Good Thing Wellemeyer's a Competitor

[Fat Strat]

Wellemeyer straightens out
By Derrick Goold
ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH
Monday, Jun. 11 2007

The tipping point for Todd Wellemeyer's third career start came in the fourth
inning with the bases loaded and the Los Angeles Angels threatening. Not that
he noticed any difference.

"That was almost like the third," Wellemeyer said, "or the ... fifth inning."

It was in the fourth inning of a 9-6 win, however, that he ducked the damage
done to two previous Cardinal starters. The righthander allowed just one run in
the inning before he got two fly outs. LA stranded three that inning, the
righthander trudged on, and by the time Wellemeyer (2-0) finished his start one
out into the sixth inning, he had a lead.

As a Cardinals starter, Wellemeyer has yet to finish the sixth inning or have
an outing that didn't feel like he was tiptoeing through trouble.

"He and we won that game because he never stopped competing," manager Tony La
Russa said. "He never gave in. ... It started to rain (in the fourth) and there
were a lot of ways for a 'not my day' response, and he responded the other way."

Plucked off waivers from Kansas City in mid-May, Wellemeyer is the latest
reliever-turned-starter for the Cardinals. His minor-league record is loaded
with starts, but he has numerous walks — a concern for a team looking to
protect its bullpen.

On Sunday, Wellemeyer got reassurance from La Russa — "I made a point to
compliment him during the game," the manager said — and pointers from the
dugout that steered him through trouble. Wellemeyer tends to fly off to the
sides of the mound and leave his pitches up in the zone.

That's when pitching coach Dave Duncan would holler from the dugout and catcher
Kelly Stinnett would remind Wellemeyer: Stay straight.

"They wanted my momentum headed toward the plate," he said.

Wellemeyer hit the Angels' No. 8 batter to grease their three-run rally in the
third inning, and in the fourth the first two Angels reached base on singles. A
third single with one out scored a run, and then Wellemeyer couldn't outlast
pinch-hitter Nathan Haynes.

The Angel fought off Wellemeyer's best for a walk. The Cardinals bullpen
stirred. But La Russa stayed with Wellemeyer, and Wellemeyer stayed straight.

Riding his fastball — consistently in the mid-90s — he got Angels leadoff
hitter Reggie Willits and Chone Figgins to pop up. Just before Albert Pujols
delivered the lead for him, Wellemeyer struck out two batters in the fifth,
giving him a dozen strikeouts in 14 innings as a starter. The Cardinals as
result have more wins in games he has started (3-0) than they do with Kip Wells
and Anthony Reyes combined.

"When I was starting two years ago (in the minors), I had some good outings
that were easy and I was like, 'Wow, this is how it should be right here,'"
Wellemeyer said. "But lately, yeah, it's been a grind. I've been coming out of
the 'pen and just throwing everything I have at them. Now I come out there and
start, you've got to get through as long as you can. ... I'd like to go six
full innings, but, I mean, 5 1/3 is better than my last."

Granted that article is not all smiles at giggles at Wellemeyer's performance, but are we really going to complement Wellemeyer on his gritty performance yesterday or so far this season?

In the rotation, Wellemeyer has pitched 14 innings, allowing 10 runs (9 earned), 2 HR's, and 9 walks. He has not made it past the 6th inning in those starts, and has received 21 runs of support over his three starts.

People have complained about Reyes' OPS against, etc. (.259 .324 .446 .770). Look at these #'s from Wellemeyer: .291 .400 .455 .855.

I just wonder how long this whole experiement is going to last. I haven't seen anything in Wellemeyer's starts which indicate that he is capable of harnessing his arm and putting together some quality starts. I definitly don't see anything in his career totals that indicate it either. 1 season with an era in the 4's. 0 seasons with a whip under 1.5.

Yet, we're hearing things like this...

The Cardinals as result have more wins in games he has started (3-0) than they do with Kip Wells and Anthony Reyes combined.

And

"He and we won that game because he never stopped competing," manager Tony La Russa said. "He never gave in. ... It started to rain (in the fourth) and there were a lot of ways for a 'not my day' response, and he responded the other way."

[Secret Weapon]

he just knows how to win

[clevername]

he has a much higher LEORP than Reyes or Wells.

[JL21]

jason, you're busting his chops over some pretty small sample sizes. In his three starts, he has:

-walked 1 in 5 IP
-walked 2 in 5.1 IP
-walked 6 in 3.2 IP

So the 9 walks and talk of harnessing his arm is a bit premature and misleading. He went out against a very, very good Angels team and kept his team in the game. Going 5 and 5.1 IP is precisely what they were getting out of Reyes.

Personally, I'd rather have Reyes, but Wellemeyer has a much better arm right now and he's sufficient as a stop-gap until they bring Reyes back. By the way, Wellemeyer's 3-start ERA is 5.78.... actually better than Reyes 6.08.

[TGantz]

I like Wellemeyer as a starter. I wouldn't mind if he was our fifth starter. The problem is that Thompson, Wells, and Wainwright should also be bottom of the rotation guys right now. We need Carpenter and Mulder back soon...

