2008 Payroll Thread

[Fat Strat]

Pineiro has a mutual option for $4M. He can probably do better, but it would not surprise me to see him sign here for $5M or so.

Pineiro didn't reach enough of his incentives to have the option kick in so he's just a regular old free agent.

I've become less concerned with payroll,

Me too, since knowing the payroll and the budget tells you very little about what the Cards will actually do. In '07 when we did the math, we saw how much the Cards had and expected them to sign players. They didn't and still ended up with a payroll about what they projected... $102 million if you believe the PD.

That said, knowing how much head room we have can make our winter conversations more informed and allow us to keep our FA expectations more in check.

Haltz, I would love for you to update your spreadsheet if you have time. I tried to do arrange mine to be a little closer to your method this year, and I'm curious if we come up with similar numbers. I'm hoping that I've missed something or put some stuff in that doesn't need to be there. Anything we can do to free up some space would be good.

I don't think we'll pick up So's option for $1.1M, though stranger things have happened.

I don't think we should either. We have enough OF options that are cheaper and probably just as good.

Do we get an insurence money if Juan and Carp and Mulder are out for the year?

We might get some insurance money on some of those players, but it's not always for the full salary, and they usually don't release information on that kind of thing. Best to assume we won't be getting any (especially since Carp and Mulder will certainly play at some point in the season, and JuanE's salary might not be high enough to warrant taking out insurance).

I assume mean beyond the reported $105M. What do you think the payroll number would need to be raised to in order to make "substantial improvements"?

$110 million. I agree with Duncan's assessment. We need 2 top-notch starting pitchers to be competitive. I would take my chances with our offense if we could support Wainwright with a true #2 and a solid #3. That would give us..

#2 - AW
#2 - FA
#3 - FA
#4 - Looper
#5 - Mulder/Pineiro

When Carp's ready you can move Looper back to the pen or, well, you'll probably have an injury by then anyway.

I haven't looked at the FA list yet, but that's what I would do. I would also just resign Eckstein or try our darndest to trade for Renteria. I would be satisfied with this club offensively and with the pitching if we got Renteria and a #2 starter + Pineiro. I'll write off the year if we get Eckstein and don't sign an impact pitcher. We'll be a sub .500 team again, mostly because of the injuriest to Carp, Rolen, Edmonds, and Mulder.

[haltz]

Haltz, I would love for you to update your spreadsheet if you have time. I tried to do arrange mine to be a little closer to your method this year, and I'm curious if we come up with similar numbers. I'm hoping that I've missed something or put some stuff in that doesn't need to be there. Anything we can do to free up some space would be good.

I'm working on it right now actually. I'm going to start from scratch though, I think. I have a guaranteed payroll of $73M for next year, with 12 more spots at the minimum at least, plus Yadi, plus $5M in incentives and $11M in options including Pineiro. So that's something like $97M that they could pay players without making any real changes other than some guys walking. However, that realistically could be as low as $80M if they wanted to go some different directions.

Hopefully that will all be a little clearer once I finish this.

[Hungary Jack]

Thanks for the update on Pineiro's option situation.

A note about long-term disability (Juan): this type of coverage is usually 60-70% of pay, so I would imagine that this portion of Juan's salary is covered if he's unable to play.

[JL21]

A lot of money could be cleared by trading Rolen. Of course, then you've got a completely different hole on your roster.

[Fat Strat]

A lot of money could be cleared by trading Rolen. Of course, then you've got a completely different hole on your roster.

I think we're stuck with Rolen, and that might not be a bad thing. If his surgery can just get him back close to his '06 offensive production then I'll have no problem with him as a $12 million Gold Glove 3bman.

2006 Runs Created - 101
2007 Runs Created - 51

That's obviously a huge difference.

Let's take a look at one more area that can be improved on offense without spending more money. Kennedy...

2006 Runs Created - 55
2007 Runs Created - 22

If those guys can simply return to their last productive years, which are at or lower that their career averages, we will be significantly improved on offense.

Finally, JuanE + Preston Wilson, Cards' RF for the first couple months vs. what Ankiel did in his month of action.

