Update: HOLLIDAY A CARD 7yr/120 million, p178

[clevername]

5 years isn't really a short term.

While we can have discussions on how much he's actually worth based on past performance/payouts, in this market we shouldn't have to pay that much. At the beginning of the offseason, back in November, I would have liked this deal. Now, not so much. Especially if that 2-3 million extra per year is put towards Albert's sure to be high number.

[Hungary Jack]

I would rather they overpay and have a lesser commitment in terms of length.

Same here. I'm not even sure 20m is overpaying. According to fangraphs he was worth 25.6m last year.

It's really not overpaying. When we started this offseason I think most of us (who had followed this kind of thing) assumed he would get around $20 million. I thought we would be exceptionally lucky to get him at $18 million per with $2 mil a year deferred... In other words $20 million total per year.

+

Getting Holliday on a 5-year deal at <$20M per, vs. 6-8 years, is pretty darned good, IMO. Given that he has been worth $87M in performance over the past 3 years, coupled with a reasonable assumption that salaries will continue to increase over the long run, make this an attractive deal. If he defers some compensation at low interest, so much the better.

Git er done.

[Eephus Speed]

If both NY teams, both LA teams, both CHI teams and BOS are all out of the running, I don't see why we would need to go as high as $20M/yr.

[Michael]

If both NY teams, both LA teams, both CHI teams and BOS are all out of the running, I don't see why we would need to go as high as $20M/yr.

On the other hand, how cute do the Cards want to get? We can't be 100% sure another team won't beat 86/6.

[clevername]

I can't imagine they're offering 6 years $86 million at this point.

I think they've probably settled into that $17-18/year area and are haggling over the length/opt outs. They probably still have the most valuable offer on the table by a significant amount.

[Michael]

I can't imagine they're offering 6 years $86 million at this point.

I think they've probably settled into that $17-18/year area and are haggling over the length/opt outs. They probably still have the most valuable offer on the table by a significant amount.

I used 86/6 from the previous twitter. Posters are complaining 85/5 is too high.

I'm curious, what is the max you'd offer Holliday? There's always risk another team can sign him.

[TimeForGuinness]

yeah, and from this thread we see several GRBers, myself included, didn't blink at offering Holliday 19-20m a season over 6-7 years. The fact that offers are around 16-17-18m for lesser years shows how much a deal he could potentially become/

Ha. I forgot about that thread.

I originally wanted him at 5/90...but in that thread I gave him 6/114 as my final offer. It might end up being closer to my final offer than the bargain I had originally sought.

...18 million AAV, 19 million AAV...not my money.

[TheoSqua]

I think you have to make a respectful offer too. The Cards know Hollidays market value and if they attempt to go too far under it they could either lose Holliday completely, or he could get disgruntled.

I wouldn't be surprised if Holliday came into this offseason with expectations of getting a deal around 8/168. So he's probably already severely disappointed in how the market has transpired. I would hope the Cardinals are wise enough to see a good deal when it's available and jump on it without trying to do too much. If the Cards can sign Holliday for 7/120, they've gotten a great deal.

[Eephus Speed]

I would think 6/102 (with a NTC and opt-out after year 3 or 4) would do the trick, but that's just speculation. Not even informed speculation.

Posters are complaining 85/5 is too high.

I was (mildly) complaining about 5/98.5. I haven't seen 5/85 mentioned anywhere.

[clevername]

I can't imagine they're offering 6 years $86 million at this point.

I think they've probably settled into that $17-18/year area and are haggling over the length/opt outs. They probably still have the most valuable offer on the table by a significant amount.

I used 86/6 from the previous twitter. Posters are complaining 85/5 is too high.

I'm curious, what is the max you'd offer Holliday? There's always risk another team can sign him.

right now based on what we've heard I wouldn't go over $18 million a year. We'd always have a chance to exceed any surprise team. It's not like Boras is going to get a surprise swoop offer and just accept it on the spot. He's going to go back to any other teams in on the discussions and give them a chance to give him even more.

If some team bids more than we're willing to absolutely give, then he's gone anyway. If another team swooped in, I'd probably stop at $20-21/year. But we've been waiting for this mystery swoop the whole time and it hasn't happened. Until it does, we shouldn't overpay if we don't have to.