Marcell Ozuna Watch - (Update: Traded to Cards Pg. 13)

[dmarx114]

This is why i wanted to drain out pitching prospect pool for guys like yelich and machado. ozuna will be a decent bat here for 2 years then bone out.

Then we will be back at square one

Well, Machado is only signed for one more year.

[go birds]

This is why i wanted to drain out pitching prospect pool for guys like yelich and machado. ozuna will be a decent bat here for 2 years then bone out.

Then we will be back at square one

Well, Machado is only signed for one more year.

[cardsfantx]

spm
12:28
In your opinion, was Ozuna's year a breakout or an anomaly?

Dave Cameron
12:28
More the latter.
12:29
I think he's a nice hitter, not a great one.

that's my line of thinking as well, which i hope is why the pieces we send aren't too great/over the top.

his bad years he's had are BAAAAD...and the good ones (up until 2017 obv) were basically piscotty

Bad years? He's had 1 bad year out of 4.

When did Piscotty have a 4.5 bWAR? Ozuna did that in his second year.

Ozuna has played 4 full seasons (First year he played 70 games)

He's hit 23 HRs at least every year, and has a WAR of 4.5, 0.4, 2.5, 5.8

Piscotty has had 2 full years, his best year he hit 22 HRs and had a WAR of 2.9.

Which would be Ozuna's 3rd best year, by a mile. So, I don't see how they're similar or really close.

oh good....WAR again

edit:

we're not needing a WAR guy...we're needing a counting stats guy (HRs/OPS in particular..his WAR is higher cause he's a very good defender)

in 2014 his OPS was 772; in 2016 his OPS was 773 (in 2013 in 275 ABs his OPS was 692; in 2015 his OPS was 691)

even in his crappy year last year, piscotty's OPS was 709...in 2016 his OPS was 800

in other words, ozuna has NEVER had an OPS in ANY year higher than piscotty, other than last year (2017)

hope he's maturing/hitting his prime...or could just be an outlier

[Big Amoco Sign]

Ozuna is legit. Not as good as GRB makes him out to be. But he's an upgrade.

BABIP was .355 last year. That's coming down significantly to his norms soon. Walk rate isn't super impressive for a 3-4 hitter but I will take his good slugging.

He's going to be a ~119 wRC+ guy. We need more of those than not. Let's hope his LF defense improves a little too. Good guy for two years and ditch and get a real FA.

[misterManager]

This is why i wanted to drain out pitching prospect pool for guys like yelich and machado. ozuna will be a decent bat here for 2 years then bone out.

Then we will be back at square one

Yelich I can see after discussions in the Stanton thread.

But why would you pay like 2x the price for Machado for half the control and the same profile of uncertainty? Both Machado and Donaldson are coming off the kind of near-disaster year we are prognosticating on with Ozuna's lost campaign a couple seasons back. In Donaldson's case it was probably 100% injury that kept him down, but Machdo was not a good hitter for the first half last year. Ozuna at least has two years to try to prove last year to not be a fluke. In a vacuum I see your point, but if the rumors of the O's asks from Philly are true, you could say goodbye to Reyes as well as everyone slated to go to Miami for Ozuna.

[dmarx114]

This is why i wanted to drain out pitching prospect pool for guys like yelich and machado. ozuna will be a decent bat here for 2 years then bone out.

Then we will be back at square one

Well, Machado is only signed for one more year.

Seems like a good way to increase the chances of finishing 70-92 for the next decade.

[Magneto2.0]

spm
12:28
In your opinion, was Ozuna's year a breakout or an anomaly?

Dave Cameron
12:28
More the latter.
12:29
I think he's a nice hitter, not a great one.

that's my line of thinking as well, which i hope is why the pieces we send aren't too great/over the top.

his bad years he's had are BAAAAD...and the good ones (up until 2017 obv) were basically piscotty

Bad years? He's had 1 bad year out of 4.

When did Piscotty have a 4.5 bWAR? Ozuna did that in his second year.

Ozuna has played 4 full seasons (First year he played 70 games)

He's hit 23 HRs at least every year, and has a WAR of 4.5, 0.4, 2.5, 5.8

Piscotty has had 2 full years, his best year he hit 22 HRs and had a WAR of 2.9.

Which would be Ozuna's 3rd best year, by a mile. So, I don't see how they're similar or really close.

oh good....WAR again

I'm not the biggest WAR guy, just using it as an example. But Piscotty isn't Ozuna's equal at all. Ozuna hits for more power and just is a better overall hitter period.

He's not Stanton by any means, but as soon as we get him he's probably our best everyday player.

[Fat Strat]

I'm not even seeing a .4 for Ozuna at Fangraphs. In '15 he had his lowest PA total and still scrapped out a 1.2 fWAR (Fangraphs WAR) in just 494 PA's. That season Ozuna was shipped to AAA to keep him from getting the PA's he needed to get to arbitration on schedule. That move by Miami bought a year of his service time, which we now get (assuming a deal is done).

After his recall, he hit this in the rest of '15 -.278/.320/.469
This is '16 - .266/.321/.452
And we know '17 - .312/.376/.548

All in one of the worst offensive parks in the game. Conservative predictions for him say he'll hit .288/.352/.509 in '18 as a Marlin. Bump that up a little as a Cardinal.

Overall though I agree with Cameron in my now extensive analysis -- he's not a great hitter, like Donaldson or Stanton or Trout. He is, though, a very good hitter and is likely to remain so. Think more along the lines of Justin Upton or Ryan Zimmerman. Those guys are very comparable to him in his peaks and valleys.

[go birds]

This is why i wanted to drain out pitching prospect pool for guys like yelich and machado. ozuna will be a decent bat here for 2 years then bone out.

Then we will be back at square one

Well, Machado is only signed for one more year.

Seems like a good way to increase the chances of finishing 70-92 for the next decade.

interesting

[cardsfantx]

spm
12:28
In your opinion, was Ozuna's year a breakout or an anomaly?

Dave Cameron
12:28
More the latter.
12:29
I think he's a nice hitter, not a great one.

that's my line of thinking as well, which i hope is why the pieces we send aren't too great/over the top.

his bad years he's had are BAAAAD...and the good ones (up until 2017 obv) were basically piscotty

Bad years? He's had 1 bad year out of 4.

When did Piscotty have a 4.5 bWAR? Ozuna did that in his second year.

Ozuna has played 4 full seasons (First year he played 70 games)

He's hit 23 HRs at least every year, and has a WAR of 4.5, 0.4, 2.5, 5.8

Piscotty has had 2 full years, his best year he hit 22 HRs and had a WAR of 2.9.

Which would be Ozuna's 3rd best year, by a mile. So, I don't see how they're similar or really close.

oh good....WAR again

I'm not the biggest WAR guy, just using it as an example. But Piscotty isn't Ozuna's equal at all. Ozuna hits for more power and just is a better overall hitter period.

He's not Stanton by any means, but as soon as we get him he's probably our best everyday player.

sorry, i added/edited the other post too late...

we're not needing a WAR guy...we're needing a counting stats guy (HRs/OPS in particular..his WAR is higher cause he's a very good defender)

in 2014 his OPS was 772; in 2016 his OPS was 773 (in 2013 in 275 ABs his OPS was 692; in 2015 his OPS was 691)

even in his crappy year last year, piscotty's OPS was 709...in 2016 his OPS was 800

in other words, ozuna has NEVER had an OPS in ANY year higher than piscotty, other than last year (2017)

hope he's maturing/hitting his prime...or could just be an outlier