Out on a limb with Chris Duncan

[JL21]

Duncan is the new Matt Murton.

I actually thought the same thing, but I like Murton's tools more. But from a production standpoint, they're eerily similar.

[stewie13]

Duncan is the new Matt Murton.

I actually thought the same thing, but I like Murton's tools more. But from a production standpoint, they're eerily similar.

Comparing Duncan to Marton or Shelton is not the bad thing that some people make it out to be.

Murton had an OPS just over .900 in AA last year at age 23 and has an OPS close to .800 this year in the majors.

Sure, Shelton got off to a great start and then tailed off but his OPS for the year is still .820 after being .870 last year.

[JL21]

Being compared to anyone with an OPS of .900 or more is never a bad thing.

[docellis]

he looks mad about this thread.

[thrill]

Speaking of Murton, how come I get angry every time I turn on a Cubs game and he and Theriot/Cedenoaren't playing? I shouldn't care, but Dusty is just making a mockery of baseball.

[MaskedMan]

The third at bat 2 nite against Cincy is the perfect way to show how Dunc has grown into a pretty good hitter that makes adjustments at the plate. He walks first then gets a base hit off the 1b man and then gets 2 strikes on "his percieved weakness" on scouting reports and then works it back in his favor at 3-2 and knows they are going to try and go back on the outside corner and goes with the pitch for a double in the gap...soo many holes in that swing

[HugeCardfan]

So five games into the PREDICTION Duncan is slugging .8125 according to my calculations. That works out to an OPS of 1.500, again according to my calculations. My my....

Assuming only 75 at bats (Steve's minimum), Duncan is going to have to slug a meager .338 to bring it down to .440. I think he'd have to turn into Miles to do that.....

[skmsw]

Funny thing is . . . I hope Duncan keeps up every second of it. How great would it be if our LF problem, our #2- or #5-slot problem, and our secondary power problem were all solved, without giving up any players in trade and without spending more than half a million bucks (and maybe less than $400k)?? Spectacular!!

But just like I said when many folks who watched AP on his hot streak earlier this year, upped their predictions from 45 HR to 55, 60, and more, I'll say it again now:

Changing your assessment of a player while he is hot or cold almost always results in a less accurate assessment of the player. I may be completely wrong about Duncan, and it won't be the first time. It's also not the first time I'm rooting against myself. But I'm not ready to concede anything yet, and the minute he goes 1 for 15 and 3 for 30, people will be flocking to my side -- and will be equally wrong for doing so.

I'm gonna ride this one out, and continuously hope I lose.

(also posted on the 8/16 post game thread)

[HugeCardfan]

I understand Steve. It's almost a win win. If he does trip on his Johnson and crawl into the finish line you get to be right. If, on the other hand, he continues to knock the cover off the ball, we all win.... But in the latter case, we not only get to see his promising first season, but also get a "piece of you"....

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Speaking of Murton, how come I get angry every time I turn on a Cubs game and he and Theriot/Cedenoaren't playing? I shouldn't care, but Dusty is just making a mockery of baseball.

It's a good thing I'm not really high on any of those guys or I might have an aneurysm. All I'm going to say is that things will be broken if the Cubs don't just stick Pie in the 7 hole and leave him there for the entirety of a season.

PS- The Murton comparison is a cautionary tale. Beware sample sizes that belie everything the player has done in the past.