JJ Wetherholt named top 3 prospect in MLB by Baseball America

[Richie Allen]

I'm hoping he's the next George Brett.

[WAR God]

Looking through his MiLB stats and videos of his approach + fielding skills.

So much of his value is tied to his high OBP, which should translate to MLB. It raises his floor a lot, the ceiling surprisingly not tho. The lack of HR power in the minors is troubling. you want to see more consistent damage on mistakes.

I think the early MLB tell will be his pulled extra base hits on fastballs in early counts. That’s where pitchers will test him. If he can’t match it, the power ceiling likely caps him as more of a good, not great bat. The high SB conversions are interesting, but he appears to be more a heady opportunist than a speed guy. The frequent lower body injuries also factors there long term.

I don’t trust fielding evaluations anymore. Too many players in my experience have defied their minor league profile (for better or worse). I just know he won’t be a SS in St. Louis. Gorman is a natural 3B. Wetherholt likely a 2B. What if he’s a stud there? Does it add another win to his WAR? Or he is unplayable because of the frequent hammy, and becomes a high OBP DH? We won’t know for a while.

Best case scenario (pretty unlikely but we can hope):

OBP holds, Cardinals development labs find real MLB power, at least average 2B defense. WAR ~4–6 in peak seasons, 3-4 in a normal season.

Average case scenario (most likely):

OBP mostly holds, power is meh, defense is average-ish at 2B/utility INF. WAR ~2–3.5. Can peak at 4-ish if he stays in the field and healthy.

Disappointing case scenario (second most likely):

OBP is still good but MLB pitchers knock the bat out of his hands. defense ends up below average. He puts on strength/size to produce power, but saps his mobility even more. WAR is ~0–2.

[Popeye_Card]

They make a realistic expectation sound like a slightly better Brendan Donovan.

Which is good I guess, but hardly a franchise savior.

[WAR God]

They make a realistic expectation sound like a slightly better Brendan Donovan.

Which is good I guess, but hardly a franchise savior.

It would be an above average cost-controlled middle infield through 2029 I guess.

Bloom better get to work elsewhere.

[phins]

They make a realistic expectation sound like a slightly better Brendan Donovan.

Which is good I guess, but hardly a franchise savior.

A better Brendan Donovan is an All-Star, to be fair.

We all want the 5-WAR player, but they are unicorns. They're almost impossible to get.

It stinks when we see rivals find them, develop them etc. but they're .05% prospects.

[Popeye_Card]

I get that, however it just doesn’t seem very transformative as a team to let players like Donovan go, when the best prospect in your system is going to be roughly the same player. Sure, hopefully you get a good prospect or two in the return, but you are also losing a player of Donovan’s ability.

I don’t know. Just seems like paddling in a circle.

[phins]

I get that, however it just doesn’t seem very transformative as a team to let players like Donovan go, when the best prospect in your system is going to be roughly the same player. Sure, hopefully you get a good prospect or two in the return, but you are also losing a player of Donovan’s ability.

I don’t know. Just seems like paddling in a circle.

You're aligning prospect expected arrivals at a time on your win curve when you can win.

Seriously, what benefit do the Cardinals get from having Donovan on their team this year? They are going to be bad. I think we all need to embrace that for our sanity. Having Donovan, but in three years and under control for seven is the outcome you're looking for here.

[ghostrunner]

It’s interesting to see people’s assumptions about which base JJ will go to. I’ve assumed 2nd and Gorman at 3rd, but some people seem convinced it’ll be the other way.

[cardsfantx]

It’s interesting to see people’s assumptions about which base JJ will go to. I’ve assumed 2nd and Gorman at 3rd, but some people seem convinced it’ll be the other way.

It very well could be

They did get him some games at 3b last year and I just assumed it was to replace Arenado eventually. But with 2b now opened up, it could go either way

We’ve seen Gorman play 3b and he’s had some struggles.

JJ absolutely can handle SS, so no reason he can’t handle 3b

[ghostrunner]

I just figured being faster/more athletic they’d want him up the middle, and if stuff’s gonna get by Gorman they’d rather it be over there.