR's and 103 RBI. Plus he's one of, if not the top, defensive RF in the game. All at the age of 22, when most guys are still figuring things out in AA.

There's some parts of his game to dislike (he's allergic to taking pitches, he had a 14% stolen base rate last year), but there's a heck of a lot to like.

--P--

[ToughGuy_BlueShirt]

I don't want to sound like a homer here. I remember someone on ESPN a while ago, he mentioned that with Wainwright's recent success, age and what he is making(financially) he's almost untouchable. Not saying he should be on this list but, It sounds exactly what you were talking about. I think what would hold you back is that he has only done it for 1 year and in limited duty. But, if I was the A's and you would trade me AW for Haren, I think I would do it, so I guess he would be on my list.

I can't agree. Haren's got 2 years of that performance starting, and Wainwright has yet to show he's capable of those numbers as a starter.

I was about to question Kendrick's inclusion on the list, then saw how insane his minor league numbers are, wow. One person I will question is Jeff Francoeur. He shouldn't be anywhere near this list.

That's why I said what I said in my post. Notice the BOLD, pretty much exactly what you said.

[Bo Hart]

One person I will question is Jeff Francoeur. He shouldn't be anywhere near this list.

Why? He's an extremely talented and young guy.

2 years ago, someone would've said the same thing about José Reyes for the same reasons. And they'd look like fools today.

In his "sophmore slump" season last year, he banged out 29 HR's and 103 RBI. Plus he's one of, if not the top, defensive RF in the game. All at the age of 22, when most guys are still figuring things out in AA.

There's some parts of his game to dislike (he's allergic to taking pitches, he had a 14% stolen base rate last year), but there's a heck of a lot to like.

--P--

I think both home runs and RBI's are downright horrible stats to use as a barometer for a guy who is inevitably going to have have more at-bats than anyone else (due to his plate discipline, or lack thereof). Counting stats are going to be skewed positively in a scenario like that.

His second season also consisted of a sub-.300 OBP and an OPS+ (89) lower than Juan Encarnacion. Hardly impressive on either count.

[Popeye_Card]

One person I will question is Jeff Francoeur. He shouldn't be anywhere near this list.

Why? He's an extremely talented and young guy.

2 years ago, someone would've said the same thing about José Reyes for the same reasons. And they'd look like fools today.

In his "sophmore slump" season last year, he banged out 29 HR's and 103 RBI. Plus he's one of, if not the top, defensive RF in the game. All at the age of 22, when most guys are still figuring things out in AA.

There's some parts of his game to dislike (he's allergic to taking pitches, he had a 14% stolen base rate last year), but there's a heck of a lot to like.

--P--

I think both home runs and RBI's are downright horrible stats to use as a barometer for a guy who is inevitably going to have have more at-bats than anyone else (due to his plate discipline, or lack thereof). Counting stats are going to be skewed positively in a scenario like that.

His second season also consisted of a sub-.300 OBP and an OPS+ (89) lower than Juan Encarnacion. Hardly impressive on either count.

I know that there is SABR backlash to RBI, HR's, and other counting stats, but the fact still remains that he drove in 103 runs--something SABR-diety Adam Dunn has yet to do in the Major Leagues. Scoring runs and driving in runs are the only things that really count on the scoreboard, which is the only thing that determines wins and losses. Despite a overall poor statistical season, Francouer did a lot of things right to help the Braves win games in '06.

There is clear potential for Francouer to be a consistent .300/.340/.550 guy (with peaks around .325/.375/.600), with excellent RF defense. At his cheap price tag, I think that deserves to be on this list.

--P--

[JL21]

One person I will question is Jeff Francoeur. He shouldn't be anywhere near this list.

Why? He's an extremely talented and young guy.

2 years ago, someone would've said the same thing about José Reyes for the same reasons. And they'd look like fools today.

There's many other players that don't need to count on a near miraculous development in plate discipline to become even a league average hitter.

Do they have Francoeur's talent?

[taxman]

One person I will question is Jeff Francoeur. He shouldn't be anywhere near this list.

Why? He's an extremely talented and young guy.

2 years ago, someone would've said the same thing about José Reyes for the same reasons. And they'd look like fools today.

The Braves would set land speed records in faxing the official paperwork if they were offered any of the players below him straight up.

