Soriano's 2007

[98navigator]

The Soriano signing sucks, but it's the length and the dollar amount, not his ability. He hits leadoff because he hits significantly better(and gets on base significantly better) from that spot. I don't know if all those walks he added last year will stay(Gerald Perry gives me hope, but I won't hold my breath), but I think getting away from RFK will add some XBH's. I hate making predictions, but I guess his career line from the leadoff spot(.291/.340/.544/.884) wouldn't be a huge stretch.

QFT

[haltz]

Does anybody here think that if Soriano hits .270 with 45 homers and 95 RBI, he will not be helping the Cubs???

Whether or not he, at $136M is ultimately detrimental to the franchise over the next 7-8 years, I am pretty sure that no one thinks he doesn't make the Cubs better in 2007. I'd probably take the under on .270/45/95 by a bit, but he's essentially replacing Juan Pierre. The Cubs will be substantially better partly because of him this year, obviously.

Thing is, I see him being an average corner outfielder for several years of his huge contract. Felix Pie will probably be the more valuable CF'er and Soriano's hitting may not look so hot in RF from 2010-2014 or whatever. Honestly though, who knows, that's the problem with these mega-deals, obviously, especially for a guy who hasn't established elite performance.

I don't know, maybe he really is a guy that is going to hit better in a certain spot in the order. But, I'd put his SLG pct.-heavy OPS farther down in the order.

I linked this in another thread, but here is an interesting take on Soriano this year.

Center field represents a microcosm of the universe of problems that have stricken the Cubs in the Hendry era. I won’t review it all, but you have the failure to develop position prospects, scapegoating and booing, and giving up good prospects for a veteran in his walk year. Right now it’s unclear who will be the Cubs’ center fielder in 2007, but Alfonso Soriano is perhaps the prime candidate, with a strong possibility that Jacque Jones will be moved over. Alternatively, the Cubs could trade for a center fielder, or give Felix Pie the job, but neither seems very likely. Soriano is a very good ballplayer, and the Cubs will pay for that premium, but it’s frustrating to see them go for a star whose weaknesses at the plate epitomize the entire team. You would almost conclude that bad plate discipline is a team philosophy. Soriano is a lot like other recent and current Cubs, Sammy Sosa for one. At the age of 29, Sosa drew a career high in walks, and hit 66 HR. Soriano also showed a big spike in walks last year, and who knows, we may be on the verge of something special. At the same time, Soriano has been a sloppy hacker up to this point, and has somehow managed to be successful because of his awesome physical talents. He’s just a bit of refinement away from being a truly elite player, and blowing his ZiPS projection out of the water. On the other hand, the young Corey Patterson looked like a less lanky version of Soriano a lot of the time, and look what happened to him. On top of that, Felix Pie is about to enter the picture. It’s fair to wonder, despite Sosa’s success story, whether the Cubs are the right team nowadays for taking raw hitting talent to the next level. In any case, the Cubs are virtually guaranteed to see a huge offensive boost at center field. Despite Wrigley having a defense-friendly center field, there are major questions about Soriano’s or Jones’ ability to handle the position.

[98navigator]

I wonder why teams keep hitting him leadoff with that kind of obp.

I don't get it either. Just because I guy can steal bases, does that make him leadoff worthy?
Why not bat Soriano 5th. That way he can drive in the big bats, and if he gets a single can get himself into scroing position for the bottom of the order?
I know he sucks w/ runners in scoring position, but I'd bat him 5th.

All of his numbers are better at leadoff (including OBP). I can't say I'd be disappointed with 45 homeruns and 95+ RBI.

But at that huge $$ figure, low .OBP, and poor defense?

His career OBP at leadoff is much better than his overall stats would indicate. I'm also not convinced that his defense will be poor; he will be average and possibly better than that in the OF.

Soriano is viewed as a poor defender because he was mis-cast as a second baseman for so long. In the OF he will be better. Don't get me wrong, I think he will misjudge some balls in CF but I expect that he will make the overwhelming majority of plays. His strong arm also adds to his value because he has the ability to throw out runners.

[Popeye_Card]

Does anybody here think that if Soriano hits .270 with 45 homers and 95 RBI, he will not be helping the Cubs???

Oh, I'm sure he'll help.

He helped the Nationals last year too with what most likely was his career year. Despite having other good bats on the team (Johnson, Zimmerman, Church, Kearns), the Nationals scored 746 runs--10th in the league.

The Cubs finished 15th in runs scored last year. They were 10th in slugging percentage, and 16th in OBP. Now, with hopefully a full season from Derrek Lee plus Soriano instead of Pierre, they'll probably be 15th and 5th in those same categories. You know as well as anyone that OBP has a very good correlation with runs scored. Soriano's career .325 mark in that area probably isn't going to help the Cubs much.

