A Message Board Dedicated to Discussing St. Louis Cardinals Baseball!
https://gatewayredbirds.com/forum/
Not to mention the overall mediocrity of this year's free agent crop, and the fact that the teams that are buyers have so far been trying to figure out what they can extract from the corpse of the Marlins.Tim wrote:That is my guess.go birds wrote:everyone is keeping their powder dry for next year. All the big dogs have serious luxury tax concerns and the smaller players are living in the statcast era.
its really that simple.
Dave Cameron, now an employee of the San Diego Padres with a vested interest in saving them money, you mean?Transmogrified Tiger wrote:The slow offseason can be a result of the labor environment that the owners are responsible for, and also not be collusion. The first offseason with a luxury tax that has a really strong bite, combined with a weak class this year and a very strong class next year create these conditions. Dave Cameron also has an article(apologies if it was discussed elsewhere) that basically says because most of the divisional races look already decided, there's less motivation for tweener teams to go for it and less incentives for top teams to add more: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/maybe-s ... ff-season/
2002-2017 front offices invest in proprietary predictive models, (sort of) leveling the playing field of player evalsFamous Mortimer wrote:Whether it's legal-definition collusion or not doesn't change that it's a heck of a coincidence all the front offices suddenly got smart at the same time.
Good post.Hoot45 wrote:2002-2017 front offices invest in proprietary predictive models, (sort of) leveling the playing field of player evalsFamous Mortimer wrote:Whether it's legal-definition collusion or not doesn't change that it's a heck of a coincidence all the front offices suddenly got smart at the same time.
2017 a second consecutive "tanking strategy" franchise wins a World Series
2017 over 2/3 of clubs not predicted not to be competitive enough to warrant big spending
2017 Miami Marlins fire sale sends key talent through trade system
2017 new luxury tax implications
2017 weak free agent class
2017 "happy-to-wait" Boras-heavy free agent class
2018 historic free agent class
Or, collusion.
Yes, Dave Cameron has been a sleeper agent for owners finally coming home after years of deliberate poisoning of public opinion against players. Come on.Famous Mortimer wrote:Dave Cameron, now an employee of the San Diego Padres with a vested interest in saving them money, you mean?Transmogrified Tiger wrote:The slow offseason can be a result of the labor environment that the owners are responsible for, and also not be collusion. The first offseason with a luxury tax that has a really strong bite, combined with a weak class this year and a very strong class next year create these conditions. Dave Cameron also has an article(apologies if it was discussed elsewhere) that basically says because most of the divisional races look already decided, there's less motivation for tweener teams to go for it and less incentives for top teams to add more: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/maybe-s ... ff-season/
Whether it's legal-definition collusion or not doesn't change that it's a heck of a coincidence all the front offices suddenly got smart at the same time.
All of these thoughts are worth exploring, but the collusion is hard to see -- at least as a premeditated, organized thing. Now as far as groupthink? Oh yeah. This is what happens when every team is run like a hedge fund with algorithms making the calls. What we're seeing is the outgrowth of Moneyball and all of the advances teams like Oakland, the Cardinals, the Astros, and advanced teams have made through the years. Remember all that time we've talked about the game catching up to the Cardinals. Here we are. Don't you hear the echo? Teams want shorter contracts, willing to pay more per year to get them. Sound familiar? Teams feel reluctant to pay deep into the 30s. Teams don't want to commit long contracts to positions that are volatile like pitching. Teams want to hold onto young controllable talent. Teams would rather go with their internal options than pay for free agent prices. Teams are looking for value, not just production. Where have we heard all of this before for 10 years? It all sounds so so familiar.
Oh right.
Math is universal, and if all teams are starting to value players the same way and only making data-driven decisions and not breaking from their equations, then this is what you get. Stalemate.
by Derrick Goold 3:52 PM
I am curious if you have heard any mutterings about collusion with the glacial free agent market. I am not accusing the front office by asking, but there seems to be a limit on at least years, and I am curious if you think that's purely market determined.
To push it a bit further, I'm curious what your thoughts are on the disparity between payrolls and the money flowing in to major league baseball. I'm not certain of this, but it seems that while the money in the game is increasing, the payrolls are not (per a quick search, the average increase in payrolls from 06 - 15 was 57%, but that includes the Marlins going from 15 million to 84 million and the Yankees, Mets, and Braves actually decreasing in that time). Is this evidence of the weakness in the union? Or is it the result of the commodity mindset taking hold in the game? It seems a bit problematic to see (and contribute) so much money to the game while the players are taking in less and less of it.
by cardsfaninpitt 3:48 PM