[skmsw]

jason, you're busting his chops over some pretty small sample sizes. In his three starts, he has:

-walked 1 in 5 IP
-walked 2 in 5.1 IP
-walked 6 in 3.2 IP

So the 9 walks and talk of harnessing his arm is a bit premature and misleading. He went out against a very, very good Angels team and kept his team in the game. Going 5 and 5.1 IP is precisely what they were getting out of Reyes.

Personally, I'd rather have Reyes, but Wellemeyer has a much better arm right now and he's sufficient as a stop-gap until they bring Reyes back. By the way, Wellemeyer's 3-start ERA is 5.78.... actually better than Reyes 6.08.

I don't disagree with what I see as your two main points: first, that three starts is not very long, and second, that the guy he replaced had been terrible.

But in fairness to Strat, what he said was --

I haven't seen anything in Wellemeyer's starts which indicate that he is capable of harnessing his arm and putting together some quality starts. I definitly don't see anything in his career totals that indicate it either.

And I think that's a perfectly fair point. None of the three starts are what you'd call good; in one, he allowed only one line drive, but gave up two homers. In another he allowed only one line drive, but walked six. In the third he gave up five line drives. Watching him pitch, there has not been a lot to like; alternating giving up very hard hit balls, with not being able to find the strike zone.

Small sample size problems apply not only to statistical interpretations, but to eyeball observations too -- so your point is definitely fair, we may not have seen all he has to offer yet. But watching him does not lend a whole lot of encouragement that it's in there waiting to come out; he would seem to be the living, breathing example of "replacement level." Our biggest problem is, the guy he replaced was pitching below replacement level.

[Fat Strat]

jason, you're busting his chops over some pretty small sample sizes.

I placed that within the context of his entire career. If that's not enough, then I can include the minors as well. Minor league career era of 4.15, a whip of 1.39, and a BB9 of almost 4. He has 7 years of MLB and MiLB stats to support the idea he is incapable of harnessing his arm and being successful as a starter or even as a reliever.

As far as Reyes vs. Wellemeyer, that's not really my point, as we've been over that already many times.

It's the idea that for some reason Wellemeyer's performance yesterday is a winning one. That he was really competitive, and worthy of complements for gutting it out. As if it was Wellemeyer's gritty 4th inning that won the game for us, not Pujols' 2 hr's, and our 9 runs of offense.

It presents the idea that Wellemeyer has been better than his era, walk totals, er's, etc. show, and in the process somehow manages to make his struggles into positives and his mistakes into progress.

It's similar to what has happened in the past with Simontacchi, Joe McEwing or any number of other players who were pretty bad, but somehow managed to escape being judged by what they actually do on the field.

I just want to head that attitude off before it has a chance to get rolling. Let's just face the facts with Todd Wellemeyer. He's not any more or less gritty than the next stopgap starter. He's not any more a winner than a dozen other guys we could throw in there.

[haltz]

He went out against a very, very good Angels team and kept his team in the game. Going 5 and 5.1 IP is precisely what they were getting out of Reyes.

The Angels are a very good team, and Wellemeyer didn't implode so that they never had a chance to get back in it. Comparing this to Reyes though from an ER and IP and a "keeping them in the game" standpoint his outings looked like this:

Code: Select all

IP   5  5  6  6  6  6  5  5.2  5.2
ER   3  3  4  4  4  2  3   7    5

OK, we all know that those last two starts are terrible, and some of the others aren't so hot in an ER sense. But maybe if the Cardinals had scored 6 through 5 a couple of times for Reyes we all would have seen that he really does have the heart of a lion. And if he had some dubyas he'd probably not be in the minors at this point in my opinion, but whatever, that's been talked about.

Anyway, what I could stomach in that article obviously was BS.

[greenback44]

As far as Reyes vs. Wellemeyer, that's not really my point, as we've been over that already many times.

It's the idea that for some reason Wellemeyer's performance yesterday is a winning one. That he was really competitive, and worthy of complements for gutting it out. As if it was Wellemeyer's gritty 4th inning that won the game for us, not Pujols' 2 hr's, and our 9 runs of offense.

TLR's going to say something nice about his pitcher, especially after a win and double-especially since everybody has the comparisons between Reyes and Wellemeyer loaded up and ready to go. With 2300 career wins worth of experience, the best TLR could come up with was "he competed." That suggests to me TLR knows Wellemeyer sucks, but he's too much of a corporate guy to say so in as many words.

[sighyoung]

That's a good point, Fat, although I think the article was mainly differentiating Wellemeyer from Looper and Wells in a key trouble inning during the series. Phrased differently, the writer could have easily written about the fourth inning "that could have been the ball game right there."

In truth, Wellemeyer and the writer admit his struggles. Duncan's constant reminders about his mechanics, and La Russa's encouragement only seem to be the necessary steps to keep his head focused. "Gutting it out" simply means he listened to his manager and pitching coach at a key time.

Accordingly, I don't really see excessive praise here.