PECOTA has Rays at 89 wins

[UK]

They have the talent to be an 85 win team this year, '09, they could push to around 90 wins. So far this Spring, I like what I see. Garza has been impressive and hopefully Sonnanstine and Niemann round out the btm of the rotation.

[TheoSqua]

I always thought one factor as to why they sucked was because they play NYY and BOS 16 to 18 times (each) every season, and are being outspent by each of those teams to the tune of 4 to 5 times (or more).

that wouldnt factor into their PWins, since PWins is based off of actual runs scored and runs allowed. to factor out scheduling quirks we need to look at P3-wins.

PWins - Based off Runs Scored, Runs Allowed
P2Wins - Based off EqR scored, EqR allowed
P3Wins - Based off EqR scored, EqR allowed adjusted for schedule

Now that i read it, the 75 wins was P3 Wins. Their PWins was 66, and they won 66, so there's NO them sucking relative to their expected total. We expected them to win 66 wins based off their actual runs scored/allowed. The question then becomes if there were "psycholigical" effects that caused them to score 40 fewer than they should have and allowed 15 more than they should have (which equates to 71 wins so theyre -5). The runs allowed difference is well within one STDEV of the differences, so that's just random luck. The 40 run scored difference is a little different..

Wouldn't actual runs scored and runs allowed be influenced by the quality of their opponent. I'm sure the average pitching staff is going to give up far more runs playing the Yankees/Red Sox 32 times than they would playing the Pirates/Cardinals. Same for the other way around. They're going to score a lot more runs pitching against more mediocre staffs compared to teams like Boston.

[Asmodai]

I can already tell you they won't reach their P3 wins. That's not because of any psychological effects but because they play a relatively difficult schedule. Now let's look at a different logical fallacy in your conclusion.

You are (you have to) accepting that there is some psychological effect on the Devil Rays that causes them to score less runs than they should. You are (you have to) accepting that there was no psychological effect on the Devil Rays that causes them to allow less or more runs than they should. The two assumptions I made are the ONLY way you can arrive at your argument that their 66 wins underachieved their expected W2 total (non schedule adjusted) of 71 wins.

Now let's look at why PECOTA is projecting them to win close to 90 wins this season. They have the Tampa Bay Rays scoring 785 runs this season. They scored 782 runs last season. In other words, PECOTA's view on the Rays is NOT dependent on the Rays offense improving. So there's no way your reason can affect them. It's simply a logical fallacy. PECOTA isn't using the 822 total. They're saying oh they'll score as much as they did last season, which really is a VERY justifiable outcome. The offense is essentially the same - minus a sub league average CO in Delmon Young replaced by someone the same in Cliff Floyd. Whether or not Pena is legit is another question entirely. Hitting 40+ HRs (Even unexpectedly) is rarely a fluke.

The real reason PECOTA sees 88.5 wins or so? They have the Rays allowing 714 runs, a drop off of 130 runs allowed, about 115 of expected runs. You've already had to accept that this psychological crap has no impact on their pitching staff, so there's no cop out here. You have to either say I don't agree with the Rays pitchers/defense improving by 100 runs or not. Psychological effects are not to be considered.

So, in time, build a case against their pitching staff improving by 100 runs. If you can't, you're wrong. If you can, then you may be correct.

Once again, I'm not saying PECOTA is right and you are wrong. I'm saying the only way you're right is if you can prove that the 100 run allowed drop-off is wrong. Logically speaking, you can't use the same effect from last season. They are COMPLETELY independent.

Personally I have them at 83 wins.

[Asmodai]

I always thought one factor as to why they sucked was because they play NYY and BOS 16 to 18 times (each) every season, and are being outspent by each of those teams to the tune of 4 to 5 times (or more).

that wouldnt factor into their PWins, since PWins is based off of actual runs scored and runs allowed. to factor out scheduling quirks we need to look at P3-wins.

PWins - Based off Runs Scored, Runs Allowed
P2Wins - Based off EqR scored, EqR allowed
P3Wins - Based off EqR scored, EqR allowed adjusted for schedule

Now that i read it, the 75 wins was P3 Wins. Their PWins was 66, and they won 66, so there's NO them sucking relative to their expected total. We expected them to win 66 wins based off their actual runs scored/allowed. The question then becomes if there were "psycholigical" effects that caused them to score 40 fewer than they should have and allowed 15 more than they should have (which equates to 71 wins so theyre -5). The runs allowed difference is well within one STDEV of the differences, so that's just random luck. The 40 run scored difference is a little different..

Wouldn't actual runs scored and runs allowed be influenced by the quality of their opponent. I'm sure the average pitching staff is going to give up far more runs playing the Yankees/Red Sox 32 times than they would playing the Pirates/Cardinals. Same for the other way around. They're going to score a lot more runs pitching against more mediocre staffs compared to teams like Boston.

P1 and P2 are schedule influenced. P3 factors out schedule.

