Illinois

[jim]

To your point about research and hunches, I don't have a clue what to research but I was with some friends over at Fairmount nearly a decade ago and one of the girls gave me some tips on picking winners right before the race by looking at the horses as they came out. Her horse either won or placed at least 80% of the races. She works at the track in some capacity and from time to time I've seen her riding one of the horses that escorts the racers to the gate so she defintily has the experience with thoroughbreds. I'm not as good as she was at picking out the little things (I can't even remember what they all are because it was a long time ago) but it does help.

There is lots to do, number 1 learn to read the past performance sheet. There is no formula, it's black art. But how did the horse run last time out? Was he beaten because he tired, outclassed, or was he boxed in and just never got a chance? If it's the latter, look for those horses because they are the ones that go off at 6-1 and really should be going off as the favorites. When did he run last? Is he moving up or down in class? How about pace - do you have a bunch of really fast horses that are just going to wear each other out which favors the horses referred to as "stalkers"? Turf/dirt, or poly? Does the horse have a preference? Does he run in the slop?

I'll tell you that the one thing I use to start is looking at horses going up or down in class. The horse I recommended above that is off at 20-1 is the only horse in that race dropping class. Notes say he's tired down the stretch his last few races, but if you look at the first two split times you will noticed they are a little faster than most of the other horses - and that makes sense because he was running with faster horses. So now he's dropped down from a 10,000 claim to a 6250, and maybe that first 1/4 mile will be a tick slower and this horse will have something left in the tank to finish out. There are plenty of red flags here - for one he's been scratched twice by the stewards recently and his latest workouts aren't so hot - but at 20-1? Hell yeah, take a shot. These are the bets that carry you.

Betting the favorite to place is a bad idea. You may as well just keep your money in your pocket, you are going to get 2.10 or maybe 2.20? You have to win that 10 out of 11 times just break even. AT LEAST. Remember that fee I talked about that ranges from 18-25% for the track? The other hidden fee that you don't realize is due to rounding. The track rounds down to the nearest dime - so if the favorite to place should have paid $2.19 to place it will pay out at $2.10. That's another 4%. It's called "Breakage", and you want to avoid it. It's one of the reasons why a daily double bet with a 20% house takeout can actually be a better buy than win/place/show bet that has an 18% takeout. A horse (or pair) that should have paid $22.19 and pays $22.10 instead - not so bad.

[jim]

Oh and also about the paddock - yes. Absolutely go and watch the horses in the parade, my wife rides and I've picked up some things about horse behavior from her. Look for it, it matters and it might the most important piece of info you can get. Also if the horse takes a firm crap in the paddock - increase his odds by 10%. If you think he should go off at 5-1, and it's paying out and 9-2, normally you would pass but with the crap I'd probably take that 9-2. If a horse is sweating, or [expletive] liquid, or irritated, or sleepy, ... downgrade appropriately.

[jim]

The odds of horse racing are horrible compared to say craps or black jack or roulette or a fixed boxing match where you've bet on the loser. But, as mentioned, you only bet once every 20 min or so, can only bet on about 10 races, and don't have to pay attention to anything but bull [expletive] for 95% of the time and the other 5% is spent yelling... at horses....to run.

It's more like charity than anything. It's definitely not gambling unless you're a degenerate and pay tons of attention to the ponies or train them and are out there everyday. Then you've got a decent enough chance, but you've got to have a pretty big leg up.

30 minutes between races generally.

Depends on how you enjoy yourself at the track - I find 30 minutes between races only enough time if I've done my homework before I go to the track. It's like baseball, some people think there is all of this dead time and then others say there is so much to think about that you can't possibly process it all in that dead time. I do play the pick 3/4/5/6 sometimes, which those you have to pick horses ahead of time, but to me there is just barely enough time to process everything between races. And even when I'm playing a pick 3 or 4, I often will go to the paddock and look for a stray bet.

But going to the track with friends and slapping down $5 on a horse with a cool name and screaming your ass off while drinking beer is another viable option.

[jim]

Random horse racing story:

In about 2002, I went to the Des Moines horse racing track with a good friend, a waitress I worked with who had no idea about anything, and a Brazilian cook who had never gambled a dime in his life. The 9th race usually has a clear favorite, so I convinced the others to each put in 2 bucks for an 8 dollar trifecta bet. (ie, we picked 1,2,3 in order) Like Lombard said, we were screaming and yelling as the horses came by - the favorite was like 8 lengths ahead, but our third horse was back in the middle. Right at the end, he came on strong, and we won our trifecta. We went bat - [expletive] crazy and were clearly the loudest people in the relatively small crowd. The winner's owner called us down and we got our picture taken with the horse. He asked us how much we won - 71 dollars - and he looked at us like we were nuts. He definitely thought we'd won like a thousand bucks or something.

To this day, it is one of my favorite moments of my life.

That's cool. I was hooked the first time I went - I played a horse to win for $2 and it came from the back down the stretch and won (I think it paid all of about $8) and I freaked.

edit - And in case you are wondering about my 20-1 recommendation above .... he scratched which I told you was a possibility. Need to make glue out of that horse. The horse that won paid $14.20, had a morning line of 6-1, so given that there was one fewer horses in the race and he went off like that it definitely would have peeked my interest at the track. Not saying I would have pulled the trigger, but I would have noticed.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

The odds of horse racing are horrible compared to say craps or black jack or roulette or a fixed boxing match where you've bet on the loser. But, as mentioned, you only bet once every 20 min or so, can only bet on about 10 races, and don't have to pay attention to anything but bull [expletive] for 95% of the time and the other 5% is spent yelling... at horses....to run.