2007 Combined Runs Created in just over 100 combined games - 43

Ankiel - 2007 Runs Created in 47 games - 31

Offensively, I don't think we're in that much trouble, as long as the players we've invested in actually perform at normal or even just below normal levels. I would like to add a bat, but better yet, I would rather trade a bat for a pitcher and then sign a replacement bat.

[haltz]

OK, I did this fairly quickly so I'd appreciate it if anyone sees any mistakes if they'd point them out so I can change it.



Notes:

• Options are option amount minus buyout.
• Guaranteed 2008 includes the minimum salary ($390K) multiplied by the 14 empty roster spots ("non-guaranteed" I guess you could say) to bump the total by $5.46M. It doesn't really matter that someone like Wainwright will make a little more than that, and there is technically no commitment to the arbitration eligible players. If I had to guess, Ankiel and Molina would probably make a million each or so. I'll leave the projections of that sort of thing up to Fat Strat.
• I'm positive I missed some bonuses, but a lot of them are really stupid and unattainable.
• $3.75M of 2008 incentives are based on Mulder's games started. His 2009 option will equal $11M -- he can't mathematically increase it beyond that now.
• I left off Pineiro's 2008 incentives as they are all based on games finished. Same for Looper, although I could see that possibly changing.
• That should be everyone that saw ML time this year, that is still under control or has contractual ties for next year. This does not include free agents that we can offer arbitration to (e.g., Eckstein, Springer).

[JL21]

A lot of money could be cleared by trading Rolen. Of course, then you've got a completely different hole on your roster.

I think we're stuck with Rolen, and that might not be a bad thing. If his surgery can just get him back close to his '06 offensive production then I'll have no problem with him as a $12 million Gold Glove 3bman.

2006 Runs Created - 101
2007 Runs Created - 51

That's obviously a huge difference.

Let's take a look at one more area that can be improved on offense without spending more money. Kennedy...

2006 Runs Created - 55
2007 Runs Created - 22

If those guys can simply return to their last productive years, which are at or lower that their career averages, we will be significantly improved on offense.

Finally, JuanE + Preston Wilson, Cards' RF for the first couple months vs. what Ankiel did in his month of action.

2007 Combined Runs Created in just over 100 combined games - 43

Ankiel - 2007 Runs Created in 47 games - 31

Offensively, I don't think we're in that much trouble, as long as the players we've invested in actually perform at normal or even just below normal levels. I would like to add a bat, but better yet, I would rather trade a bat for a pitcher and then sign a replacement bat.

I could see Rolen returning to his '06 numbers. I think that's reasonable.

Kennedy, I'm not so sure. Similarly, Ankiel's AAA production would've been relatively close to the RFers in those first 100 games (maybe a little better).

We shall see. Some really interesting names have been bandied about in recent weeks by Rick Hummell as potential acquisitions and targets. Renteria, we've known about, but there's also Curt Schilling and Dontrelle Willis. Schilling intrigues me (assuming he leaves Boston, which is no guarantee) but I hope they run like hell from Willis.

[Fat Strat]

Hmmm... I forgot Wellemeyer. I could definitley see us keeping him. He's only going to add about $1 mil though, so it's neglibible.

We loo pretty close, really. Most of the "options" money is Izzy, and I think we have to assume he'll be back. It IS an assumption, though, so that might be a place where we could clear some more salary.

I'll put it this way, if letting Izzy go will make the difference in signing a big time FA starter, then I would definitely do it. There's real problems with that, however, since there's never any guarantee that you'll be able to spend your money on the players that you want. Other teams can (and probably will) outbid you.

Other possibilities? Let Bennett walk and play Bryan Anderson. Along with So Taguchi, Wellemeyer, Maroth, and Miles (let all of them go), you could save as much as $5 million against payroll. That's a couple decent bullpeners, or a good chunk to throw at a FA starter.

[Simbagal23]

Uh-oh....who is Wainwright's agent and when is his big payday???

(Please tell me it's NOT Boras!)

[jim]

Thanks for posting haltz - just one question. Not sure how to read the buyout. For example, you have Mulder as $7M in '08 with a 1.5M buyout in '09. What is his salary in '09 if they don't buy him out?