[Popeye_Card]

The real reason PECOTA sees 88.5 wins or so? They have the Rays allowing 714 runs, a drop off of 130 runs allowed, about 115 of expected runs. You've already had to accept that this psychological crap has no impact on their pitching staff, so there's no cop out here. You have to either say I don't agree with the Rays pitchers/defense improving by 100 runs or not. Psychological effects are not to be considered.

So, in time, build a case against their pitching staff improving by 100 runs. If you can't, you're wrong. If you can, then you may be correct.

Once again, I'm not saying PECOTA is right and you are wrong. I'm saying the only way you're right is if you can prove that the 100 run allowed drop-off is wrong. Logically speaking, you can't use the same effect from last season. They are COMPLETELY independent.

Personally I have them at 83 wins.

I haven't seen the PECOTA data, but the Rays allowed 944 runs last year. So to drop to 714, that would be a drop of 230 runs.

Do I really have to prove that they haven't improved their pitching staff by that much? Even the Cardinals from '03 to '04 only improved their RA numbers by a little over 130 runs.

[AJ]

With the Rays projected to be so good, will this finally be the yeah the AL Wild Card comes from another division?

I'm not saying the Rays will finish 1st or 2nd in the division, but maybe them and the Jays can beat the Yanks and Red Sox enough to keep one of them out of the playoffs.

I'm officially taking the Rays as my "token" AL team this year.

[UK]

It'll be interesting to see how TB does on offense compared to last year, any improvements as far as Longoria at 3B over Iwamura, Bartlett should cancel out what they had at SS last year (despite Harris doing well, Wilson and espec. Zobrist did not), Upton with 150 games in CF improves that spot while Iwamura doesn't match the offense from 2B last year.

The keys will be if Navarro cont's to hit after the horrible 1st half and strong 2nd half and if Pena regresses.

They've definitely addressed pitching and defense compared to last year.

[Asmodai]

The real reason PECOTA sees 88.5 wins or so? They have the Rays allowing 714 runs, a drop off of 130 runs allowed, about 115 of expected runs. You've already had to accept that this psychological crap has no impact on their pitching staff, so there's no cop out here. You have to either say I don't agree with the Rays pitchers/defense improving by 100 runs or not. Psychological effects are not to be considered.

So, in time, build a case against their pitching staff improving by 100 runs. If you can't, you're wrong. If you can, then you may be correct.

Once again, I'm not saying PECOTA is right and you are wrong. I'm saying the only way you're right is if you can prove that the 100 run allowed drop-off is wrong. Logically speaking, you can't use the same effect from last season. They are COMPLETELY independent.

Personally I have them at 83 wins.

I haven't seen the PECOTA data, but the Rays allowed 944 runs last year. So to drop to 714, that would be a drop of 230 runs.

Do I really have to prove that they haven't improved their pitching staff by that much? Even the Cardinals from '03 to '04 only improved their RA numbers by a little over 130 runs.

eh youre right, i dunno why i was thinking 830 instead of 930. the 200 runs may be defendable. their bullpen was historically bad 6.15 ERA or something. The first team in history with a bullpen ERA over 6.00, I believe. If they improve to 5.00 (their bullpen ERA the three previous years was 4.98, 3.90, and 4.08) - which is completely possible if not likely. It's likely that they're quite a bit below the five figure. That alone is a drop of 60 runs. Kazmir and Shields ought to wind up with a combined ERA around 3.80 for 400 innings or so - about what they did last season.

Every other pitcher who started a game for the Rays had an ERA over 5.75.

31 GS 5.76 ERA - Edwin Jackson
22 GS 5.85 ERA - Andy Sonnanstine
14 GS 6.14 ERA - Jason Hamell
10 GS 7.59 ERA - JP Howell
10 GS 7.70 ERA - Casey Fossum
10 GS 8.13 ERA - Jae Weong Seo

Yikes. That is a 6.46 ERA in 511 innings! Matt Garza ought to replace about 180 of those innings with an ERA around 4.50. That's a safe estimate. That's another 40 runs alone. We're already at 100 runs and we still have an ERA of 6.46 coming from the last two spots in the rotation - and we haven't addressed an improved defense. If you subscribe to MGL's camp that true RP level for pitchers is actually around five flat, you're looking at the rest of the improvement of 55 runs. So we're at like 150 runs give or take. So we're down to 765. It's not hard to imagine further improvements getting them down to around 725 or so.

Personally I project them at about 775 RS and 750 RA - which is 83 wins. Also one thing to note is that PECOTA is also simply projecting about 25 innings pitched total (all coming from the pen). That's almost 20 runs alone!

[Popeye_Card]

Just with better performance from guys they had, they should be back down to the mid-800's.

And if everything goes right with the replacements, they might be able to lower to the mid-700's.

But I think there's a legitimate chance something equally goes wrong (Kazmir gets injured, etc.), and they're right back there in the low to mid 800's.

I will be very, very surprised if the Rays allow less than 800 runs this season. I'd be much less surprised if they scored more than 800.

[cardsfansince82]

P.S. Will Vegas take my wager against PECOTA?

Vegas always favors traditional powers on their over/unders.

They have the Rays at 73 wins...they have the Cardinals at 80 wins.

*heads to casino*