End of April Observations...

[Dillagii]

I am not sold on Brewers yet. Anyone remember, Reds were on first place until mid-june in '04. Eventually they came back to earth. I dont think Brewers have the capacity to fire up for one full season. Just my opinion though.

A Cards fan should be worried about Cubs more than Brewers. Cubs pitching sucks, but I think their offense can carry them into the playoffs.

Unfortunately, we don't have both offense and pitching. There are only 3 outs in Cards lineup. Duncan, Albert and Rolen. Rest others are automatic outs. Sad, but true.

[GatewaySnayke]

If we're going to say that the Brewers have overachieved with their offense, then we must also say that the Cubs have overachieved with their rotation, and that 10-14 could be a lot worse.

Yes, Milwaukee has gotten big numbers from guys like Hardy and Estrada and Jenkins, but they have not gotten anything from Bill Hall, and Ryan Braun is just around the corner.

Whether or not their bullpen is overachieving is moot. Bullpen pitchers are not predictable. The stars could be aligning for them the way they aligned for the Cardinals in 2004.

And while Suppan, Capuano and Vargas won't continue pitching like world beaters, if they remain in the 105-110 ERA+ range, that's going to be enough to offset any injury to Ben Sheets.

Write them off if you will, but I see a team with young stars like Hardy, Weeks, Fielder and Hall that is complemented with adequate players and anchored by a solid rotation. They sure look like 88 wins to me.

[Cronos]

I'm not sold on the Brewers yet, either, especially if Ben Sheets' injury ends up being a serious one(they say it isn't right now, though, and he's still supposed to start tonight). They're hot right now. That doesn't translate into "for real" just yet when they have years and years of suckitude to overcome. I remember another team from last year that won not only 16 but 17 games in April, and they almost missed the playoffs. Suppan won't stay with a sub 3.00 ERA forever, so can the Brewers win with basically two pitchers(Sheets, if they have him, and Capuano)? Maybe. But let's not crown their a__ yet.

[JL21]

Depending on the definition of "sold", I'm sold on the Brewers. Meaning that I don't think they're going to continue to have the best/one of the best records in the NL, but I think they'll contend all year.

Hardy.... folks, I've been telling you about Hardy for almost 2 years now. The kid's the real deal. He's a highly-talented kid who's been fighting injuries for a few years now.

[Hungary Jack]

IMO, right now the underachieving Cards are the third best team in the Central.

The Brewers are 16-9, but their Pythagorean record is 13-12. They have been winning some close games, which attests to their bullpen. If Sheets stays healthy, Capuano continues his performance, and Soup is Soup, then the Brewers have the best rotation in the Central. Their lineup is decent, but their best hitters are young guys who might be prone to slumps during the dog days. I also think their defense might betray them.

The Cubs are almost the reverse of the Brewers: a 10-14 record with a Pythagorean projection of 14-10. I think they have the best roster in the Central, and the only serious weakness in the lineup is the lack of a leadoff hitter. If they're smart, they'll keep Pie in center to cover weak defense in the corners, bat Matt Murton second, and use Izturis mostly at SS.

The Astros really don't have much after Berkman and Oswalt.

I am envious of the Pirates' young rotation, Snell and Gorzy in particular. It's still not enough to compensate for a weak lineup.

The Reds are horrible. Those trades with the Nats made them worse.

[Cronos]

IMO, right now the underachieving Cards are the third best team in the Central.

The Brewers are 16-9, but their Pythagorean record is 13-12. They have been winning some close games, which attests to their bullpen. If Sheets stays healthy, Capuano continues his performance, and Soup is Soup, then the Brewers have the best rotation in the Central. Their lineup is decent, but their best hitters are young guys who might be prone to slumps during the dog days. I also think their defense might betray them.

The Cubs are almost the reverse of the Brewers: a 10-14 record with a Pythagorean projection of 14-10. I think they have the best roster in the Central, and the only serious weakness in the lineup is the lack of a leadoff hitter. If they're smart, they'll keep Pie in center to cover weak defense in the corners, bat Matt Murton second, and use Izturis mostly at SS.

The Astros really don't have much after Berkman and Oswalt.

I am envious of the Pirates' young rotation, Snell and Gorzy in particular. It's still not enough to compensate for a weak lineup.

The Reds are horrible. Those trades with the Nats made them worse.

I agree with your thoughts on pretty much every team, and from the beginning of the year, figured the scrum in the central to be between the Brewers, Cubs, and Cards. Hopefully it won't end in that order, but I can see that it might considering what's happened with both the talent level and struggles of the team and 32.

I might order the bottom 3 teams in the same way you did here(whether intentional or not), but I might switch the Astros and Pirates. Gorzelanny and Snell are already pretty darn good and are only going to get better, and if Duke can get his head out of his butt and Maholm improve, that's a stacked rotation for years to come; all they'd need is a lineup, even a decent lineup, and a closer.

The Astros and Reds are just not that good; the Reds will probably finish in last place IMO.

[Popeye_Card]

2. What happened to David Wright

It's a good thing Wright has improved his walk rate from 9% to 15% because otherwise he would be extremely worthless right now. He has just five extra base hits, and before anyone thinks it's just a run of bad luck and this will go away, he only had six home runs in the second half of last season and went from 'elite' to 'very good.' He has one home run in his last 44 home games. It doesn't really make sense why he's suddenly turned into Aaron Miles with a nifty 16 walks in one month. I have no predictive models that can take a guess that Wright will improve, but a quick check at his BABIP shows that he's at .349!

Well, he'll turn a corner, but a lot of folks thought he was playing a bit over his head during his first couple of years in the majors. He's better than he is now, but he's probably going to settle out as a 120-130 OPS+ hitter.

--P--

[haltz]

I think the gambler's fallacy point is a good one. Many people thought this division would come down to Chicago, St. Louis and Milwaukee, and variations of that sentiment. Regardless of whether or not the Brewers fall back to earth a little (they should) and the Cardinals and Cubs climb out of the cellar to whatever extent (they should), you're still left with a Milwaukee team that many thought would be good enough to win the division spotted 5.5 games after a month of play.

Still a lot of baseball to be played and all of that, but just because they might not be this good doesn't mean they aren't still good enough.

[Hungary Jack]

No one team stands out. I think it might boil down to if the Brewers' pitching (rotation and pen) will be enough to overcome the Cubs' lineup (my guess is probably so), and if the Cards can be just good enough in all three areas (pitching, offense, defense) to squeeze by the other two.

This could make the trade deadline very interesting.

[JL21]

This could make the trade deadline very interesting.

Which raises a strange question I've had boiling in me since yesterday.... In 2002, after DK passed, Walt made a huge push to upgrade the club, acquiring first Chuck Finley and then Scott Rolen. Do you suppose it'll happen again?