I think I started drooling trying to understand any of these posts.
Hope for Wells/Waino/Reyes?
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skmsw
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I enjoyed your post. It makes sense, but it does overlook a few things that make the picture a little less rosy -- or at least, a lot less clear.
DER is a tough measure to interpret precisely in small doses. That is, in Wainwright's 30 innings pitched or so, is the DER low because he is the victim of limited defensive support? Or, is the DER low because he has been hit hard, and is giving up disproportionately many balls that are unplayable? Or, is it bad luck, that the defense has been fine, the balls have not been hard hit, but have been, as luck would have it, hit where they ain't?
In sum, it's hard to use DER to call Wainwright a victim of poor defense; it is equally possible that the defense has been the victim of Wainwright allowing balls to get smacked around.
Similar concepts apply to your assessment of FIP. For instance, Reyes has been good so far at limiting home runs against. But when he is getting hit, he is getting hit hard -- not ALL of FDP and BAA is random, and when your slugging-against is almost 200 points higher than your BAA, FIP is overlooking the fact that your defense is chasing stuff hit hard to gaps. Six doubles allowed in FIVE starts may not sound like a lot, especially since he's allowed relatively few home runs so far this year -- BUT on the other hand, he's lasted just 28 innings in those five starts, and 6 doubles, a couple triples and a few home runs in 28 IP is an extra base hit every two and a half innings. That means that while he is not giving up a lot of baserunners, when he gets hit, he gets hit fairly hard.
by the way, Wainwright has this same dynamic. He's given up 9 doubles, a triple, and three homers in 29 IP. He is limiting walks, and keeping the ball in the park -- but giving up that many extra base hits in that "many" innings is not bad luck that FIP is filtering out -- it's throwing too many hittable pitches. Which may or may not improve; we don't really know which just from FIP and DER.
DER is a tough measure to interpret precisely in small doses. That is, in Wainwright's 30 innings pitched or so, is the DER low because he is the victim of limited defensive support? Or, is the DER low because he has been hit hard, and is giving up disproportionately many balls that are unplayable? Or, is it bad luck, that the defense has been fine, the balls have not been hard hit, but have been, as luck would have it, hit where they ain't?
In sum, it's hard to use DER to call Wainwright a victim of poor defense; it is equally possible that the defense has been the victim of Wainwright allowing balls to get smacked around.
Similar concepts apply to your assessment of FIP. For instance, Reyes has been good so far at limiting home runs against. But when he is getting hit, he is getting hit hard -- not ALL of FDP and BAA is random, and when your slugging-against is almost 200 points higher than your BAA, FIP is overlooking the fact that your defense is chasing stuff hit hard to gaps. Six doubles allowed in FIVE starts may not sound like a lot, especially since he's allowed relatively few home runs so far this year -- BUT on the other hand, he's lasted just 28 innings in those five starts, and 6 doubles, a couple triples and a few home runs in 28 IP is an extra base hit every two and a half innings. That means that while he is not giving up a lot of baserunners, when he gets hit, he gets hit fairly hard.
by the way, Wainwright has this same dynamic. He's given up 9 doubles, a triple, and three homers in 29 IP. He is limiting walks, and keeping the ball in the park -- but giving up that many extra base hits in that "many" innings is not bad luck that FIP is filtering out -- it's throwing too many hittable pitches. Which may or may not improve; we don't really know which just from FIP and DER.
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maddash
- is eerily well-versed on Project Runway and irony
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Question. How does Wainwright's LD% come into play as far as determining how hard he's getting hit? I always assumed that if Wainwright was really getting hit hard, his LD% would increase proportionately. Am I missing something there?skmsw wrote:I enjoyed your post. It makes sense, but it does overlook a few things that make the picture a little less rosy -- or at least, a lot less clear.
DER is a tough measure to interpret precisely in small doses. That is, in Wainwright's 30 innings pitched or so, is the DER low because he is the victim of limited defensive support? Or, is the DER low because he has been hit hard, and is giving up disproportionately many balls that are unplayable? Or, is it bad luck, that the defense has been fine, the balls have not been hard hit, but have been, as luck would have it, hit where they ain't?
In sum, it's hard to use DER to call Wainwright a victim of poor defense; it is equally possible that the defense has been the victim of Wainwright allowing balls to get smacked around.
