Fair enough. I don't think we disagree too much, anyway.RC21 wrote:I think your'e reading about 10 times too much into what I said.
In 2004 and 2005, Reyes was a dominant pitcher with dominant control. He threw hard and with a lot of life. Whether you looked at his minor league numbers or whether you watched him throw, he looked like a very high-end prospect.Socnorb11 wrote:Reyes was mostly outstanding in spring training, and solid in his first start.
I guess I don't understand all of the fuss. Maybe people were duped into thinking that he was the future ace of the staff, but his upside has typically been that of a decent #2 or good #3. I don't think that's changed.
A high, hard, straight fastball is not a death mark when:BW42 wrote:I think Reyes' hype peaked when he was in AA, and he's just not that kind of pitcher that everyone thought he'd be.
He threw a lot of 94 mph fastballs at the top of the strikezone in the minors. That same ball is something that will be, and has been, crushed by major leaguers. That's why Dunc wanted him to add to his arsenal, and he has failed to be consistent with that. And I'm not convinced he has enough to be successful that way.
I hope I'm wrong.
I tend to disagree. He only pitched 74 innings that year at AA, and he was almost 23. He put up a 3.64 ERA in his first "full" season at AAA. And, the arm worries have always been there.The Third Man wrote:Reyes' upside was never only that of a decent #2 at best. Huh?! The average #1 pitcher typically puts up a 121 ERA+ - easily within Reyes' upside.
A 22-year old pitcher with a mid-90's fastball, with a stellar change-up, average curve, and excellent command, who puts up a 12.35 K/9, 1.57 BB/9, 0.36 HR/9, 1.01 WHIP, and 2.91 ERA in Double-A is far, far more promising than "a decent #2 or good #3."
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. . . AND for whatever reason has lost some of the velocity that allows you to get some of those pitches by hitters, provides separation from the off-speed stuff, etc. And for whatever reason has lost some of the late-tailing action that allows medium-clock fastballs to pitch like high-clock fastballs.The problem, to me, isn't that Reyes is throwing high and hard - it's that he has, for whatever reason, lost the command that would allow him to be successful with that attack plan.
"Only" 74 innings? You don't put up across-the-board dominant periphs like that by mistake. This wasn't some sample-size fluke.Socnorb11 wrote:I tend to disagree. He only pitched 74 innings that year at AA, and he was almost 23. He put up a 3.64 ERA in his first "full" season at AAA. And, the arm worries have always been there.
That, too, of course.skmsw wrote:. . . AND for whatever reason has lost some of the velocity that allows you to get some of those pitches by hitters, provides separation from the off-speed stuff, etc. And for whatever reason has lost some of the late-tailing action that allows medium-clock fastballs to pitch like high-clock fastballs.
Tell Duncan, not me.The Third Man wrote:A high, hard, straight fastball is not a death mark when:BW42 wrote:I think Reyes' hype peaked when he was in AA, and he's just not that kind of pitcher that everyone thought he'd be.
He threw a lot of 94 mph fastballs at the top of the strikezone in the minors. That same ball is something that will be, and has been, crushed by major leaguers. That's why Dunc wanted him to add to his arsenal, and he has failed to be consistent with that. And I'm not convinced he has enough to be successful that way.
I hope I'm wrong.
A) You have the type of command that Reyes displayed
B) You have a great off-speed pitch like Reyes' changeup which breaks down in the zone
Curt Schilling throws high, hard, straight but he has put together, at worst, a borderline HoF career because of stellar command and his splitter.
He allowed 37 homers in 2001 and still put up a 154 ERA+ because he only walked 39 guys and struck out 293. I'm not saying Reyes would be as good as Schilling - I don't think anybody would ever expect him to put up those monstrous K-rates - but the analogy is, in my opinion, essentially correct.
The same thing applies to Daisuke Matsuzaka right now - he throws a 94-95 MPH four-seamer up in the zone, but has command and good off-speed pitches that will allow him to be successful.
The problem, to me, isn't that Reyes is throwing high and hard - it's that he has, for whatever reason, lost the command that would allow him to be successful with that attack plan.
