I certainly don't think that your posts are overly pessimistic. In fact your projection of Renteria in Boston was way too optimistic. You also poo pooed my suggestion that he couldn't handle the fish bowl in Fenway. Each time he went on one of his mini hitting streaks you proclaimed that the drought was over. And 30 errors. (#-o)skmsw wrote: As a mostly unrelated aside, I suppose a lot of folks just seeing my posts for the first time this year probably think I come down on the negative side of just about everything. Not so.
Those who were around in 2003-04 might recall a long string of wildly "optimistic" views and projections -- unpopularly so, since at the time the broad consensus was that we were a third place team and I was generally thought of as being polyanish, just liking everything and never seeing a downside (which of course was just as inaccurate as those who might now think I never see any upside).
I nailed Carpenter's 2004 season, I projected the 2004 team's runs scored within 5 runs and the runs allowed within around 15. I advised against getting down on Haren just because of the disasterous emergency start, was opposed to sending him back down, and felt that he would be a strong contributor. I expected Tavarez and Suppan to be successful for us. I saw Lankford as a useful addition.
Of course, Bo Hart had an OPS close to 900 after a full month and some 115 AB, and I won a LOT of bets on that, so all the hallmark Steverino ingredients were there back then too. And of course just to round out the picture I was wrong sometimes too (I didn't think Womack belonged on a major league roster, let alone in a starting lineup, and DEFINITELY not batting leadoff).
I use all the same methods, take all the same approaches, and see the same balance now as then; it's not me who is different, it is the team (we've gotten notably worse, so my projections are less optimistic) and the mainstream fans (the team has gone from underestimated to overestimated, so I'm STILL outside the mainstream, but in the opposite direction).
His stay in Boston was such a disaster Boston paid to give him away for a prospect. Now you were too pessimistic about Eck. You said we were in trouble up the middle with Grudz and Eck yet we had more DP's last year than the year before, by a wide margin. You were also surprised that Eck hit as well and that his OBP was as good as it was.
I was too optimistic about Miles. I figured he'd hit the ball a bit better than he has. I also figured he would do better with the glove. I guess when we go out on a limb and try to project what will happen, we win some and lose some. You missed Duncan. Pretty sure about that.
