Extremely Early 2010 MLB Projected Standings

[JackofDiamonds]

LA coming in 3rd or 4th wouldn't surprise me much. The AL West should be a dogfight.

ok mike vick

Take that WWII pilots, Vick is the first thought for the term dogfight for now on.

[InvincibleCakeEater]

LA coming in 3rd or 4th wouldn't surprise me much. The AL West should be a dogfight.

ok mike vick

fixed

[Jocephus]

LA coming in 3rd or 4th wouldn't surprise me much. The AL West should be a dogfight.

ok mike vick

fixed

ok marcelino

[jim]

Not to mention that the Phillies win the NL East with only 88 wins.

These ratings are pretty weird.

Not really. It's not saying that 89 wins take the NLC and 88 take the NLE. Say you did 5 sims and got:

STL (90,94,81,87,93)
CIN (83,81,87,80,84)

If my math is correct, that's 89 wins for St. Louis, 83 for Cincy, and 90.2 games to win the division. The number of projected wins for any team will always be lower than the number of projected wins to win the division.

[Eephus Speed]

The Angels had - by far - the best run differential in the AL West last year. LAA was +122, Texas was +44, Oakland was -2 and Seattle was -52.

Weaver, Kazmir, Pineiro, Saunders and Santana should make for a good rotation. Lackey pitched 176 innings with a 3.83 ERA, and Kazmir could match that. Matsui replaces Vlad. Who replaces Matthews? Who cares. Figgins is the biggest loss, but Brandon Wood isn't hopeless. I guess their LF and CF defense could be pretty ugly, though. They won 97 games last year, so they can afford to lose some ground.

Texas and Seattle do look pretty good, but I think the Angels take the AL West once again.

[Jocephus]

The Angels had - by far - the best run differential in the AL West last year. LAA was +122, Texas was +44, Oakland was -2 and Seattle was -52.

Weaver, Kazmir, Pineiro, Saunders and Santana should make for a good rotation. Lackey pitched 176 innings with a 3.83 ERA, and Kazmir could match that. Matsui replaces Vlad. Who replaces Matthews? Who cares. Figgins is the biggest loss, but Brandon Wood isn't hopeless. I guess their LF and CF defense could be pretty ugly, though. They won 97 games last year, so they can afford to lose some ground.

Texas and Seattle do look pretty good, but I think the Angels take the AL West once again.

[haltz]

the only thing that stinks is that you can't figure in injuries.

DMB has random injuries and the individual projections will factor in past performance. Eg, if it has Carp making 17 starts as his baseline or average performance in each iteration, that's a decent way to say that he's a serious risk.

Also, remember that these projections are more of a talent estimation than anything else and are an average of playing the season 1,000 times on a simulator. In a single season, almost anything can happen.

[jim]

The Angels had - by far - the best run differential in the AL West last year. LAA was +122, Texas was +44, Oakland was -2 and Seattle was -52.

Weaver, Kazmir, Pineiro, Saunders and Santana should make for a good rotation. Lackey pitched 176 innings with a 3.83 ERA, and Kazmir could match that. Matsui replaces Vlad. Who replaces Matthews? Who cares. Figgins is the biggest loss, but Brandon Wood isn't hopeless. I guess their LF and CF defense could be pretty ugly, though. They won 97 games last year, so they can afford to lose some ground.

Texas and Seattle do look pretty good, but I think the Angels take the AL West once again.

The Angels ALWAYS have the best run differential (well, not always, but close to it). Even Bill James this year in his handbook admitted that it was more than luck.

http://gatewayredbirds.com/forum/viewto ... ia#p830148

[jim]

the only thing that stinks is that you can't figure in injuries.

DMB has random injuries and the individual projections will factor in past performance. Eg, if it has Carp making 17 starts as his baseline or average performance in each iteration, that's a decent way to say that he's a serious risk.

Also, remember that these projections are more of a talent estimation than anything else and are an average of playing the season 1,000 times on a simulator. In a single season, almost anything can happen.

They have more than random injuries haltz ... they give injury ratings to players.

[haltz]

I don't think he uses that feature. It seems pretty subjective and you can get pretty good results without messing with it.