GatewayRedbirds.com

.300/360/.575, 21 HRs

That Duncan feller just might be decent some day.

Ok, I didn't want to "go there" with you, but you leave me no choice...you said Ecks FEILDING!!!!! would be the downfall of the 05 team, which you were supremely WRONG (as shown by the amount of the record setting DP's we had that year with Grudz), and the offence was your icing on the cake in your argument. We debated over and over about his DEFENSIVE liabilities with a GB pitching staff was going to hamper our ability to win 90 games in 2005. I'm trying to be civil here, but your selective memory is driving me to "out you" as to what you are here...Your ability to use your numbers to change the subject on which was more precient on the particular topic of that period are driving me to be less than respectful of your analysis. You simply cannot change the argument (Eck) of what was your opinion of what his defence would cost the Cards than his offense, (which is similar to last year, btw) albeit different with a MUCH worse 7,8,9...2 hitter(pre-Dunc emergence) than in 2005. Your attempt to use Eck as the scapegoat to vindicate your opinion of him in a totally differently composed 05 squad and to finally be vilified in your opinion of Eckstein(in your mind alone), which was not as much offensively related as DEFENSIVELY related cannot save your opinions of such as we look for a scapegoat of YOUR choosing (again a perfect example of how to use statistics to cloud reasonable jugement on the matter of who to use as a scapegoat) in this campaign. You can't let go of the argument you lost a year ago on Eckstein and have tried to remind me of every deficiency that has occured with him since your flawed opinion of a year ago. He's producing about the same as he has since he came here...I'm on the bandwagon to use him in the 8 spot now that we have Belliard and have stated that on numerous threads elsewhere. You can't have 4, punch-N-judy hitters lined up in a row and win. With Dunc in the 2 hole and Belliard in the 7 spot (ala Reggie Sanders) you dont have the letdown in offence we had in a sustained period that we had earlier in the year. Add Wilson in on lefty starts and we have continued to make incremental strides to making this team better as an offensive threat through a larger part of the lineup. I was willing to back down on our dissenting opinions with Rent-A-Ria, Eck and the like at CT if you woulda shown some sort of apoligist statements that I tried to make after my last drunken tirade...no more, the gloves are off for the self annointed "keeper of mysteries unseen to others thru statistics egomaniac" that is in your own little world. I now defy you to post a correct opinion that has not been shot down in every level of discussion...INCLUDING Rent-A-ria which you DID NOT conclude his numbers during the year before his hot streak at the end, which was still not enuf to let the REDSOX, YOUR REAL TEAM, to sign him to play there again...was it because Epstein was trying to negotiate his own contract...
You, my freind, are liken to the snake that rides on the alligator across the river and promises not to bite him if he successfully transports him across the river...after doing so the snake bites the alligator which upon dying breath says, I thought we had a deal, to which the snake says...sorry, I'm a snake

and thusly we arrive at the "holes" in the swing of Duncan...is he for real, maybe, but not as good as his hot streak...will you lose this wager?...thanks for playing...AGAIN

skmsw wrote:

Out of curiousity...what do you think of the fact that Eck is on roughly the same run scoring pace as last year, in front of essentially the same OPS production from the #2 and #3 slots, but with an OPS that's 80 points lower (with both the OBP and SLG having decreased...although, the SLG much more)? That seems to fly in the face of much of the numerical work that has been done on the subject...

Again, I'm not sure it is as complicated as we're making it:

Eck 4/1 thru 5/31:
.330 .402 .392 = .794
10 extra base hits and 4 SB in 209 AB
34 runs in 52 games, a pace of 101 for the year

Eck 6/1 thru 8/20:
.257 .304 .280 = .584
6 extra base hits and 3 SB in 268 AB
31 runs in 63 games, a pace of 76 for the year

So, his OPS does seem to correlate with his runs scored.

