We've Talked Reyes Plenty...How about Wainwright?

[Bo Hart]

Obviously I'm coming from a more pessimistic/biased viewpoint, but I think there's reason to believe that Wainwright may not straighten out at all. When you look at what he did as a starter in the minors, he was pretty mediocre in two different years at AAA(compare to Reyes, who was pretty dominant in both of his). He obviously has the stuff to turn it around(or Schuerholz wouldn't have drafted him in the first round), but at the same time I think it begs to question whether Wainwright is capable of whatever adjustment he needs to make as a starter.

Of course, in one of those seasons, he was hurt for a chunk of it and ultimately was shut down. And in that other season, his peripherals- his K/9, his K/BB- were very good.

That's what I was thinking. I was always sour on Wainwright because back then I put a lot more stock into his minor league ERA than I should have. Once I started going back and looking at his peripherals he was a lot more impressive than I thought he was.

[skmsw]

Well, I don't want to overstate anything -- he's faced what, 120 batters? Obviously nothing is definitive.

BUT we ARE seeing SOME of the effects we might have expected of a young two-pitch pitcher converting from reliever to starter:

* first time thru the order -- 848 OPS; second time thru the order -- 929 OPS

* typical velocity last year: 92-94. Typical velocity this year: 88-91

We would not expect his ERA to double as a starter, but that's where regression towards the mean, small sample size, and random variation come in. Overall, if his TRUE TALENT as a reliever was about 3.12, we'd expect as a starter he'd go about oh say 4.70.

But what is his true talent was NOT 3.12 last year? What if he just happened to throw extremely well, or be relatively unknown, or catch some good breaks (figuratively and literally), or be in a role that particularly, even more than typical, maximized his strengths and hid his limitations?

Overall, we really aren't sure yet whether he'll get better as he gains experience, or whether it's as simple as, a two-pitch pitcher with erratic command and an 88mph fastball shouldn't bring very high expectations. Maybe that sounds like a truism -- we aren't sure yet -- but after a good season as a reliever and a great post-season, expectations were pretty high. His background suggests some success, so we'll see . . .

[Michael]

Steve, I believe Wainwrights fastball hits the low 90's.

[JL21]

Also, he shows a slider and even the occasional change to accompany his fastball and curveball.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Obviously I'm coming from a more pessimistic/biased viewpoint, but I think there's reason to believe that Wainwright may not straighten out at all. When you look at what he did as a starter in the minors, he was pretty mediocre in two different years at AAA(compare to Reyes, who was pretty dominant in both of his). He obviously has the stuff to turn it around(or Schuerholz wouldn't have drafted him in the first round), but at the same time I think it begs to question whether Wainwright is capable of whatever adjustment he needs to make as a starter.

Of course, in one of those seasons, he was hurt for a chunk of it and ultimately was shut down. And in that other season, his peripherals- his K/9, his K/BB- were very good.

That's true, and he did improve in most aspects from that injury plagued season. On the other hand, he lost a significant number of K's(that also had manifested itself at AA), and was even more hittable than he was in his first go round at AAA. He's continued to give up loads of hits in his brief stint at the Major League level while walking more. Considering his repertoire, I don't think it's a huge stretch to say that it's likely that his walk rate will rise from where it was at AA(really wish we had his minor league swing-miss percentages) with more advanced hitters able to lay off his out pitch, although that's far from an absolute. Ultimately we'll have to wait and see whether Wainwright was just better at locating the curve in a shorter outing, hitters were more anxious to offer at it in late innings, or whether he's just going through a rough spell of readjusting to a starter's workload, or some combination of the 3.

[Richie Allen]

I think it's a combination of...

Learning how to pitch as a major league starter

Learning how to deal with getting hit (relievers get taken out)

A slight loss of confidence (can mean the world to a pitcher)

And slightly too high of expectations on our part. I think some of us assumed that his 12/6 curve was automatic and unhittable. We really need to give him most of this year to get settled in but I don't know if we'll have that type of patience.

[Michael]

And slightly too high of expectations on our part.

I agree but this got my heart racing:

Code: Select all

                 PECOTA        ZiPS       CHONE
Reyes             3.81         3.86       3.37
Wainwright        3.88         3.89       3.23*

*reliever

[JL21]

Considering his repertoire, I don't think it's a huge stretch to say that it's likely that his walk rate will rise from where it was at AA(really wish we had his minor league swing-miss percentages) with more advanced hitters able to lay off his out pitch, although that's far from an absolute. Ultimately we'll have to wait and see whether Wainwright was just better at locating the curve in a shorter outing, hitters were more anxious to offer at it in late innings, or whether he's just going through a rough spell of readjusting to a starter's workload, or some combination of the 3.

I think that's a pretty fair assessment. I mean really, if this wasn't his first month as a MLB starter, it wouldn't be under this type of microscope. In essence, we're talking about 2 very bad starts and one mediocre one. It's awfully tough to draw any serious conclusions from that.

[skmsw]

Steve, I believe Wainwrights fastball hits the low 90's.

OK. I'd stand by a typical range of "88-91," but am open to a more accurate description if you've got one. Personally, I think he hits upper 80's too often to call it "low 90's," though.

Also, he shows a slider and even the occasional change to accompany his fastball and curveball.

I haven't seen him throw those pitches more than two or three times each in a game. Maybe I'm missing them, but they do not seem like he uses them enough, nor have they been effective enough, to really call them "part of his arsenal" so far. Again, though, maybe I've just missed them, I'm very open to that.