The almighty save!

[mcgee51taguchi99]

It made sense either way to keep Flores in the game to start the 9th or to bring in Izzy. Flores basically got 4 outs in the 9th and it wasn't enough. When the tying run is at the plate in the top of the 9th and your closer is available, you bring him in.

[JL21]

Who else did you have left in the pen: Franklin (Prolly could have done the job), Hancock (eh, maybe), Johnson (LHP, and 2 righties comming up), Thompson (50/50 if he could have gotten the job done)

You think there's a 50% chance that he couldn't get one out before they got 3 runs?

A pitcher would have to be really, really bad to have a less than 50% chance of getting one out before giving up 3 runs.

[skmsw]

Some stream-of-consciousness thoughts provoked by your post:

"Closers" are among the most over-rated players in baseball, and in my opinion are very often used ineffectively, inefficiently, or both.

TLR is undeniably one of the architects of the modern era of "closing," and probably invented the "ace reliever who comes on in the top of the ninth with none on and none out and a lead of one to three runs no matter what."

Once TLR's innovation spread, I suspect that teams feel a certain need to get their closer into every save situation, if only to pad the numbers to justify having a pitcher on the staff who makes $8mm a year to pitch 50 innings. At the end of the year, we'll remember the 40 saves, and not the fact that 38 of them would have been converted by almost any league-average pitcher put in the role. Or the fact that probably about 12 of them actually entailed any heavy lifting -- facing the tying run, coming in with men on base, entering in a one-run game, etc.

I like how the Red Sox are going about this. Everyone remembers their "failed attempt at a bullpen by committee" as evidence that "teams need a good closer." I think that if they stuck with the plan it would have worked, but anyhow, even today with Pap, there is an interesting innovation. Example: April 13 against LAA. Boston is leading 4-1 in the eighth. With one out, there's a hit batsman, a single, and a throwing error -- runners at second and third, only one out, no DP situation, and Vlad at bat as the tying run, and Garrett Anderson on deck.

What to do? So many choices! Intentionally walk Vlad? Start the lefty-righty carousel of set-up men? The irony is, all of the current conventional wisdom approaches will result in Papelbon pitching in the 9th to the bottom of the lineup, at a time when the game is already in hand. The heavy lifting is NOW, when the middle of the order is up, a base hit makes it a one-run game, and an elite slugger is at bat as the potential tying run.

Here's what the Sox do. They bring in Papelbon right there. And as he is walking out of the pen towards the mound to take his warm-up tosses, they get Timlin up in the pen! The plan is, bring in your BEST PITCHER at the moment the game is on the line, to get you out of the jam. If he is successful and you have a two or three run lead in the 9th, practically anyone on the staff can come on in the ninth and "manage" to get three outs before the opposition strings together enough hits to tie the game or take the lead. Papelbon comes on with the game on the line; if he does his job, Timlin can HAVE the so-called "save." Let him pitch the 9th, give up a single and a walk, get the third out before any runs score, and collect the save; that's FINE for a 9th inning facing the bottom of the order with a lead -- but it is NOT fine with men on base, the tying run at the plate, and the middle of the order due up with five outs to go.

Papelbon comes on to strike out Vlad (no easy feat -- despite his free-swinging ways, Vlad strikes out an average of about 65 times a season). Anderson is retired on a floater to left. As the Sox come off the field, Timlin is ready and marches from the bullpen to the dugout to pitch the 9th with a three-run lead.

The Sox score 6 in the bottom of the 8th, and Timlin is deprived of his "save." But the willingness to deploy his most effective pitcher at a key spot may have been the difference.

[jim]

It made sense either way to keep Flores in the game to start the 9th or to bring in Izzy. Flores basically got 4 outs in the 9th and it wasn't enough. When the tying run is at the plate in the top of the 9th and your closer is available, you bring him in.

Not disagreeing with you, but do you honestly think Flores would have stayed in the game with a 2 or 3 run lead (i.e. save situation) entering the 9th? I don't.

And he didn't wait that long. He brought Izzy in at the precise moment the save situation kicked in.

My point is you have a pretty good relief pitcher that isn't a spring chicken anymore. Don't yank around with him. Don't sit him back down only to get him back up again. It's one thing doing that with a 25 year old healthy pitcher, it's another doing it with an older guy that has had some health issues. The act of warming up, sitting down, and warming up again isn't easy.

[Hungary Jack]

It made sense either way to keep Flores in the game to start the 9th or to bring in Izzy. Flores basically got 4 outs in the 9th and it wasn't enough. When the tying run is at the plate in the top of the 9th and your closer is available, you bring him in.

If my memory is correct:

Flores pitching to:
Dunn: leadoff double
Jr.: ground out, Dunn to third, first out of inning
Encarnacion: popup second out
Hatteberg: rbi single

Izzy pitching to:
Gonzalez: error by Eck, should be third out, 2 on 2 out
PH Valentin: force out third out

The only issue I can see is getting Izzy up twice. I think the plan was to let Flores face the first 4 batters (lefty, lefty, righty, lefty) in the ninth, and then see what transpired.

