RC21 wrote:The Brewers' rotation, though, is pretty stout. I didn't realize what they'd put together until I saw the P-D baseball preview. Granted, it's all contingent on Sheets' health, but....
-Sheets, healthy, approximates Carpenter
-Soup is Soup
-Capuano is a burgeoning work horse with a solid arm and a few years of good numbers now
-David Bush: I don't know much about his arm, but his numbers look like he's on the verge of becoming good to very good.
And then Claudio Vargas is their #5, and isn't bad at all for a 5. That's a pretty solid quartet at the top end.
But yeah, World Series is a bit zealous.
Soup is Soup..... but with a much worse infield defense behind him.
And you won't stop hearing about Samardzjia if you keep reading Jim "cubs fan" Callis' comments. He answers at least 2 questions about him/Pie/Veal every week. I'm serious. Go back and look it up.
I'm not entirely on the 'Soup will be worse' bandwagon. He's had crappy infield defense behind him before and still ran up a league-average ballpark-adjusted ERA (a few years in KC, for instance).
The ERA will be worse, but I bet the ERA+ is right where it has been since Cecil Fielder roamed the MLB earth.
RC21 wrote:The Brewers' rotation, though, is pretty stout. I didn't realize what they'd put together until I saw the P-D baseball preview. Granted, it's all contingent on Sheets' health, but....
-Sheets, healthy, approximates Carpenter
-Soup is Soup
-Capuano is a burgeoning work horse with a solid arm and a few years of good numbers now
-David Bush: I don't know much about his arm, but his numbers look like he's on the verge of becoming good to very good.
And then Claudio Vargas is their #5, and isn't bad at all for a 5. That's a pretty solid quartet at the top end.
But yeah, World Series is a bit zealous.
They could actually be pretty darn good if they had a defense.
But their really bad D will probably raise each of those pitchers' ERA by half a run over what it should be.
RC21 wrote:I'm not entirely on the 'Soup will be worse' bandwagon. He's had crappy infield defense behind him before and still ran up a league-average ballpark-adjusted ERA (a few years in KC, for instance).
The ERA will be worse, but I bet the ERA+ is right where it has been since Cecil Fielder roamed the MLB earth.
I feel Soup's ERA (which is subjective) and, more importantly, his "TRA" (total run average) will go up due to the defense behind him.
Do the Brewers strike you as a team that can offensively overcome the increase in Soup's "TRA"? (If there's a different stat or acronym for total run average, please let me know.)
RC21 wrote:Bush and Capuano (and even Sheets for half a year) all had solid numbers with the same defense behind them in '06.
They didn't have Bill Hall as a centerfielder.
I'm saying that in general for the team, they could be a lot better--true contenders for a World Series--if their defense wasn't poor. That defense will cost them more than 1 win a month, I'm guessing, over an average defense.
RC21 wrote:I'm not entirely on the 'Soup will be worse' bandwagon. He's had crappy infield defense behind him before and still ran up a league-average ballpark-adjusted ERA (a few years in KC, for instance).
The ERA will be worse, but I bet the ERA+ is right where it has been since Cecil Fielder roamed the MLB earth.
I feel Soup's ERA (which is subjective) and, more importantly, his "TRA" (total run average) will go up due to the defense behind him.
Do the Brewers strike you as a team that can offensively overcome the increase in Soup's "TRA"? (If there's a different stat or acronym for total run average, please let me know.)
RA is what you see for that.
Their offense isn't bad at all, and I do think his ERA (and RA) will go up some. I just don't think it's going to explode. I mean, league average was 4.49 last year and he was at 4.12. In fact, the 4.00-4.25 range is where he's been since '03 (except for '05, when he was better). So an additional .4 runs puts him right around league average. I don't know. I have a hard time looking past his track record. It's soooo long at this point.
Poor Brewers. Fourteen straight seasons without a winning record and now they enter the 2007 season burdened with the expectation to get to the World Series.
Richie Allen wrote:Poor Brewers. Fourteen straight seasons without a winning record and now they enter the 2007 season burdened with the expectation to get to the World Series.
Something tells me they won't take it too seriously or be too stressed out about it.
