Colby Rasmus

[Hipster Doofus]

Tony's supposed dislike of young players has been refuted about a thousand times.

Refuted by whom? In my opinion, most of the time, he simply would rather give a over-the hill veteran playing time over a young, up-and-coming guy. I've seen it many times.

[Socnorb11]

Asmodai, it seems to me that you've got a bit of an obsession with convincing yourself that Rasmus won't haunt your beloved Cubbies for years to come.

[The Third Man]

You mean like when he...

-Put Albert Pujols in the starting lineup at age 21
-Put a less-than-impressive Yadier Molina in the starting lineup at age 22
-Put Rick Ankiel in the starting rotation at age 20 and had him start game 1 of the NLDS
-Put Matt Morris in the starting rotation at age 20
-Usurped Cardinal legend Ozzie Smith for the inferior 26-year-old Royce Clayton
-Moved Ray Lankford to LF so 23-year-old J.D. Drew could play center
-Let unproven Adam Wainwright close through the playoffs at age 24

I'm sure others can add more, but the idea that Tony shows preferential treatments to veterans is shaky to say the least.

[Asmodai]

So, uh, Rasmus could be Grady Sizemore or he could be Corey Patterson?

Didn't we know this like two and a half years ago?

Pretty much. Though he has more power then Grady Sizemore

That isn't really true. Both guys look like mid 20 hr guys topping out around 30 and sizemore is a 40-50 double guy.

[Asmodai]

Asmodai, it seems to me that you've got a bit of an obsession with convincing yourself that Rasmus won't haunt your beloved Cubbies for years to come.

where did i say anything about him not being good?

[jim]

Tony's supposed dislike of young players has been refuted about a thousand times.

Refuted by whom? In my opinion, most of the time, he simply would rather give a over-the hill veteran playing time over a young, up-and-coming guy. I've seen it many times.

I think TLR deserves alot of criticism, he's by far from perfect. But this one label he has, imo, is wrong. I think TLR is generally more open to young players than his counterparts.

Did anyone realize that TLR has managed the following ROY's:

1983-Kittle (CWS)
1985-Guillen(CWS)
1986-Canseco(Oak)
1987-McGwire(Oak)
1988-Weiss(Oak)
2001-Pujols(STL)

That's alot.

[dangerous]

After the Cubs were swept in the NLDS last season did Cub fans blame it on bad luck or inferior personnel?

[ghostrunner]

Appreciated, Asmodai.

BTW, I know there's a variety of sources you could use, but where did you go to gather all the minor league data? I find I'm usually limited on the number of years when I look this stuff up.

[Fat Strat]

Something to consider with Rasmus... He suffered from a pretty bad infection (I think it was a sinus infection) at some point last summer. That was when his averages started to dip and he lost some power for about a month. I think it was in July, but I don't have his splits handy to show you.

I'm not saying that dramatically affected his EqA or anything, except to say that most people in the organization seem to think that the infection hurt his counting stats and BA (and thus obp and slug). That's why, they explain, he hit .270-.280 instead of .290-.300.

Edit: Here are the splits for June and July...

Code: Select all

June   .194   .308   .388   .697 
July   .215   .351   .342   .692 

He only played in 12 games in July. If I remember right, the infection started in June, he missed most of early July, and then they brought him back a little too early.

** end Edit **

I guess you could infer from that statement that I think Rasmus' EqA could have ended up a little higher than it was last year, and that would affect (to some extent) your lists.

Of course, lots of players on your lists had thier own set of unique circumstances, so it's not worth changing anything. It is worth noting.

** Edit 2 **

Just so it doesn't look like I'm cherry picking stats, here are his entire splits.

Code: Select all

April    .256   .322   .476   .798 
May      .340   .439   .699  1.138
June     .194   .308   .388   .697   
July     .215   .351   .342   .692
August   .365   .455   .779  1.233
Sept     .333   .600  1.167  1.767

Normally, I'm not big on reading into minor league splits. It's usually pointless. In this case, I think it tells us a little bit about Rasmus as a whole. How much did the infection hurt him? I think you can look at that and see that it hurt him quite a bit. Even if he had duplicated his worst healthy month, April. you would see a huge incease in his overall slug and obp.

Secondly, the claimed effect on his stats that the infection had makes a lot of sense. We've all tried to play sports with the flu and sickness and it takes a lot out of you. It's not hard at all to imaging his slug% dropping along with his BABIP. He just wasn't able to hit the ball with as much unction as when he was 100%. That usually leads to outs.


Again, this has little or no relevance to your discussion. But, I think some people will appreciate simply seeing his AA splits. Just take one look at that 1.233 OPS in August and 1.767 OPS in September and start dreaming.

Then remember that many of us have seen this guy play and can honestly say that watching him confirms what you see in the stats. He's amazingly talented.

[skmsw]

many of us have seen this guy play and can honestly say that watching him confirms what you see in the stats. He's amazingly talented.

I think the only point Meph is trying to make is that there have been loads and loads of guys who appear amazingly talented who go on to be ordinary garden variety players -- or who do not even make it all. It's an important point, and I'm not sure why he has received so much grief for making it. This board should be a lot better than disregarding sound analysis just because of the fan affiliation of the person doing the analysis (NOT to suggest that Fat is doing that). Betting against ANY strong prospect making it big -- even a prospect as strong as Rasmus -- will be the winning bet some two thirds of the time. And Meph's data show the cautions therein.