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skmsw wrote: Lots of theories last year; pitch selection, coaching, philosophical approaches, fatigue, pacing self for longer season, even that he was NO different and simply never actually threw that hard at all.

Maybe they just used the same gun that Bel Ridge uses to check speeders on I-170?

vinsanity wrote:I believe he used his changeup earlier in the counts in his WS start, whereas he used to use his fastball much much more in early counts, letting hitters sit on his fastball later in the count, and adjust for the change.

Plus when you see the same 90 MPH fastball 5 or 6 times a game it's a lot easier to hit.

If I remember correctly, it was actually just the opposite.

His best pitch is his changeup. He fell in love with it. He used it too much when he was called up, rendering it somewhat ineffective.

In the World Series, the Tiger hitters were instructed to look for that changeup. Instead, Reyes continually pounded those hitters with fastballs -- using the change as a complement as opposed to relying on it.

Of course, my argument is statistically flawed. I remember reading that the BAA off of Reyes' changeup was very, very low -- near the top of the league...

Kyle wrote:

vinsanity wrote:I believe he used his changeup earlier in the counts in his WS start, whereas he used to use his fastball much much more in early counts, letting hitters sit on his fastball later in the count, and adjust for the change.

Plus when you see the same 90 MPH fastball 5 or 6 times a game it's a lot easier to hit.

If I remember correctly, it was actually just the opposite.

His best pitch is his changeup. He fell in love with it. He used it too much when he was called up, rendering it somewhat ineffective.

In the World Series, the Tiger hitters were instructed to look for that changeup. Instead, Reyes continually pounded those hitters with fastballs -- using the change as a complement as opposed to relying on it.

Of course, my argument is statistically flawed. I remember reading that the BAA off of Reyes' changeup was very, very low -- near the top of the league...

I think you're on the right track though. The change *is* pretty unhitable. However, he strugled often to throw it for strikes. So he would throw it early in counts, fall behind, then have to come at hitters with a fastball when they were looking for it. With the diminished velocity (and life), it wasn't hard for hitters to make good contact with it.

This was the plague of most Cardinal pitchers last year, including Suppan in the first half. Consistently falling behind in counts and having to come to the hitter with fastballs. Fastballs that were, in general, very hitable because we don't have a quality fastball staff. In the playoffs, Suppan and Weaver were able to throw first pitch strikes, which made their breaking and off-speed stuff much more effective. It helped that both New York and Detroit feature aggressive swingers that prefer fastballs--both of them took a heck of a lot of called breaking-ball strikes.

--P--

Kyle wrote:If I remember correctly, it was actually just the opposite.

His best pitch is his changeup. He fell in love with it. He used it too much when he was called up, rendering it somewhat ineffective.

In the World Series, the Tiger hitters were instructed to look for that changeup. Instead, Reyes continually pounded those hitters with fastballs -- using the change as a complement as opposed to relying on it.

This is exactly how I remember it, though I don't think he even bothered complimenting the fastball all that much in the WS game after the first inning. There was some ridiculously large percentage of fastballs that he threw after the first inning.

Of course, my argument is statistically flawed. I remember reading that the BAA off of Reyes' changeup was very, very low -- near the top of the league...

Not really. Think about it- overreliance on the changeup makes your fastball vulnerable in obvious fastball counts. This is one where statistics aren't going to show what actually happened. It's not that the changeup was getting hammered, it's that the follow-up fastballs later in the count were getting hammered. It's a spectacular changeup but working backwards as much as he was in his mid-to-late season swoon was a big source of the swoon, IMO.

EDIT: Popeye beat me to it.

skmsw wrote: This looks more and more like a slowly-emerging shoulder injury to me.

Phyrkrakr wrote:If he's able to get the four seamer back with good velocity . . .

Key words bolded. Any theories on how or why that would happen?

Good ones? No. He mentioned that he's trying to find it by strengthening his legs, and I'm sure Duncan is watching closely to figure out where those 5 MPH went. I'm buying the shoulder injury more and more as I think about it.