[Bo Hart]

I know that there is SABR backlash to RBI, HR's, and other counting stats, but the fact still remains that he drove in 103 runs--something SABR-diety Adam Dunn has yet to do in the Major Leagues. Scoring runs and driving in runs are the only things that really count on the scoreboard, which is the only thing that determines wins and losses. Despite a overall poor statistical season, Francouer did a lot of things right to help the Braves win games in '06.

There is clear potential for Francouer to be a consistent .300/.340/.550 guy (with peaks around .325/.375/.600), with excellent RF defense. At his cheap price tag, I think that deserves to be on this list.

--P--

Right. And what correlates to scoring runs? Getting on base and power hitting*. Dunn usually rates well on both counts -- his OBP and SLG are always above league average.

And I guarantee you that Dunn would drive in 103 runs every year if he he ever reached 651 plate appearances. However, instead of doing that he helps his team win.

Hypothetically, if Dunn reached 651 plate appearances his numbers would look like this:
2004: 52 HR, 117 RBI
2005: 47 HR, 121 RBI
2006: 46 HR, 106 RBI

Now again: that is purely hypothetical. If Dunn changed his approach and walked less to get more "official" at-bats, those numbers undoubtedly would come out differently.

The point is though, you can't compare apples and oranges... and that's exactly what you're doing if you compare counting stats of a guy with 100 more at-bats than another.

But whatever. Scoring runs and driving runs in is ultimately all that matters. I guess guys like Dunn probably just -- to quote one of my most missed characters of the game -- "clog up the bases."

* or hitting for a decent enough average that your SLG is artificially high.

[JL21]

One person I will question is Jeff Francoeur. He shouldn't be anywhere near this list.

Why? He's an extremely talented and young guy.

2 years ago, someone would've said the same thing about José Reyes for the same reasons. And they'd look like fools today.

The Braves would set land speed records in faxing the official paperwork if they were offered any of the players below him straight up.

I'm not buying. The kid is one of the best 5-tool prospects to get to MLB in years and he's got megastar potential.

[Popeye_Card]

I know that there is SABR backlash to RBI, HR's, and other counting stats, but the fact still remains that he drove in 103 runs--something SABR-diety Adam Dunn has yet to do in the Major Leagues. Scoring runs and driving in runs are the only things that really count on the scoreboard, which is the only thing that determines wins and losses. Despite a overall poor statistical season, Francouer did a lot of things right to help the Braves win games in '06.

There is clear potential for Francouer to be a consistent .300/.340/.550 guy (with peaks around .325/.375/.600), with excellent RF defense. At his cheap price tag, I think that deserves to be on this list.

--P--

Right. And what correlates to scoring runs? Getting on base and power hitting. Dunn usually rates well on both counts -- his OBP and SLG are always above league average.

And I guarantee you that Dunn would drive in 103 runs every year if he he ever reached 651 plate appearances. However, instead of doing that he helps his team win.

Hypothetically, if Dunn reached 651 plate appearances his numbers would look like this:
2004: 52 HR, 117 RBI
2005: 47 HR, 121 RBI
2006: 46 HR, 106 RBI

Now again: that is purely hypothetical. If Dunn changed his approach and walked less to get more "official" at-bats, those numbers undoubtedly would come out differently.

The point is though, you can't compare apples and oranges... and that's exactly what you're doing if you compare counting stats of a guy with 100 more at-bats than another.

But whatever. Scoring runs and driving runs in is ultimately all that matters. I guess guys like Dunn probably just -- to quote one of my most missed characters of the game -- "clog up the bases."

You're completely misreading my thoughts on the matter.

OBP is great. I wish Francoeur did better in that department with some more walks. As it stands though, he's going to be a Nomar-esque hitter with a few more strikeouts. He swings at everything, and has the talent to drive a lot of pitches all over the strike zone all over the field. Not dink them off and hope they fall like Juan Pierre or David Eckstein--drive them.

Did he have a lot more AB's than Dunn? Sure. My point was that in a poor season for him, he still did a lot of things right to the tune of knocking 29 pitches over the boards, and driving 103 runners across the plate. At an age where many players are still getting their feet wet at AA and AAA (the latter he completely skipped).

He's a great talent at a great price. Worthy of inclusion on the list.

--P--