Explain Reyes' New Problem

[jim]

I'm really not convinced that he has "1st inning problems", or "early game problems". I think he has "problems", but I still saw improvement in his last 10 innings.

[Capt_Morgan]

It's an odd, odd thing to watch someone be so good for 4-5 innings, but crap the bed in one inning.

in the top ten of quote's

[Secret Weapon]

I think it's time we start worrying about Wainwright's problems

[longhornbaseball]

Here's the data from Reyes' last start.

Code: Select all

Pitch     Count	 Vel.    pitch %
--------------------------------
Fastball  70       89.9    73%
Change    10       76.3    10%
Curve     16       75.0    17%

Fastballs
---------
86   2
87   2
88   9
89   16
90   8
91   16
92   8
93   3

swinging strikes:  8
with a fastball:   7 (88, 90, 91, 91, 92, 93)
hits on fastball:  3
hits on change:    1
Hits on curve:     0


Inn.    fast.   pitches   fb%
-----------------------------
1st     17      19        89%
2nd     20      24        83%
3rd     14      19        74%
4th     10      19        53%
5th     5       8         63%
6th     4       7         57%

Reyes' problems (at least in the two games I've charted) have come when he starts to dick around with too many change ups and curves. In the first inning at Wrigley he only threw 17 fastballs in 28 pitches (57%) and in the 4th of this last game he only threw 10 fastballs in 19 pitches (53%).

What the numbers don't tell us (why are all these offspeed pitches hurting him?) can be seen with the eyes. His command isn't very good with changes and curves and he often is throwing them early in the count during these innings. This digs him into 2-0 and 3-1 counts where he pretty much has to throw a fastball and the hitter knows it. They sit on it and mash. Perfect example of this came during Barrett's HR at Wrigley. He threw two curves for balls to start the count and followed with a meatball right down the middle. Barrett knew it was coming and put it onto Waveland.

All of Reyes' main indicators have been very solid so far. WHIP of 1.27, K:BB of 2.5, FIP of 4.40(composite ERA based on what he can control including HR, K, BB, and HBP), ERC of 4.00(composite ERA based on all of his stats). He hasn't pitched like a 5.73 ERA pitcher even though that's where his ERA stands. I'm confident he'll rebound.

Of all our pitchers, the only one I'm a worried about is Wainwright. His command has been awful. Other than the velocity on his fastball (which has dropped to where he was as a starter in '05) his stuff has looked pretty good. He's just gotta command it better.

[jim]

Where do you get the velocity info?

[longhornbaseball]

Where do you get the velocity info?

TV. I nerd out when it comes to Reyes. I watch all of his starts at least twice, charting the pitches the second time. I think I'm going to start doing the same with Wainwright.

[skmsw]

This digs him into 2-0 and 3-1 counts where he pretty much has to throw a fastball and the hitter knows it. They sit on it and mash

I'm not sure this is accurate. According to ESPN:

Reyes after the count reaches 2-0:
9 ab, 2 hits allowed (one extra base hit)

Reyes after the count reaches 3-1:
7 AB, one hit (none for extra bases)

Overall, Reyes has thrown 15% of his pitches with the batter ahead in the count; 49% with the count even (including 0-0); and 36% with the batter behind.

Maybe he is outsmarting himself with the way he is trying to put batters away, but it does not appear that he is being crippled by bad counts.

Here's what I find interesting:

Out of 23 batters Reyes had 0-2, he went on to strike out 7 of them. For a guy who had been striking out more than a batter per inning throughout his minor league career, I think it's fair to suggest that for WHATEVER reason (pitch selection, command, health, mechanics), the problem is that he is not putting away hitters; in fact a lot of damage is being done when he is ahead in the count.

Obviously only three starts is not a lot of information. But this level of performance is pretty similar so far to 2006. So we can wonder -- having the batter behind in the count for more than twice as many pitches as they have him ahead, why is his K rate all the way down to Jeff Suppan levels this year? If the problem is still pitch selection or approach -- more than a year after of having made those changes -- isn't it time to do something else? Why are we expecting that this will just change? What is the random variation or bad luck component that suggests this performance is not equal to the execution?

My fear -- hopefully irrational -- continues to be that there is a slowly-emerging shoulder injury in there affecting his command and his stuff. I realize this is not supportable, I'm not arguing the position, don't feel the need to show me I'm wrong because I already know that I have no basis from which to argue. I'm just expressing my opinion -- I feel something ain't right, and nothing will make me happier than being wrong.

[Capt_Morgan]

I think it's time we start worrying about Wainwright's problems

i will second that thought
i"m wondering if he should be put back in the pen?

[boyer14]

Its pretty simple, really. He doesn't throw hard enough, nor does his ball move enough, for him to get by without having command within the strike zone.

If he's not throwing good strikes, its meat hanging time.

[Phyrkrakr]

Out of 23 batters Reyes had 0-2, he went on to strike out 7 of them. For a guy who had been striking out more than a batter per inning throughout his minor league career, I think it's fair to suggest that for WHATEVER reason (pitch selection, command, health, mechanics), the problem is that he is not putting away hitters; in fact a lot of damage is being done when he is ahead in the count.

From watching him so far this season, I'm getting the same impression. The problem with Reyes (imo) is that he pitches in the mold of a strikeout pitcher, yet doesn't have an out pitch with which to put guys away. Instead, he piddles around while he's ahead in the count, and ends up getting crushed.

Maybe somebody should teach the kid a splitter or work on his curveball, because, whatever he's using to put batters away, it's not working effectively so far.