Phyrkrakr wrote:

skmsw wrote: This looks more and more like a slowly-emerging shoulder injury to me.

Phyrkrakr wrote:If he's able to get the four seamer back with good velocity . . .

Key words bolded. Any theories on how or why that would happen?

Good ones? No. He mentioned that he's trying to find it by strengthening his legs, and I'm sure Duncan is watching closely to figure out where those 5 MPH went. I'm buying the shoulder injury more and more as I think about it.

Yeah, I would think that strengthening his legs can't hurt, but is not likely to add 3-5mph to his fastball unless for some reason, in 2006 his legs were less strong than usual. Why would that be? It can't ALL be fatigue from the major league season being longer than he is used to; the velocity was down kind've from the get-go, in fact if I recall he'd had a poor spring training in 06.

Going with the less-strong legs theory, could his increased IP's in 2005 then 2006 have anything to do with it? Or are those reasonable jumps in innings pitched?

2000 - 89
2001 - 109
2002 - 65
2003 - 49
2004 - 110.3
2005 - 141.3
2006 - 169.1

I guess I would wonder if over 180 to 200 innings if that 95 mph fastball might drop to 90 mph due to the fatigue of a full season of pitching, which he really didn't see until 2005.

Donnie Ebert wrote:Going with the less-strong legs theory, could his increased IP's in 2005 then 2006 have anything to do with it? Or are those reasonable jumps in innings pitched?

2000 - 89
2001 - 109
2002 - 65
2003 - 49
2004 - 110.3
2005 - 141.3
2006 - 169.1

I guess I would wonder if over 180 to 200 innings if that 95 mph fastball might drop to 90 mph due to the fatigue of a full season of pitching, which he really didn't see until 2005.

I'm pretty skeptical that a 24-year old power pitcher with a 6'2" 215# build -- who did not pitch between October 2005 and February 2006 --
* would show up in spring training Feb 2006 already fatigued, and
* the fatigue be NOT related to an arm injury
* the fatigue WOULD be related to a 3-5mph loss of velocity, and
* WOULD be correctible via conditioning and building leg strength.

It's not impossible, but it does not seem like a very high-probability explanation, and it does not fit what we know about young pitcher development very well.

I'm far less skeptical that a pitcher who had some arm problems in college -- which caused him to drop from a consensus top five pick all the way down to the 13th round -- and whose command, velocity, and movement all dropped notably and abruptly -- might be experiencing a slowly emerging shoulder injury, that either cannot yet be detected, or that has not been looked for yet.

I know there are some very smart posters on this forum who think that Reyes' injury history and risk are overblown. But the similarities between the situation described above, and a progression of events we saw in the past with Matt Morris and Mark Mulder are pretty notable.

Reyes showed a fairly abrupt loss of velocity and command. Just like Morris and Mulder. Reyes pitched through it, with overall solid if unspectacular results, and glimpses of occasional brilliance. Just like Morris and Mulder. I'll stop the chain of events there . . . for now.

I certainly don't know for sure he is injured, but he looked different almost all of last season to me, and some of the pieces are starting to fit together that way.

skmsw wrote: Reyes showed a fairly abrupt loss of velocity and command. Just like Morris and Mulder. Reyes pitched through it, with overall solid if unspectacular results, and glimpses of occasional brilliance. Just like Morris and Mulder. I'll stop the chain of events there . . . for now.

I certainly don't know for sure he is injured, but he looked different almost all of last season to me, and some of the pieces are starting to fit together that way.

I thought Morris was an elbow injury...

Phyrkrakr wrote:

skmsw wrote: Reyes showed a fairly abrupt loss of velocity and command. Just like Morris and Mulder. Reyes pitched through it, with overall solid if unspectacular results, and glimpses of occasional brilliance. Just like Morris and Mulder. I'll stop the chain of events there . . . for now.

I certainly don't know for sure he is injured, but he looked different almost all of last season to me, and some of the pieces are starting to fit together that way.

I thought Morris was an elbow injury...

Morris had elbow and shoulder injuries at the start of his career. But the problem he had in 03-04 was shoulder.