So, what changes do we need to make for next year?

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Richie Allen
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Re: So, what changes do we need to make for next year?

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Swingingbunt wrote:
Richie Allen wrote:The only problem with the argument that this year it's accentuated is that it's not. Go to Baseball Reference and do a quick glance at the Cardinals numbers every year. There isn't a year I found, looking at the past 6 or 7 years, that there weren't at least 7 or 8 guys with more than 100 PA and almost always a couple with 300 to 400. Tony admits he does this. It's part of his strategy to keep the bench fresh. I'm saying it might not be the best strategy if the bench is awful, which it pretty much was this year.
That begs the question, then...should Tony change his style for the team Mo gives him, or does Mo need make upgrading the bench a priority? My feeling is that Tony needs to change his style a bit. If we re-sign Holliday and extend Pujols, there won't be a whole lot of extra money for an experienced bench.
That's kind of where I am right now. Those on here defending the amount he used his bench simply need to either remember past years or look it up. Even the 100+ win 2004 and 2005 teams had an inordinate amount of bench play. John Mabry 275 & 274 PA, So Taguchi 424 & 206 PA, Marlon Anderson 271, Roger Cedeno 223, Hector Luna 192 & 153, John Rodriguez 176, Einar Diaz 130, Scott Seabol 105, etc. Don't really understand arguing that Tony doesn't do this. He admits that he does and I'm pretty sure he wouldn't do it if he didn't think it was for the overall good of the team. In years that he has a decent bench or such a good team, like in 04 & 05, it probably doesn't much matter. In years where the bench is horrible or we're in a tight pennant race, I think he needs to give the bench guy theory more of a rest and run our best lineup out there a lot more often. The other teams I've looked at that play their bench guys a lot typically got strong performances from those players (in the neighborhood of 100 OPS+). But not necessarily our guys. Not uncommon to see a few hundred PA from a guy with an OPS+ in the 60s or 70s.

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Eephus Speed
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Re: So, what changes do we need to make for next year?

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I don't dispute that TLR uses bench players more than most, but I'm wondering if the difference is really all that great during a more typical season. On average, how many players on a team get 500+ PA, how many get 400-499, 300-399, and so on? And by what amount does the average Cardinals team differ?

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Richie Allen
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Re: So, what changes do we need to make for next year?

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withAloe wrote:I don't dispute that TLR uses bench players more than most, but I'm wondering if the difference is really all that great during a more typical season. On average, how many players on a team get 500+ PA, how many get 400-499, 300-399, and so on? And by what amount does the average Cardinals team differ?
Obviously a pretty broad topic there to cover. All I can say from the little research that I've done the past couple days is that the Cardinals seem to readily give many more ABs to 60-80 OPS+ bench guys than most other successful NL teams (and the Cubs).

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Jmodene
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Re: So, what changes do we need to make for next year?

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Then again, Herzog had guys on his bench with 25 or 30 AB's all season, and then when he needed them in the postseason, they couldn't do the job because they'd been sitting on the bench all season.

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Swingingbunt
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Re: So, what changes do we need to make for next year?

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Jmodene wrote:Then again, Herzog had guys on his bench with 25 or 30 AB's all season, and then when he needed them in the postseason, they couldn't do the job because they'd been sitting on the bench all season.
You are absolutely right. But there's a pretty wide river between 25 AB's and 250 AB's.
I have no problem playing reserves. Lugo should get one or two starts a week easily. LaRue could catch once a week. If there is a five man bench, the other three could see one start a week too. Even in doing that you are gonna get most of the guys on your bench 100 - 200 AB's over the course of a season, right? It's not like we're running an aging team out there every day.

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JCShutout
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Re: So, what changes do we need to make for next year?

Post by JCShutout »

Resigning Holliday is a must.

I like PIR's ideas. At first I was pretty meh on Figgins lack of power, but unless Glaus has a major turnaround (which I doubt), we're not going to find a .500+ slg% 3b, and I would not mind the nice OBP. Is Figgins' defense good? That would make a big difference for me. I would be fine with resigning DeRo and having him and Freese split 3b as well.

I also liked PIR's Bedard idea. Presuming Pinero is gone, I say go after Smoltz, Bedard, and let Garcia be the first callup when someone gets injured/sucks.

And I know its costly, but toss a few million at good bench and bullpen guys. Then again, if DeRo is signed and Freese is a solid 3bman, then we'll always have at least one solid player on the bench as one of DeRo, Freese, Shoe, or Luddy will always sit.

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Eephus Speed
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Re: So, what changes do we need to make for next year?

Post by Eephus Speed »

Figgins has a career OPS+ of 98, a career wOBA of .339, a career UZR/150 of 6.5 as a third baseman (by far his best position). He turns 32 on my parents' anniversary. A career SB% just under 75. He's averaged 2.9 WAR/season over the last 6 seasons ('04-'09).

I'd rather we roll the dice with Freese or re-sign DeRosa for 1-2 years than throw big money/years at Figgins.

My understanding is that Bedard's future looks bleak, but perhaps I'm misremembering or was misinformed.

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Re: So, what changes do we need to make for next year?

Post by Hungary Jack »

Between Lugo, Freese, Mather and Craig, I think we have the makings of a decent bench at the league minimum (IIRC, all of Lugo's 2010 salary is paid by the BoSox).

Signing DeRosa to start at 3B in essence deepens the bench because of his ability to play 2B and LF.

We'll almost certainly have to go outside the system to find a 4th OF who can spell Rasmus in CF and who can hit lefties passably. Coco Crisp might be a possibility. Randy Winn could be another. Baldelli and Byrd might be others.

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Eephus Speed
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Re: So, what changes do we need to make for next year?

Post by Eephus Speed »

I still like the idea of signing Cameron (for no more than 2 years) and trading Ludwick, if Cameron will accept a cut in pay.

Baldelli would be fine if he actually becomes available. Between left-right splits and UZR, I'm not too interested in Byrd, Winn or Crisp.

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Re: So, what changes do we need to make for next year?

Post by jagtrader »

Jmodene wrote:Then again, Herzog had guys on his bench with 25 or 30 AB's all season, and then when he needed them in the postseason, they couldn't do the job because they'd been sitting on the bench all season.
Image

He did the job once, and only once.

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