Update: HOLLIDAY A CARD 7yr/120 million, p178

[Richie Allen]

It was pretty widely documented that the Orioles made a 8/130 million dollar offer before back peddling and saying, "uh, wait, no we didn't do that." It's idiotic to think no one else was interested.

[cards2468]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... -cardinals

Fangraphs says Boras and Holliday win since we'll be paying him market value for an extended period of time.

I still think people need to consider the great likelyhood the market will drastically inflate within the next few years and also the likelyhood we're all dead before the 2013 season.

[skmsw]

So the question is....did Mo get fleeced by Boras?

Depends on your approach.

If you think of it in terms of "did the team get the most desireable length and dollars they possibly could have, considering the other players available and the other teams involved?" then the answer is probably (or emphatically) "yes, boras won."

But if you think of it in terms of how much the Cards paid relative to how much they were willing to pay, and relative to the value they placed on retaining the player, then the answer is probably (or emphatically) "no, the Cards negotiations were almost certainly both successful and effective." The fact that the player and agent come out of it looking OK (whether saving face or genuinely satisfied) is not a bad thing, and does not invalidate the likelihood that the Cards a) got their man; b) satisfied AP; c) paid less than they were actually willing to; and d) paid less than they actually valued the player as being worth.

I'm making assumptions about what they were willing to pay and about what they valued Holliday as worth to them, BUT, in looking at their revenue, their payroll, their stated payroll goals, and a lot of different models for player valuation > I think I'm on pretty firm ground.

[TimeForGuinness]

Isn't it possible that everyone wins?

Hollliday wins: Gets fair value, years, and NTC
Mo wins: Cards get Holliday (and by default...possibly Pujols)
Boras wins: He gets nice paycheck and reputation isn't tarnished.
Card's fans wins: Holliday + Pujols + Carp + Waino together for 3 years.

[RickStain]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... -cardinals

Fangraphs says Boras and Holliday win since we'll be paying him market value for an extended period of time.

I still think people need to consider the great likelyhood the market will drastically inflate within the next few years and also the likelyhood we're all dead before the 2013 season.

Fangraphs is making an assumption that I really hate: that all wins are worth the same to all teams. Win value is more like a very skinny bell curve.

The value of wins for a team expected to win less than 85 is pretty small. The value of wins for a team expected to win over 95 is pretty small. It's the wins in between that have a ton of value.

The Cardinals are smack in the middle of the area marginal wins are incredibly valuable, so it makes sense for them to pay a premium to lock those wins in with talent that is highly likely to produce, as opposed to taking a riskier, possibly better cost-to-value option.

[sighyoung]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... -cardinals

Fangraphs says Boras and Holliday win since we'll be paying him market value for an extended period of time.

I still think people need to consider the great likelyhood the market will drastically inflate within the next few years and also the likelyhood we're all dead before the 2013 season.

Fangraphs is making an assumption that I really hate: that all wins are worth the same to all teams. Win value is more like a very skinny bell curve.

The value of wins for a team expected to win less than 85 is pretty small. The value of wins for a team expected to win over 95 is pretty small. It's the wins in between that have a ton of value.

The Cardinals are smack in the middle of the area marginal wins are incredibly valuable, so it makes sense for them to pay a premium to lock those wins in with talent that is highly likely to produce, as opposed to taking a riskier, possibly better cost-to-value option.

That's a very good point--that marginal value of wins is related to their likelihood of getting you into the playoffs. And Steve's comments are also good.

[sighyoung]

Isn't it possible that everyone wins?

Hollliday wins: Gets fair value, years, and NTC
Mo wins: Cards get Holliday (and by default...possibly Pujols)
Boras wins: He gets nice paycheck and reputation isn't tarnished.
Card's fans wins: Holliday + Pujols + Carp + Waino together for 3 years.

++

[Swingingbunt]

Isn't it possible that everyone wins?

Hollliday wins: Gets fair value, years, and NTC
Mo wins: Cards get Holliday (and by default...possibly Pujols)
Boras wins: He gets nice paycheck and reputation isn't tarnished.
Card's fans wins: Holliday + Pujols + Carp + Waino together for 3 years.

Tim Kurkjian has a nice article up which basically says everyone wins. He talks a little about the possibility of an issue re-signing Pujols, but focuses more on the fact that this was a good match for everyone involved.

[ManEatingTarp]

Isn't it possible that everyone wins?

Hollliday wins: Gets fair value, years, and NTC
Mo wins: Cards get Holliday (and by default...possibly Pujols)
Boras wins: He gets nice paycheck and reputation isn't tarnished.
Card's fans wins: Holliday + Pujols + Carp + Waino together for 3 years.

++

+++

I think this says it perfectly. I think we're poised to go on a very nice run of baseball for the next half decade. It's up to the scouting department, minor leagues and MO to find the pieces that fit.

The rest of the division is going to be terrible for the next couple of years, so in the near future it comes down to staying healthy.

[tscards]

Isn't it possible that everyone wins?

Hollliday wins: Gets fair value, years, and NTC
Mo wins: Cards get Holliday (and by default...possibly Pujols)
Boras wins: He gets nice paycheck and reputation isn't tarnished.
Card's fans wins: Holliday + Pujols + Carp + Waino together for 3 years.

++

+++

I think this says it perfectly. I think we're poised to go on a very nice run of baseball for the next half decade. It's up to the scouting department, minor leagues and MO to find the pieces that fit.

The rest of the division is going to be terrible for the next couple of years, so in the near future it comes down to staying healthy.

Yep Yep Yep!!!

'nuff said...