Keith Law's NL Central comments

mikechamp · Post by **mikechamp** » May 3 07, 2:10 pm

From an ESPN chat. It was 2 hours long.

Mandatory Linkage: http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=15609
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Everyone is saying Vitters to the cubs at 3, is this what you are also hearing? Who can you offer as a MLB comparable?

Keith Law
Vitters or Matt Wieters, although their scouting director, Tim Wilken, has been seeing a lot of players lately, including Philippe Aumont and even Devin Mesoraco. Vitters reminds me a lot of David Wright (v. 2006) - high average, lots of doubles, but not a 40 HR guy, with good defense.
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If the brewers go up 10 games can i book playoff tickets? Their bullpen is filthy and the hitting will be too.

Keith Law
The hitting's good, the starting pitching is good and I think has a chance to get better. Not sure that Turnbow can keep this up all year, and I worry that their defense will hurt them in the long run. I know I'm a broken record, but I'd get Braun ready to play the outfield and put Hall back at 3b if I had to.
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If there could be a do-over on the 2004 draft, who are the top five picks? That first round was pretty loaded.

Keith Law
I'd have to think Seattle would take Tulowitzki or Braun over Clement. But yes, that was a heck of a year.
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Adam LaRoache is off to a terrible start. While I know he isn't this bad, I don't think he is the savior the Pirates thought they were getting. Seems to have a long swing and poor pitch recognition. Your thoughts?

Keith Law
Unless he's hurt, he's not going to hit .123 against righties all year. He's a nice player, probably needs a platoon mate. The Braves sold high.
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Rank 'em: Bailey, Pelfey, Lincecum.

Keith Law
Lincecum as a reliever, Bailey, Lincecum as a starter, Pelfrey. I do like Pelfrey - huge upside there - but he's been rushed and has a lot of developing left to do.
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Hunter Pence... is he the real deal? if so... what are your projections for him this season?

Keith Law
He is the real deal - unorthodox, but it works. RH power bat in that stadium should mean lots of homers.
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Is Houston really this bad?

Keith Law
Yes - it's a poorly constructed team, and with Pence and Albers up, they've kind of used up all their bullets, too.
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Keith, if the Cubs go after Vitters and he rises through the minors quickly what do you do with the long-term committments to Lee, Ramirez, and Soriano clogging up 3 potential positions he could play? Does Weiters get an edge because of this?

Keith Law
I do think that's an edge for Wieters, as well as his speed to the majors. But Wilken's history has always been to just take the best player and let the surpluses work themselves out.
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If he ends up being draft eligible, where does Max Scherzer go?

Keith Law
Great question - I'm guessing a big-market team pops him in the sandwich round, Boston, Mets, Yanks, maybe Rangers or Cards (both teams with histories of taking Boras clients).
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Please help an ignorant fan: how do the Cubs still have a first round draft pick after signing so many free agents? Would they forfeit it to the Nationals for the Soriano signing, or to the Jays for the Lilly signing?

Keith Law
You can't lose your first-round pick if it's in the top 15 (first half). The Cubs pick at #3, and then again at #1047.
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what do you make of josh hamiltons recent struggles?

Keith Law
To be expected. There will be a lot of up-and-down for him this year. The quality of a lot of his ABs is a positive sign.
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When does Littlefied get fired and when can you start?

Keith Law
There is this house in Shadyside my wife had her eye on ... seriously, I was told that Littlefield was going to get the first half to get some progress at the ML level. They're right around .500, but they're 6-14 against non-Astro teams, so I think it's a good question whether they've made progress or not.
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Keith, in your esteemed opinion, which teams do the best job of developing players and which do the worst?

Keith Law
Seattle and Pittsburgh have really struggled to develop players, as have the Giants and Rangers (pitching in particular). Best ... Cleveland, Boston, the Mets are clearly doing something right even though it's often unorthodox, Detroit, Milwaukee, and the Dodgers until the guys reach the majors.
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What would be your strategy to win in a small market ie Pittsburgh?

Keith Law
Ties with the last question - it is entirely about scouting and player development. They need to do a better job with their high draft picks, and they need to reduce the high attrition rate of prospects in their system. If they can't build a core from within, they're toast.
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Back to development/scouting/drafting, isn't much of that function of money? The Pirates took Bullington instead of Upton because of $$$$. Also, they spend less on scouting and development.

Keith Law
Scouting and PD costs are tiny potatoes compared to what's spent at the major league level. PD in particular is about planning, instruction, and accountability - a management problem, not a cash one.
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Hungary Jack · Post by **Hungary Jack** » May 3 07, 2:13 pm

[The Pirates] are 6-14 against non-Astro teams

I don't know if this is more insulting to the Pirates or the Astros.

BW23 · Post by **BW23** » May 3 07, 2:15 pm

If he ends up being draft eligible, where does Max Scherzer go?

Keith Law
Great question - I'm guessing a big-market team pops him in the sandwich round, Boston, Mets, Yanks, maybe Rangers or Cards (both teams with histories of taking Boras clients).

I'd love for the Cards to get him.

Transmogrified Tiger · Post by **Transmogrified Tiger** » May 3 07, 2:18 pm

I would be a sad panda if Scherzer got drafted by the Cards.

Also, that is a typo in the Cubs draft question. After #3, they pick again at #48(Supplemental for Pierre).

thrill · Post by **thrill** » May 3 07, 2:19 pm

BW23 wrote:
If he ends up being draft eligible, where does Max Scherzer go?

Keith Law
Great question - I'm guessing a big-market team pops him in the sandwich round, Boston, Mets, Yanks, maybe Rangers or Cards (both teams with histories of taking Boras clients).
I'd love for the Cards to get him.

+

mikechamp · Post by **mikechamp** » May 3 07, 2:27 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:I would be a sad panda if Scherzer got drafted by the Cards.

Also, that is a typo in the Cubs draft question. After #3, they pick again at #48(Supplemental for Pierre).

I think Keith forgot to use the dark blue sarcasm font.

Asmodai · Post by **Asmodai** » May 3 07, 2:36 pm

Vitt's gonna have to hit a lot. Whenever I hear someone talk about a "professional hitter" or a "pure hitter," I think of Jeff Cirillo. It's funny Adam Dunn's skillset isn't ever graded as a "pure hitter" but his skillset usually grades out as one of the best offensive players. To me "pure hitter" is a guy who hits line drives but can't hit home runs but the scouts love the swing.

/rant.

No Vitters plz.

Hungary Jack · Post by **Hungary Jack** » May 3 07, 2:42 pm

Mephistopheles wrote:Vitt's gonna have to hit a lot. Whenever I hear someone talk about a "professional hitter" or a "pure hitter," I think of Jeff Cirillo. It's funny Adam Dunn's skillset isn't ever graded as a "pure hitter" but his skillset usually grades out as one of the best offensive players. To me "pure hitter" is a guy who hits line drives but can't hit home runs but the scouts love the swing.

/rant.

No Vitters plz.

It's really difficult to read your posts with that avatar, darnit.

Asmodai · Post by **Asmodai** » May 3 07, 2:54 pm

personally, i hate pancakes

StL Dan · Post by **StL Dan** » May 3 07, 2:54 pm

I'd love to see Scherzer return to Missouri and play for the Cards.