[JL21]

Steve, in TLR's defense (and I think you'll agree), he's gotten much more innovative in recent years with closer usage. He's started using his best reliever (closer) in high leverage situations, even if it meant the 8th. He didn't flinch at using Wainwright in the role when Isringhausen broke down, and he also wasn't afraid to use a mix-and-match guy in a key spot instead of Wainwright at the end of last year.

I'm almost reaching the point where I think closers have been "overrated" for so long (the last 3-4 years) that they're starting to become "underrated" again. Ok, maybe not underrated but their rep is starting to match their role.

[JL21]

Don't yank around with him. Don't sit him back down only to get him back up again. It's one thing doing that with a 25 year old healthy pitcher, it's another doing it with an older guy that has had some health issues. The act of warming up, sitting down, and warming up again isn't easy.

In the parlance of everyone's favorite kooky dinosaur-fighting left-handed ex-Cardinal Steve Kline, "don't dry-hump" him.

[jim]

It made sense either way to keep Flores in the game to start the 9th or to bring in Izzy. Flores basically got 4 outs in the 9th and it wasn't enough. When the tying run is at the plate in the top of the 9th and your closer is available, you bring him in.

If my memory is correct:

Flores pitching to:
Dunn: leadoff double
Jr.: ground out, Dunn to third, first out of inning
Encarnacion: popup second out
Hatteberg: rbi single

Izzy pitching to:
Gonzalez: error by Eck, should be third out, 2 on 2 out
PH Valentin: force out third out

The only issue I can see is getting Izzy up twice. I think the plan was to let Flores face the first 4 batters (lefty, lefty, righty, lefty) in the ninth, and then see what transpired.

Say the score is 3-1 in the top of the 9th. Do you think that is the plan still? I don't. And the only issue that you see is probably the only issue I see as well - I'm just saying it wasn't necessary, it was driven by the save stat, and it is more damaging than most people realize. I think you need to baby Izzy at this point of his career, the easiest thing for him is to warm up and come in. Regardless of the score, I would have called down and told him he was coming in either to face Encarnacion or Gonzales, and let Flores pitch up to Encarnacion or Gonzales. But I guarantee that isn't what happened, the save situation drove his decision making.

I'm not even talking about leverage situation here, I'm talking about the physical toll to warm up, sit down, warm up, and come in. It was unnecessary in my opinion. I would not be squawking if he got up once and then came into the game, even if no save was on the line.

Steve - I didn't realize that Francona did that, but I like it. It doesn't surprise me. Ozzie Guillen will do stuff like that too.

[mcgee51taguchi99]

If my memory is correct:

Flores pitching to:
Dunn: leadoff double
Jr.: ground out, Dunn to third, first out of inning
Encarnacion: popup second out
Hatteberg: rbi single

Izzy pitching to:
Gonzalez: error by Eck, should be third out, 2 on 2 out
PH Valentin: force out third out

You're exactly right, my bad.

[Hungary Jack]

It made sense either way to keep Flores in the game to start the 9th or to bring in Izzy. Flores basically got 4 outs in the 9th and it wasn't enough. When the tying run is at the plate in the top of the 9th and your closer is available, you bring him in.

If my memory is correct:

Flores pitching to:
Dunn: leadoff double
Jr.: ground out, Dunn to third, first out of inning
Encarnacion: popup second out
Hatteberg: rbi single

Izzy pitching to:
Gonzalez: error by Eck, should be third out, 2 on 2 out
PH Valentin: force out third out

The only issue I can see is getting Izzy up twice. I think the plan was to let Flores face the first 4 batters (lefty, lefty, righty, lefty) in the ninth, and then see what transpired.

Say the score is 3-1 in the top of the 9th. Do you think that is the plan still? I don't. And the only issue that you see is probably the only issue I see as well - I'm just saying it wasn't necessary, it was driven by the save stat, and it is more damaging than most people realize. I think you need to baby Izzy at this point of his career, the easiest thing for him is to warm up and come in. Regardless of the score, I would have called down and told him he was coming in either to face Encarnacion or Gonzales, and let Flores pitch up to Encarnacion or Gonzales. But I guarantee that isn't what happened, the save situation drove his decision making.

I'm not even talking about leverage situation here, I'm talking about the physical toll to warm up, sit down, warm up, and come in. It was unnecessary in my opinion. I would not be squawking if he got up once and then came into the game, even if no save was on the line.

Steve - I didn't realize that Francona did that, but I like it. It doesn't surprise me. Ozzie Guillen will do stuff like that too.

I don't think the "save stat" has anything to do with TLR's decision-making here. TLR always plays matchups, right? I think Flores was going to face the first two guys regardless, if both had gotten on or scored, then I think Izzy probably faces Edwin (righty), and then perhaps TJ faces Hatteberg, and then Franklin if a righty comes.