Adam Dunn Stinks

Secret Weapon · Post by **Secret Weapon** » June 12 07, 4:37 am

vh2k6 wrote: Duncan should be in the lineup every day

are we still 100% convinced of this?

his post April stats are pretty ugly

GatewaySnayke · Post by **GatewaySnayke** » June 12 07, 6:52 am

I'll say this:

No, the Reds wouldn't trade Dunn to St. Louis. Krivsky isn't bright, but he's not totally inept either.

Dunn would add mucho punch to the offense and his strikeouts would get annoying, but his 400-foot bombs would ease the pain pretty quickly I'm guessing. He's probably the best Three True Outcomes player in a long while.

jim · Post by **jim** » June 12 07, 7:11 am

cabby7588 wrote:You would really take Dunn? I don't know, he just doesn't do it for me. Sure the guy can hit some bombs, but there's just nothing more painful than a bunch of strikeouts (Preston Wilson, please stay hurt.)

To me, there is nothing more painful that a bunch of goose eggs on the board. The Cardinals are 2nd in terms of fewest strikeouts, but 28th in runs scored. I'd take Dunn.

jim · Post by **jim** » June 12 07, 7:12 am

whyhellothere wrote:
vh2k6 wrote: Duncan should be in the lineup every day
are we still 100% convinced of this?

his post April stats are pretty ugly

I never was convinced of it. Just not sold on Duncan.

Hungary Jack · Post by **Hungary Jack** » June 12 07, 7:20 am

Steve Phillips is not a moron.

He just says moronic things.

haltz · Post by **haltz** » June 12 07, 7:25 am

Dunn would add mucho punch to the offense and his strikeouts would get annoying, but his 400-foot bombs would ease the pain pretty quickly I'm guessing. He's probably the best Three True Outcomes player in a long while.

Saw this on his BRef page and thought it was kind of funny. 50%!:

Rob Deer Fan Club sponsor(s) this page.

The Three True Outcomes: The Home Run, the Base on Balls, and the Strikeout. Potentially the first HOF'er with over 50% TTO. 49.88% career TTO%

Sure the guy can hit some bombs, but there's just nothing more painful than a bunch of strikeouts

He has a career .377 OBP. I think outs in general are annoying, and Dunn makes less than your average player. Much less than some of the scrubs the Cards are running out there right now.

I like Dunn a lot, but I'm not sure how out of my way I'd go for him when I'm potentially getting a 120 OPS+ with abysmal defense (UZR had him at -19 in LF last year!). Yes he'd make the lineup better though, of course.

Jocephus · Post by **Jocephus** » June 12 07, 7:47 am

simple...put dunn at first base and move albert in lf...thats not a risk

Popeye_Card · Post by **Popeye_Card** » June 12 07, 7:53 am

Have we ever talked about Adam Dunn's K's before?

Adam Dunn rally killer? You decide.

Player A: 3720 PA, -56.56 cummulative negative WPA, +69.71 cummulative positive WPA

Player B: 4320 PA, -53.90 negative WPA, +86.74 positive WPA

Player C: 4788 PA, -64.36 negative WPA, +64.58 positive WPA

Weighted per 600 PA's.

A: -9.12, +11.24, net +2.12
B: -7.49, +12.05, net +4.56
C: -8.07, +8.09, net +0.02

Highlight to reveal the mystery players and commentary.

Player A: Adam Dunn. Home run, walk, and stikeout machine.
Player B: Albert Pujols. Baseball god.
Player C: Juan Pierre. Out machine. Not confused with Babe Ruth.

Dunn's OBP is near average of the other two. His slugging percentage is closer to Pujols', but still near average of the two. His WPA? Probably what you would expect--near the average of the two.

My personal verdict on Dunn: People have been expecting him to "bust out" for a while now, but he keeps doing the same ol' thing. His OBP is actually slowly declining, and it's only been above .400 one season. His slugging has stayed more or less constant. His batting average has stayed more or less constant. If you want a .250/.375/.525 guy with a ton of K's, then Dunn can be your man. Just don't be expecting much more than that. Problem is, I expect that he's going to start getting paid for more than that starting in 2008.

If you really lust for Dunn and think Cinci won't trade him to the Cards, you could lust for Pat Burrell instead. They're very similar players, and in '08 Burrell may be making less money.

--P--

Popeye_Card · Post by **Popeye_Card** » June 12 07, 7:56 am

haltz wrote:and Dunn makes less than your average player. Much less than some of the scrubs the Cards are running out there right now.

Dunn is making $10.5 million in 2007, and has a $13 million '08 club option with a $0.5 million buyout.

I slightly mis-spoke with my comparison player--he will make $14 million next season--slightly more expensive.

--P--

EDIT: Oops--thought you were talking about making less money, not making less outs. My mistake.

jagtrader · Post by **jagtrader** » June 12 07, 8:05 am

Not worth the money or the prospects it will take to get him.