Similar concepts apply to your assessment of FIP. For instance, Reyes has been good so far at limiting home runs against. But when he is getting hit, he is getting hit hard -- not ALL of FDP and BAA is random, and when your slugging-against is almost 200 points higher than your BAA, FIP is overlooking the fact that your defense is chasing stuff hit hard to gaps. Six doubles allowed in FIVE starts may not sound like a lot, especially since he's allowed relatively few home runs so far this year -- BUT on the other hand, he's lasted just 28 innings in those five starts, and 6 doubles, a couple triples and a few home runs in 28 IP is an extra base hit every two and a half innings. That means that while he is not giving up a lot of baserunners, when he gets hit, he gets hit fairly hard.
by the way, Wainwright has this same dynamic. He's given up 9 doubles, a triple, and three homers in 29 IP. He is limiting walks, and keeping the ball in the park -- but giving up that many extra base hits in that "many" innings is not bad luck that FIP is filtering out -- it's throwing too many hittable pitches. Which may or may not improve; we don't really know which just from FIP and DER.
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DynamicDynamite
- Veteran Player
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well I dont know many of the complex stats that are being thrown about, but I know just from watching Reyes pitch yesterday that he is doing a lot better this time out and even the last time than he had in a few of his starts.
He wasnt the reason we lost the game yesterday. The defense, and lack of hitting was the reason the Cardinals lost the game. I was making reference in the chat that Reyes was looking like he had regained his strikeout pitch with pitching down in the zone some more(guess Duncan is getting him to do that again.)...
It wasnt until the misplays in the field(5th inning?) that things started to unravel. Now I am not saying his 4 walks didnt hurt him, but he only gave up 3 runs. Then you had the miscall at second base...
In all honesty Reyes should be looking at a sub 5.00 era right now, and if not a win at least a no decision after the game yesterday...
but when you get the bases loaded(for like the countless number of times they have had this year) and cant do anything with it then that is why these guys look bad in most instances..
And then we all know Wainwright just cant get that looping curve over... he isnt the only one who has had problems with it as Zito has a similar curve and sometimes he has problems getting it over...
I think Wainwright and Reyes will get better.... now we just have to hope that they can do it in time and with getting Carp back that it will just continue to get better overrall..
He wasnt the reason we lost the game yesterday. The defense, and lack of hitting was the reason the Cardinals lost the game. I was making reference in the chat that Reyes was looking like he had regained his strikeout pitch with pitching down in the zone some more(guess Duncan is getting him to do that again.)...
It wasnt until the misplays in the field(5th inning?) that things started to unravel. Now I am not saying his 4 walks didnt hurt him, but he only gave up 3 runs. Then you had the miscall at second base...
In all honesty Reyes should be looking at a sub 5.00 era right now, and if not a win at least a no decision after the game yesterday...
but when you get the bases loaded(for like the countless number of times they have had this year) and cant do anything with it then that is why these guys look bad in most instances..
And then we all know Wainwright just cant get that looping curve over... he isnt the only one who has had problems with it as Zito has a similar curve and sometimes he has problems getting it over...
I think Wainwright and Reyes will get better.... now we just have to hope that they can do it in time and with getting Carp back that it will just continue to get better overrall..
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longhornbaseball
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From another post:
Of all pitcher's with component ERA's of 4.50 or lower, only Kip Wells has a higher ERA than Reyes. Of all pitchers with WHIP's of 1.30 or less, again only Wells has a higher ERA. And of all pitchers with FIP's of 4.50 or lower only Russ Ortiz, Dave Bush, and Zach Duke have higher ERA's than Reyes.
As its stands right now I'm optimistic about Reyes and Wells but worried about Wainwright. His BABIP won't stay at .360 all year but there's reason to believe it will be above average. In his last full year of starting (2005) his BABIP was .318. Like Steve said, his pitches are much more hittable as a starter. What really concerns me is his lack of command. He's struggling to consistently throw his fastball for strikes and he's rolled a lot of curves. His K/BB is a paltry 1.31 and that has been one of his strengths in the past. I still believe he can rebound and have a good year but unlike Reyes and Wells, he's got to start pitching better.
Of all pitcher's with component ERA's of 4.50 or lower, only Kip Wells has a higher ERA than Reyes. Of all pitchers with WHIP's of 1.30 or less, again only Wells has a higher ERA. And of all pitchers with FIP's of 4.50 or lower only Russ Ortiz, Dave Bush, and Zach Duke have higher ERA's than Reyes.
As its stands right now I'm optimistic about Reyes and Wells but worried about Wainwright. His BABIP won't stay at .360 all year but there's reason to believe it will be above average. In his last full year of starting (2005) his BABIP was .318. Like Steve said, his pitches are much more hittable as a starter. What really concerns me is his lack of command. He's struggling to consistently throw his fastball for strikes and he's rolled a lot of curves. His K/BB is a paltry 1.31 and that has been one of his strengths in the past. I still believe he can rebound and have a good year but unlike Reyes and Wells, he's got to start pitching better.