Out on a limb with Chris Duncan

[Dillagii]

I would love to see what Duncan's Slug % was before Cincy series? Anyone has it?

.528

Thank you, Sir

[sighyoung]

Can the two opposing sides please form street gangs?

Then we will strap Steve and RC together at one hand and have them engage in a knife fight. At which point Micheal Jackson will appear and peace and harmony will be found through the art of breakdancing.

After all, wasn't that what they were fighting about in the Beat It video? Chris Duncan's slugging percentage?

BEAT IT!

When you're a Jet, you're a Jet all the way
From you're first cigarette to your last dying day,
When you're a Jet!!!!

[WentCrazy]

I'm betting against the magical steverino.

Translate his career minor league numbers however you want. Apply whatever fluke constat you want to his current ML numbers.

He'll face a lot of mediocre pitching down the stretch, particularly when you consider the late season call-ups. I say he drops off quite a bit from his current pace, but slugs .463 down the stretch.

[Michael]

440 is about a push for me but I'll take the under because his swing looks like it has a lot of holes in it.

[Radbird]

Just sitting here drinking the Chris Duncan kool-aid. 8)

[Bo Hart]

I'm going to bet against you Steve, and here's why: I don't see Chris Duncan as being the type of guy who slugs .600. Then again, who does? I do see him as being someone who slugs somewhere in the range of .450-480 or so, though. I think for the rest of the year, his numbers will revert to what I'm expect from him (maybe like a .270 / .340 / .450-480).

It's kind of like Chris Shelton. Shelton on the season is slugging .477 with an .820 OPS. Probably not up to par with the average first baseman, but not bad, right? Well, take a look at his splits:
April: 1.186 SLG
May: .363 SLG
June: .364 SLG
July: .386 SLG

An example of one month having some severe skewing on his numbers.

I'm not suggesting that Duncan will pull a Chris Shelton and drop to below-average performance, but I do think that he'll play more along the liens of that predicted line I gave earlier, but that his season stats willl still be pretty significantly skewed by this hot stretch he's in right now.

[doe_boy]

420

This guy swings like Pedro Cerrano against lefties

He no pray to Jobu? No way!

Pedro Cerrano: Bats, they are sick. I cannot hit curveball. Straightball I hit it very much. Curveball, bats are afraid. I ask Jobu to come, take fear from bats. I offer him cigar, rum. He will come.

Eddie Harris: You know you might think about taking Jesus Christ as your savior instead of fooling around with all this stuff.

Pedro Cerrano: Jesus, I like him very much, but he no help with curveball.

Eddie Harris: You trying to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?


Eddie Harris: Up your butt, Jobu.

[boyer14]

For games beginning with tonight's (8/9/06) and running through the last game of the regular season, if Duncan gets at least 75 more AB he will slug .440 or lower.

Who wants a piece of me???

Gee, I don't know...I'm not much of a numbers guy. Is .440 good?

boyer14

[planet planet]

But therein lies the rub. He's starting to count today, not season end numbers. I'm sure he's betting he's already missed Duncan's peak. I'll still take the over and bet against Steverino.

[Bo Hart]

Gee, I don't know...I'm not much of a numbers guy. Is .440 good?

boyer14

Assuming you're not being sarcastic..

John Rodriguez has slugged about .440 since being a Cardinal.

307 ABs, 7 HR, 17 2B, 3 3B (with a .300 AVG)