Colby Rasmus

[cpebbles]

Anderson wore down, plain and simple. He was at .315/.375/.426 before fading badly in July and August. His offensive game is well-regarded by scouts and he's had good numbers at every stop thus far. By far the biggest question with him is whether he can handle more than 80-90 games behind the plate each season.

[Fat Strat]

Anderson wore down, plain and simple. He was at .315/.375/.426 before fading badly in July and August. His offensive game is well-regarded by scouts and he's had good numbers at every stop thus far. By far the biggest question with him is whether he can handle more than 80-90 games behind the plate each season.

I was just about to make this same point. And, really, we're not expecting Anderson to be a great prospect. We're hoping that he provides enough offense to push Molina aside or provide an alternative down the road. We're not looking for a super star here.

[Jmodene]

But - given the choice between a catcher who can catch but isn't much of a hitter, or a catcher who can hit but isn't much of a catcher, I'll take the former every time.

[cpebbles]

Where exactly did you get this idea that Springfield is a hitter's haven? It's rated as a slight hitters' park by Szymborski and minorleaguesplits. I'm guessing Prospectus, and I seem to recall discussion on Primer that they are still clinging to one-year park effects.

[cpebbles]

Incidentally, Prospectus translates Anderson's struggles last year into a peak projection of .301/.356/.400. I think we'll take that.

[Asmodai]

1.23 hr factor in 07
1.29 hr factor in 06
1.05 hr factor in 05

The overall factors for them are 1.04 or so, iirc.

My method would have come up with this (im only using my method for seasons before 2003) the last three years
1.0293, 1.0170, 1.0251
Wichita and Midland were a little better offensively, but none are better for power hitters due to the high HR factor.

Using my method for HR factors for Springfield we get
1.1384,1.1018,1.1090

My method adjusts for schedule, the others one don't so mine are on average going to be closer to average across the board.

[greenback44]

Incidentally, Prospectus translates Anderson's struggles last year into a peak projection of .301/.356/.400. I think we'll take that.

Anderson's PECOTA page isn't as friendly. For some reason it's not subscriber-only (and the spacing is a PITA):

Code: Select all

Year 	             PA 	R 	2B 	3B 	HR 	RBI 	BB 	SO 	SB 	CS 	EqBRR 	AVG 	OBP 	SLG 	MLVr 	EqA 	VORP
2008 (age 21) 	491 	46 	24 	2 	8 	50 	34 	96 	4 	2 	-0.4 	.255 	.307 	.370 	-.165 	.236 	5.5
2009 (age 22) 	452 	43 	23 	1 	8 	46 	32 	83 	4 	2 	-0.4 	.262 	.316 	.384 	-.126 	.244 	6.9
2010 (age 23) 	446 	43 	23 	2 	9 	47 	33 	81 	3 	2 	-0.4 	.260 	.316 	.388 	-.122 	.245 	6.3
2011 (age 24) 	398 	38 	20 	2 	9 	43 	28 	70 	4 	2 	-0.4 	.268 	.321 	.402 	-.088 	.251 	8.4
2012 (age 25) 	394 	39 	20 	2 	9 	44 	31 	65 	3 	2 	-0.3 	.275 	.334 	.417 	-.040 	.261 	9.4
2013 (age 26) 	357 	34 	19 	2 	8 	41 	27 	59 	3 	2 	-0.3 	.275 	.330 	.420 	-.043 	.260 	8.0
2014 (age 27) 	434 	43 	22 	2 	10 	50 	30 	71 	3 	2 	-0.2 	.265 	.317 	.406 	-.092 	.251 	4.5

[Asmodai]

Incidentally, Prospectus translates Anderson's struggles last year into a peak projection of .301/.356/.400. I think we'll take that.

and anderson is the perfect example of a player pecota wont get right in near term (much less long term) projections

[cpebbles]

Bryan Anderson had an isolated power of just 90 while playing half of his games in perhaps the best offensive park in the league, in the best offensive league at the level.

The overall factors for them are 1.04 or so, iirc.

Wichita and Midland were a little better offensively, but none are better for power hitters due to the high HR factor.

So the neutral overall park factors are irrelevant, what really matters is the HR park factor for a player whose offensive game is not dependant on the HR by anyone's estimation?

So are these posts trolling, or are you really this confused about what you're saying?

[Michael]

Interesting work, Asmodai. I agree with others, while Rasmus is an excellent prospect we have to be realistic about his chances.