Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

[Arthur Dent]

Looks like I'm out of date on polling. Gallup is now including cell phone only in their samples. On national elections, it only made a difference of a point or two (in the margin of error).

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/gallup_ad ... ntervi.php

[Socnorb11]

Hilary could still be the difference-maker. If she'll REALLY get behind Obama (which she hasn't done yet, but I think she will), I think it will take some of the luster off of Palin. Palin can't hold a candle to Hilary when it comes to campaigning.

She's gotta get behind him first, though and the media actually has to cover it. Not just "hey hillary is campaignin in florida lol k bye"

I think she'll get there. It's all about timing. The last 2 weeks have been Palin's time. Anything that the Dems did (like firing up a Hilary campaign) would have been viewed as nothing more than a desperate move to take the attention from Palin. The election is still almost 2 months away. The momentum can't hold for that long, in my opinion.

[BW23]

It is about timing.

Other than his speech at the DNC, Obama's done nothing in months to really get any momentum. Sure, he beat Hillary, but it was close, and those people that supported Hillary haven't exactly switched over. Yet. They will, for the most part.

McCain, OTOH, has all the momentum. They're doing things to get all of the press. And now Obama's blaming the media (the ones that made him a star) for calling him out on his poor judgment with recent statements. Enough is enough? That's what I thought when he was the media darling.

Whoever creates news will get on the news. Good or bad.

The tide can change so quickly. I don't think the polls mean much of anything right now.

[Socnorb11]

It is about timing.

Other than his speech at the DNC, Obama's done nothing in months to really get any momentum. Sure, he beat Hillary, but it was close, and those people that supported Hillary haven't exactly switched over. Yet. They will, for the most part.

McCain, OTOH, has all the momentum. They're doing things to get all of the press. And now Obama's blaming the media (the ones that made him a star) for calling him out on his poor judgment with recent statements. Enough is enough? That's what I thought when he was the media darling.

Whoever creates news will get on the news. Good or bad.

The tide can change so quickly. I don't think the polls mean much of anything right now.

I think you're right. The Republican timing has been dead perfect for the last couple of weeks. The Palin thing was gold for them, and they deserve credit for that tactical genius. But you have to remember it was viewed as a risk/reward move. They've seen the reward (moreso than I think even they could have fathomed), but the risk is still there. You have to wonder how much more momentum they can squeeze out of the Palin thing. Maybe they've got more, but don't you think there's a pretty good chance that they've peaked?

As far as "doing things to get all of the press", I'm not sure what you mean, other than the Palin thing. What else have they done, or can they do? That goes for both sides, really. Obama still has the Hilary wild card that he can possibly play. I'm not sure what else there is.

[Freed Roger]

It is about timing.

Other than his speech at the DNC, Obama's done nothing in months to really get any momentum. Sure, he beat Hillary, but it was close, and those people that supported Hillary haven't exactly switched over. Yet. They will, for the most part.

McCain, OTOH, has all the momentum. They're doing things to get all of the press. And now Obama's blaming the media (the ones that made him a star) for calling him out on his poor judgment with recent statements. Enough is enough? That's what I thought when he was the media darling.

Whoever creates news will get on the news. Good or bad.

The tide can change so quickly. I don't think the polls mean much of anything right now.

When/if the focus ever changes from the circus to the issues - Obama will win, mainly because McCain and the GOP are too closely associated with the colossal failures of the Bush admin. Thus, as long as the focus is on pigs and lipsticks and the VP's family and outrage that they are picked upon, etc etc the better McCain's chances.

[BW23]

In terms of getting news, I'm mainly talking about Palin. They timed that as perfectly as possible taking away any news post-DNC. Then they had their own convention, and they got more air time than thought just because of Palin. Now the Dems are getting some bad press because of comments made with inferences about Palin.

While McCain/Palin haven't done much in the last couple of days, good or bad, the Dems have...and it's been bad for a bit of it. And now Obama is upset that he's getting bad press.

I've thought all along that the Palin bounce would be short-lived, but I don't think Obama has a bounce in him. That ship sailed. It's back to even, and it's up to what they all say from here on out...barring something unforeseeable coming up (most likely on Palin). Any skeletons on the others likely would be out by now.

I don't think anyone will be viewed as a savior now by those who haven't made up their mind yet, so each party just has to concentrate on the right areas.

The Obama camp has more work to do than what some may believe, IMO. If I'm a supporter, they better change strategy soon or pray Hillary saves them. They're not moving in the right direction.

[cardinalkarp]

Obama still has the Hilary wild card that he can possibly play.

Is Hilary really considered an asset?

[BW23]

Obama still has the Hilary wild card that he can possibly play.

Is Hilary really considered an asset?

Only for those that supported her and now may have jumped to the Palin bandwagon. She's too polarizing otherwise...maybe much the same as Palin will be.

[JL21]

Maybe I'm crazy but I think the real wild card is African-American voters who, to steal a line from Yogi Berra, "have stayed away in droves" from the voting booth for a long time. I'm curious to see:

1. how much having a black candidate changes that

2. if that potential change is enough to steal a state or two or three

The black vote in America is a sleeping giant, IMO.

[Cardinalis_cardinalis]

In terms of getting news, I'm mainly talking about Palin. They timed that as perfectly as possible taking away any news post-DNC. Then they had their own convention, and they got more air time than thought just because of Palin. Now the Dems are getting some bad press because of comments made with inferences about Palin.

While McCain/Palin haven't done much in the last couple of days, good or bad, the Dems have...and it's been bad for a bit of it. And now Obama is upset that he's getting bad press.

I've thought all along that the Palin bounce would be short-lived, but I don't think Obama has a bounce in him. That ship sailed. It's back to even, and it's up to what they all say from here on out...barring something unforeseeable coming up (most likely on Palin). Any skeletons on the others likely would be out by now.

I don't think anyone will be viewed as a savior now by those who haven't made up their mind yet, so each party just has to concentrate on the right areas.

The Obama camp has more work to do than what some may believe, IMO. If I'm a supporter, they better change strategy soon or pray Hillary saves them. They're not moving in the right direction.

Very well spoken. I'm an Obama-supporter, BTW, but completely agree that they have their work cut out for them. As disgusting as I find the GOP's tactics, I have to admit that they're politically effective.