jim wrote:Navarro caught 5 of 28 attempted runners last year.
That's the most important piece of info for me.
I would think just about all of those were real steals, and not starting the runner early. Kozma wasn't trying to steal the base. His job is to locate the ball as its being received by the catcher. Therefore, the Navarro stat is not really relevant to this particular discussion.
Do you know how many guys steal bases on a straight hit and run? If you think it's an auto out then I could understand that influencing your thinking, but it's not - by a long shot. Guys steal the base all the time on a hit and run where the hitter doesn't make contact.
Would you just can the hit and run play in it's entirety then? Because if you don't do it in that situation today I can't imagine when you would be comfortable doing it.
btw - managers often will use a H+R with a guy slumping.
jim wrote:Navarro caught 5 of 28 attempted runners last year.
That's the most important piece of info for me.
I would think just about all of those were real steals, and not starting the runner early. Kozma wasn't trying to steal the base. His job is to locate the ball as its being received by the catcher. Therefore, the Navarro stat is not really relevant to this particular discussion.
Do you know how many guys steal bases on a straight hit and run? If you think it's an auto out then I could understand that influencing your thinking, but it's not - by a long shot. Guys steal the base all the time on a hit and run where the hitter doesn't make contact.
Would you just can the hit and run play in it's entirety then? Because if you don't do it in that situation today I can't imagine when you would be comfortable doing it.
btw - managers often will use a H+R with a guy slumping.
Yes, I would. High risk, low reward.
And using the hit and run to get a guy out of a slump makes no sense to me. Yeah, the SS or 2nd baseman is moving and is not playing his normal spot, which might increase the chances of a hit, but a batter is forced to swing at pitches potentially out of the zone to protect the runner. So the solution to getting a guy out of his slump is to have him swing at potentially bad pitches???????
i think sending the runner on a 3-2 count has a psychological effect on the batter and makes him expand his zone. the last thing he wants to do is take a 3rd strike and have the runner get caught stealing, so the batter will swing at anything.
i have no proof to back this up but i would guess the walk rate on a 3-2 count with the runner stealing is much worse than when the runner stays put, and i'm guessing the strike out rate is much higher.
maybe i am wrong, i just have visions of pujols swinging at crap in the dirt when a runner would be going on a 3-2 count.
Secret Weapon wrote:i think sending the runner on a 3-2 count has a psychological effect on the batter and makes him expand his zone. the last thing he wants to do is take a 3rd strike and have the runner get caught stealing, so the batter will swing at anything.
i have no proof to back this up but i would guess the walk rate on a 3-2 count with the runner stealing is much worse than when the runner stays put, and i'm guessing the strike out rate is much higher.
maybe i am wrong, i just have visions of pujols swinging at crap in the dirt when a runner would be going on a 3-2 count.
My first inclination was to say that you're probably wrong.
But I actually think you're right. If I was a batter, and I knew that taking a 3rd strike resulted in a highly probable DP, I probably do expand my zone a bit.
The idea of busting a slump with the hit and run is to clear his head and make it simple... He is going to swing period. Also there is a bigger hole, and If you do just ground out it's still a productive at bat and something to hang your hat on and build. Definitely a mental trick.
As far as expanding the zone I'd bet a case of beer That's not the case.
OK, so If u think the hit and run is not a viable tactic ever then doing it on 32 isn't much better. Disagree completely with you though but No sense arguing that.
This reminds me of one of my all time favorite/weirdest plays.
Coincidentally, it was a Cubs/Cards game a couple years ago. I don't remember the exact scenario, but Cubs were batting, full count, guy on 1st. They send the runner on what was a close ball 4. Molina guns it down to 2nd and the runner, thinking it's a K, beats the throw - which in hindsight was unnecessary - and in the process overslides 2nd. The tag is kept on and the runner is called out because he was awarded 2nd, touched 2nd and left 2nd. Out.
Ron Santo (god bless his soul): OHHHHHHHHHH!!!! NOOO!!!! WHY DO THESE THINGS ALWAYS HAPPEN TO US!?!?!?!?
Worth noting is that when Villanueva has been on the mound this year, 4 runners have been CS and only 2 have succeeded (3:2 before the Kozma/Descalso play.) In 2012, 5 were caught and 6 were successful stealing off of him. Tough pitcher to run on the last couple years, probably does a good job holding runners and being quick to the plate--I couldn't say from watching him this year because I'm usually blinded by the glory of his mustache.
Navarro caught 1 runner out of 6 last year. Not sure where 5/28 came from. Career, he's thrown out 30% of would-be base-stealers against a league average in his career of 27%.