--P--

[skmsw]

I think Soriano's splits as a leadoff hitter are not related to an actual ability or state of mind; I think they will gravitate towards his overall averages.

But that said, I still think that when we look at Soriano, we should be looking at what he does for the team, not what he does for the payroll. The fact that he might be overpaid, perhaps grossly overpaid for a portion of his contract, is not relevent unless it results in the team not spending in other needed areas. And there is no indication that that is currently the case; they may make poor choices, but those choices will not be linked to the degree to which Soriano's overpaid.

I'd put the 2007 over/under on Soriano's OBP at about .335. SLG at about .525. At those numbers he will be very valuable to the Cubs, especially if he plays even a marginally competent CF. His salary is not a factor in this conversation -- if it were, Marquis would not be sitting on a $21mm contract right now.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Does anybody here think that if Soriano hits .270 with 45 homers and 95 RBI, he will not be helping the Cubs???

Oh, I'm sure he'll help.

He helped the Nationals last year too with what most likely was his career year. Despite having other good bats on the team (Johnson, Zimmerman, Church, Kearns), the Nationals scored 746 runs--10th in the league.

That's a slanted way of looking at it. Church and Kearns didn't even combine for a full season of play, and for every Johsnon, Soriano, and Zimmerman there was someone equally if not more awful(Schneider, Clayton, Guillen, and Byrd all under .700 OPS). Of course, none of that's really germane to Soriano.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think Soriano's splits as a leadoff hitter are not related to an actual ability or state of mind; I think they will gravitate towards his overall averages.

At one point do you reconsider that? I mean, I'm as big a proponent as any to the "lineup protection doesn't have an impact" concept, and I don't really believe in the "closer mindset". However, Soriano's at 2227 PA's from the leadoff spot and 1991 elsewhere in the lineup. That's a pretty significant sample.

[Popeye_Card]

Does anybody here think that if Soriano hits .270 with 45 homers and 95 RBI, he will not be helping the Cubs???

Oh, I'm sure he'll help.

He helped the Nationals last year too with what most likely was his career year. Despite having other good bats on the team (Johnson, Zimmerman, Church, Kearns), the Nationals scored 746 runs--10th in the league.

That's a slanted way of looking at it. Church and Kearns didn't even combine for a full season of play, and for every Johsnon, Soriano, and Zimmerman there was someone equally if not more awful(Schneider, Clayton, Guillen, and Byrd all under .700 OPS). Of course, none of that's really germane to Soriano.

It is sort of slanted. But Soriano wasn't in a terrible offense, and even with his contributions, it wasn't even average.

His incredible season last year resulted in a 132 OPS+. That's a good number, but if that's going to be his career high, he's going to leave much to be desired for a player making $16 million a season.

I think the Cubs' offense is going to hinge more around Derrek Lee and whether he's more of the 2005 version or the rest-of-his-career version moreso than Soriano hitting 40+ HR.

--P--

[98navigator]

Derrek Lee doesn't need to match his career high for the offense to be good. The important thing is he is healthy. As such, he will be an offensive force (whether it be at career averages or better). At this point, it's hard to argue against the Cubs having one of the best, if not the most potent, offense in the NL.

[Popeye_Card]

At this point, it's hard to argue against the Cubs having one of the best, if not the most potent, offense in the NL.

It's not really that hard.

Let me reiterate--the Cubs were 15th in runs scored last year in the NL. They have added Soriano over Pierre, substituted some OF AB's with Floyd, and hope to have 400 more AB's from Derrek Lee. That bumps them all the way up to #1? Now, if that's 170 OPS+ Derrek Lee and 132 OPS+ Soriano, they could be good. If it's career average Lee (123) and career average Soriano (115), then I fail to see how the Cubs will be an offensive juggernaut.

That's 2 players projected to be above 120 (Lee and Ramirez), 4 in the 100-120 range (Soriano, Barrett, Murton/Floyd, Jones), and 2 in the sub-100 levels (Cedeno/Izturis, DeRosa).

Compare that to the Cardinals. 2 above 120 (Rolen and Pujols), 2 in the 100-120 range (Edmonds and Duncan), and 4 in the sub-100 range (Kennedy, Encarnacion, Eckstein, Molina). The Cardinals are projected to be middle-of-the-pack or worse right now.

The difference is, Pujols is consitently a 170+ threat, where Lee has been there just once. If Lee reaches those levels again, the Cubs could indeed be very good. But as it stands now, the Cubs have a lot of good bats, but they're lacking a great bat or two to make it to that next level.

--P--