PECOTA has Rays at 89 wins

[jim]

Going in a different direction here, PECOTA has been updated, and has the Rays winning 89 games in 2008.

greenback mentioned this in the brawl thread, I thought I would lift it and start another thread. It's pretty big news, a team just mired in low attendance and fan apathy following a steady plan, making good draft picks and building one of the best young teams I can remember in a long, long time.

[Hungary Jack]

That seems like a lot, even for them. It's a huge jump, and they play in a tough division. I'll take the under.

[Popeye_Card]

So they're going to increase by 23 wins mostly based on some minor league equivalents?

I'll believe it when I see it.

[jim]

So they're going to increase by 23 wins mostly based on some minor league equivalents?

I'll believe it when I see it.

Good point, but they really underperformed their third order wins last year. They had 75 W3 wins last year.

[heyzeus]

If they sign Bonds, they'll be the most interesting team in baseball.

[Popeye_Card]

So they're going to increase by 23 wins mostly based on some minor league equivalents?

I'll believe it when I see it.

Good point, but they really underperformed their third order wins last year. They had 75 W3 wins last year.

On the field, they had 66.

When it comes to a bunch of young guys with potential playing together, I'll go with what I see on the field until they prove otherwise. The psychology of "knowing how to win" and all that. It's overblown of course, but I still think it's a factor.

[jagtrader]

Maybe they gave all the Rays' pitchers Anthony Reyes' 2007 projections. That would do it.

[mikechamp]

So they're going to increase by 23 wins mostly based on some minor league equivalents?

I'll believe it when I see it.

++

Does PECOTA factor in the chances of Kazmir's arm exploding?

[Magneto2.0]

So they're going to increase by 23 wins mostly based on some minor league equivalents?

I'll believe it when I see it.

Good point, but they really underperformed their third order wins last year. They had 75 W3 wins last year.

On the field, they had 66.

When it comes to a bunch of young guys with potential playing together, I'll go with what I see on the field until they prove otherwise.

[Asmodai]

So they're going to increase by 23 wins mostly based on some minor league equivalents?

I'll believe it when I see it.

Good point, but they really underperformed their third order wins last year. They had 75 W3 wins last year.

On the field, they had 66.

When it comes to a bunch of young guys with potential playing together, I'll go with what I see on the field until they prove otherwise. The psychology of "knowing how to win" and all that. It's overblown of course, but I still think it's a factor.

its not a factor. why don't you back it up by doing a little research yourself?

it isn't hard. I'll tell you how to do it. Just look at say the majors since 1990. Find a weighted average of the players age (using PT percentage). Then find the difference between wins and pwins for the team. Look for some sort of correlation (linear or not). If you don't find a significant one (and you won't) then you are wrong. Even if you do find one you'd have to a bit more analysis...but we won't arrive at that pass. I would actually tend to believe that, if anything, younger teams would generally outperform their pwins. Younger teams generally run more and in high leverage situations the SB% breakeven point drops. This is logically consistent with the idea that clutch is relatively ignorable.

im not saying you're wrong. im saying you're probably wrong.