Extremely Early 2010 MLB Projected Standings

[JL21]

Just to clarify, I wasn't suggesting that the Halos took a huge hit by losing Vlad and Lackey and Figgins. Only that their name recognition is why people think they lost more than they actually did, and why they're now underrated.

In short, rat and Aloe, I agree with both of you.

[greenback44]

For 2009 the Angels get killed in second- and third-order win percentage, basically the stuff that feeds WAR. The A's are the reverse. Seems like a perennial problem that the projection computers have for both teams.

I think it's interesting too that the A's would probably be considered the team more likely to follow the numbers more closely.

The A's are doing the baseball projections equivalent of teaching to the test.

Then again, PECOTA apparently has a problem:

Reading through the comments of yesterday’s announcement that the PECOTA projections have been released, it is evident that there is a lot of concern over several aspects of the data, ranging from the projected standings to individual quirks. We understand and appreciate that this reflects a lot of passion for what we do here at Baseball Prospectus. To be blunt: we messed up, and are working to fix the issues.

One issue involves the run environment: individual player projections do not match up with the run totals on the projected standings.

Another problem revolves around BABIP, as defense was being double-counted (double-counted).

These and other issues are being worked on and we hope to have an update provided by the end of the day, to unmess up. Please stay tuned for further updates.

That's embarrassing for them obviously, but it's nice to see BPro own up to it. Not sure they would've done that two years ago.

[jim]

Two years ago they didn't have their Ray in the hole. I think it's always been an outstanding projection system, but the Rays pick really converted some disbelievers I think.

[Eephus Speed]

Just to clarify, I wasn't suggesting that the Halos took a huge hit by losing Vlad and Lackey and Figgins. Only that their name recognition is why people think they lost more than they actually did, and why they're now underrated.

That shouldn't matter to the objective projection systems, though. Even the DMB projection has the Angels finishing at .500. I guess they expect Morales and Co. to regress quite a bit.

[InvincibleCakeEater]

The Reds don't have nearly enough pitching to compete. Maybe if 90% of their innings pitch to a best case scenario, but that's just not gonna happen.

Exactly. Mike Lincoln is competing for the 5th spot for Gods sake.

[Cronos]

Exactly. Mike Lincoln is competing for the 5th spot for Gods sake.

AHAHAHAHA. Yeah. That will end well.

[GodWeenSanto]

Well Jim, be an Angels fan for a year and we'll welcome you back next year if you want.

[InvincibleCakeEater]

Well Jim, be an Angels fan for a year and we'll welcome you back next year if you want.

I think he's an Angels fan every year.

[Hungary Jack]

Exactly. Mike Lincoln is competing for the 5th spot for Gods sake.

AHAHAHAHA. Yeah. That will end well.

This cannot be true, right? For Chrissake, Braden Looper is out there, waiting to be had. And then there's Tim Redding and Brett Tomko.

[Eephus Speed]

Redding has been signed. Pedro, Washburn, Smoltz, Bedard, Wang, LHernandez and Jeff Weaver are still available.

I'd guess Matt Maloney and Micah "I'm a better hitter than pitcher" Owings are the leading candidates for the 5th spot in their rotation. CHONE's projection for Maloney is decent (166 IP with a 4.45 ERA).

Harang
Arroyo
Cueto
Bailey
Maloney

Until Volquez returns. Or until one of the above goes on the DL after Baker had him throw 120 pitches for the umpteenth consecutive time.

They probably should have signed Garland or Pineiro.