Colby Rasmus

[Socnorb11]

many of us have seen this guy play and can honestly say that watching him confirms what you see in the stats. He's amazingly talented.

I think the only point Meph is trying to make is that there have been loads and loads of guys who appear amazingly talented who go on to be ordinary garden variety players -- or who do not even make it all. It's an important point, and I'm not sure why he has received so much grief for making it. This board should be a lot better than disregarding sound analysis just because of the fan affiliation of the person doing the analysis (NOT to suggest that Fat is doing that). Betting against ANY strong prospect making it big -- even a prospect as strong as Rasmus -- will be the winning bet some two thirds of the time. And Meph's data show the cautions therein.

There's no room for biased enthusiasm on this board?

[dangerous]

When Boston won the World Series last seaon did Sox fans ascribe it good luck or superior personnel?

[skmsw]

There's no room for biased enthusiasm on this board?

There is. However, in my opinion, Asmodai has been, at times, treated disrespectfully because he doesn't share the biased enthusiasm. In my opinion that's not the same thing, and given my way there's no room for that.

When Boston won the World Series last seaon did Sox fans ascribe it good luck or superior personnel?

On this thread I've discussed neither luck nor Boston, so I'm not sure where you're headed with this. But to take the question at face value, lots of different fans ascribed lots of different meanings to it. There was a sizeable percentage of fans who misread the results (and a sizeable percentage who mistreated other fans). Is that what you aspire for this forum?

[Fat Strat]

This board should be a lot better than disregarding sound analysis just because of the fan affiliation of the person doing the analysis (NOT to suggest that Fat is doing that). Betting against ANY strong prospect making it big -- even a prospect as strong as Rasmus -- will be the winning bet some two thirds of the time. And Meph's data show the cautions therein.

I think this is a good point. If I was trying to make a point to enhance Meph's argument (and I really wasn't), it would only be to suggest that applying his infection to his stats might in some way conceivably narrow the list of comparables because it would potentially raise his already impressive EqA.

EVEN IF MEPH AGREED WITH THAT and bumped Rasmus up generically, it would NOT change the fact that there is still a percentage of prospects who just don't make it. Sometimes it's injury that takes them out. Sometimes it's major league curveballs. Sometimes it's physcological. Sometimes the skills just don't translate like we think they will. There's no such thing as a stone-cold-lock prospect.

I think there definitely is room for biased enthusiasm on this board. I'm admittedly biased and enthusiastic about our entire farm system, which I think provides a good complement to guys like Meph who are much more objective and sabermetrically inclined... and is also very familiar with the players. Still, I think it's more than fair for objective minds to remind us that our enthusiasm is just that... enthusiasm. A large percentage of prospects fail. It's hard to remember that in March.

[Asmodai]

i cant recall if i posted rasmus' career numbers here. Hoff is also nice. Everyone else is pretty forgettable offensively. Mark Hamilton has had a good run here and there. Bryan Anderson had a good showing in low A.

Appreciated, Asmodai.

BTW, I know there's a variety of sources you could use, but where did you go to gather all the minor league data? I find I'm usually limited on the number of years when I look this stuff up.

Baseball reference has complete minor league data (no splits) since 1992. The baseball cube has data back to the late 1970s in some leagues. I had to develop a simple method of creating park factors for the minors. I like what I came up with and it's probably as accurate as anything else - including ones based on H/A data like BTFs. I am currently working on adding all of the stuff for the AAA level since 98 or so. I have PFs for the American Association and Pacific Coast League done. It's a pain in the ass figuring out when minor league teams changed parks and whatnot. Not to mention at the AAA level I have to completely separate data between 1997 and 1998. PF data between teams before and after that for the PCL is relatively unrelated since the PCL at the time was 10 teams, almost all in the mountains or extreme NW and half of the American Association joined the PCL, all these teams were close to the Mississippi river basin.

[Jmodene]

i cant recall if i posted rasmus' career numbers here. Hoff is also nice. Everyone else is pretty forgettable offensively. Mark Hamilton has had a good run here and there. Bryan Anderson had a good showing in low A.

There's a big difference, though, between what Rasmus did in AA at age 20 and what Hoffpauir did in AA at age 23 (this would be their ages in their first year of AA ball)

Not even counting the stats - Hoffpauir hit .247/.344/.355 to Rasmus' .275/.381/.551 - just the age difference alone makes a huge difference in their potential.

It *is* nice that Hoffpauir made what appears to be a quantum leap in his *second* year of AA, and then carried it over after his promotion to AAA, but it remains to be seen if he can maintain that improved production.

(I should point out, too, that Anderson's .298/.350/.388 line in *his* first year of AA ball - also at age 20 - is almost as impressive as Colby's; Anderson's problem is not going to be whether he can hit but whether he can do well enough defensively behind the plate to be a major league regular.)

[Asmodai]

eh its nice Anderson was in Double A. He just wasn't any good offensively. It's not nearly as impressive as Rasmus'. Just look at the guys around him.

[greenback44]

eh its nice Anderson was in Double A. He just wasn't any good offensively. It's not nearly as impressive as Rasmus'. Just look at the guys around him.

Yeah, that was a step backwards for Anderson. The only defense for him is that even good-hitting catchers sometimes have crappy seasons, and that's not much of a defense, since it suggests he'll have some injury problems.

I like what you did here, but I hope you recognize nobody likes sabermetric prophets of doom. Considering your monikers, I'd expect you have some understanding of this.

[Jmodene]

I need to dig out my old Bill James books. He makes it very clear that a 20-year-old who hits .260 in AA ball is going to have a better major league career than a 25-year-old who hits .320 in AA.

For Anderson to hit .298 in AA at age 20 is impressive. For Colby to hit .275 with 29 HR and have a .932 OPS in AA at age 20 is phenomenal.

[Asmodai]

Let's face facts. Bryan Anderson had an isolated power of just 90 while playing half of his games in perhaps the best offensive park in the league, in the best offensive league at the level. Let's ignore 21 year olds and guys with in 10 pts of his performance:

Luke Allen
Eric Duncan
Melky Cabrera
Sergio Santos
Wilton Veras
Dioner Navarro
Joaquin Arias
Ryan Sweeney
Justin Huber
Jimmy Rollins
Edwin Encarnacion
Wily Mo Pena
Andrew McCutchen
Bryan Anderson
Luis Rivas
Jackie Rexrode
Jose Lopez
Michael Brantley
Jackson Melian
Angel Santos
Carl Crawford
Fernando Martinez
Luis Rivas
Carlos Urquiola

Not exactly a great list. There are a couple guys there that developed into ML starters and all stars, but not nearly as impressive as you make it seem. Further more lets not forget he hit just .273/.338/.349 away from Springfield.

It certainly was a rough season for him. The question is if he can hit enough. He looks like a best case scenario of like .270/.330/.370.