But also -- can you guess which of those stretches above saw AP average 12 homers per month and 1.2 RBI per game, and which stretch saw him average 6.5 homers per month and 0.51 RBI per game??? That factor seems fairly significant to Eck's pattern too . . . When AP hit 25 homers in two months, Eck could potentially score every time he got on base, from wherever he was -- which is why his OPS of 794 was enough to have him scoring at a pace of over 100 runs, when a similar OPS last year was only enough to score ~90.

I glanced at the two month splits from last year and they seem to back that up at least marginally.

4/5-5/31: .378/.393/.771 89.6 R/162
6/1-6/30: .316/.311/.627 84.0 R/162
8/1-9/30: .398/.480/.878 108.9 R/162

Not as much of a dropoff in production from the marginal OPS to the terrible OPS as there is for this year, though (I checked Pujols...his numbers were fairly consistent from month to month last year all the way through).

I did notice the that from 4/5-4/30 Eckstein put up a .367/.312/.678 line and scored on pace for 65 R/162. From 6/1-6/30 he put up an almost identical .368/.316/.685 and scored on pace for 117 R/162. During those two months Pujols hit (HR/XBH/OPS) 6/14/1.007 and 8/12/1.117 respectively...nothing extreme enough to account for that.

If production can vary that wildly for almost identical OPSs over one month sample sizes, then I'm not sure how much significance we can assign to any random two/three month samples of OPS/RS data since 40 and 80 games aren't really much more significant that 20 to 30 games are. It's just too short a timeframe...we can't be sure we have enough data that the impact of outliers is minimized. We have a 55 game sample on the main topic of this very thread, no less, and a great discussion on how much weight that will really carry moving forward. If the majority of Eck's months he put up a terrible OPS, then the smaller sample sizes would carry more weight...but he's put up an OPS of over .790 in 5 of his 11 months as a Cardinal (playoffs excepting). Four of those 11 he put up an OPS of .660 or below (and three of those have been the last three months). We can't be anymore sure if what we're seeing now is the "real" Eckstein than what we saw from him earlier...especially given that his OBP and SLG levels these last few months are well below even his career norms (40 and 100 points respectively). Concussion related? We don't know.

Over the long haul, I agree that OPS does impact runs scored. With all other things being equal, the hitter who gets on base more and hits for more power is going to score more. I was just curious what your take was on that little oddity that I shared earlier. Thanks for sharing.

I'm also hoping that this injury to Eckstein turns out to be a blessing in disguise. He hasn't had a period of suckage this extended in a long time...maybe the break will do him good. He was a beast down the stretch last year.

as usual, great post Easton, you are already one of my favorite posters to watch for ANY comments and usually add helpful statistics to guide through your fan objectives of Cards BB...thanks

Question to all minor league experts. Is there any player who completely stinked in minor leagues and thrived in major leagues?

dillagii wrote:Question to all minor league experts. Is there any player who completely stinked in minor leagues and thrived in major leagues?

Generally, players don't even get a shot at the majors if they completely stink in the minors...so, almost by definition one could say no.

Maybe some numbers would help the researchers? Like...below _____ OPS in AA and AAA, or above ______ ERA and this ______ WHIP at the same levels, only to go on to the MLB and become a consistent _____ OPS hitter or pitcher of such and such quality. If you're having trouble coming up with numbers...pick a percentile (bottom 25%, top 10%) and someone can probably find out the numbers for you based on the league numbers for those years.

Well, Jim Edmonds got on base at a great clip, but his career MiLB slugging was .440. It's possible that Duncan could be a Len Latebloom.

dillagii wrote:Question to all minor league experts. Is there any player who completely stinked in minor leagues and thrived in major leagues?

Very very rarely do you see players that were poor minor leaguers become good major leaguers. You will see some players outproduce their minor league numbers, but generally minor league performance when put in the right context is a very good predictor of major league performance.

dillagii wrote:Question to all minor league experts. Is there any player who completely stinked in minor leagues and thrived in major leagues?

Definition of thrived...? Luna stunk in minors and has been pretty good in majors...