It's more like charity than anything. It's definitely not gambling unless you're a degenerate and pay tons of attention to the ponies or train them and are out there everyday. Then you've got a decent enough chance, but you've got to have a pretty big leg up.

30 minutes between races generally.

Depends on how you enjoy yourself at the track - I find 30 minutes between races only enough time if I've done my homework before I go to the track. It's like baseball, some people think there is all of this dead time and then others say there is so much to think about that you can't possibly process it all in that dead time. I do play the pick 3/4/5/6 sometimes, which those you have to pick horses ahead of time, but to me there is just barely enough time to process everything between races. And even when I'm playing a pick 3 or 4, I often will go to the paddock and look for a stray bet.

But going to the track with friends and slapping down $5 on a horse with a cool name and screaming your ass off while drinking beer is another viable option.

Okay. You look like you've gotten into it, and I haven't in quite some time because as you note, it takes soooooo much time to get involved in a bet where the margins are so small. Obviously a 20-1 bet is going to pay out, handsomely. But, how much are you willing to bet. It's still a crap shoot. Even if that 20-1 should be a 10-1, the odds are not great that he'll win. So how much do you plop down? $10? Sure, but then you've just made, optimistically, $200 for how many hours of work?

I know a co-worker and I a couple years ago when we had a friend who owned a horse really got into it. IIRC, we created spreadsheets with every horses split times for each race. WE'd then look, like you said, at what horses were doing. Were they going up, down, sideways, etc. Who was training them? Who was riding them? Is that a good fit, or is that just a jock needing a ride. This co-worker had a cousin who travels all year and rides the horses during training. We'd get our picks lined up by looking at all the information - which took hours, if not a full day sometimes to collect - then talk to his cousin.

What we found is that a lot of times our picks didn't correspond with his, and when they did, we lost. Sure, we won some as well, but I would imagine we won just slightly above the % of time a random guy would. So....all in all, we hit a few big bets, those 20-1 horses that helped, but we still lost money. We certainly didn't make enough to pay for our time. I guess, looking back on it, we just didn't bet enough on those horses where we felt the line was wrong. But, even then, it's pretty tough to lay $500 or so down 1. without moving the odds and 2. knowing on this particular race, you're not likely to see that money again.

All in all, it's cheaper and more fun, imo, to just go and drink and bull [expletive].

[jim]

I enjoy everything about it, including the time I spend trying to get an edge. I am disciplined, so I don't ever bet more than I can afford to lose, and I'm not at the track everyday or even every week. I follow the results regular like I would box scores during the season, and when I do go to the track I do some homework the day before but that's part of the fun.

I personally do not think it's possible to make money long term, although some claim they have. But when you do your homework, make a selection especially that isn't the favorite, and that horse wins it does feel pretty cool. You just want to say to everyone ripping up their tickets, DUH! It was obvious. Of course when I am ripping up my ticket I'm just befuddled as to who possibly could have picked that race.

Owning a horse would be fun, they had a series called Racehorse ( http://www.arlingtonpark.com/newsvideos ... deo-series) that was entertaining, it followed some of the more low key horse owners - the hobbiest - through a season. One family in fact was from St. Louis but moved the horse up here. One family really got into it - they would bring 40 people in the paddock before the race - and it was kind of touching when their horse got claimed. The thing was like a pet to them, but it was struggling and they kept dropping in class until they dropped down to where the price was right for one of the bigger stables.

It was cool though, and I thought if I ever had a bundle that would be a fun thing to do.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

I am disciplined, so I don't ever bet more than I can afford to lose,

I really enjoyed your post, so don't think I didn't read it, but I want to focus on this part right here....because it's the crux of horse betting, imo.

So, let's say you have $1k which you can afford to lose and gamble away. How do you distribute that? After doing all your research, after doing all your looking and poking and prodding and watching the horses go to and fro, how do you determine how much to bet? You're obviously looking for a good value, which won't be known until minutes before the race, and you're looking for the right mannerisms in the paddock (though I never paid much heed to this) so a lot of decisions are being made hours before. You have to process all that info, then look at the current price, then decide how much to bet. And, likely your not betting on a favorite, just a horse with better chances than his current odds. In other words, you have to bet with the likelihood of th emoney being lost. And, you're doing so not knowing how much better/worse your odds can be on the horse you really like 3 races from now.

But, if you trust yourself, and think you're getting a good deal, you should unload and bet the house. If you aren't that confident, perhaps you are making the wrong bet. This caused a great deal of consternation b/w my buddy and me when making bets. He wanted to go with a flat rate, $20 on any bet, and I wanted to go way more or not at all. I don't know who was right/wrong, but I certainly understand both sides. You have to bet to win, and if you think you have a leg up, you should bet. But, you should also be more confident in certain picks than others and just bet those picks...or bet them more.

[M1IRONMIKE]

I am disciplined, so I don't ever bet more than I can afford to lose,

I really enjoyed your post, so don't think I didn't read it, but I want to focus on this part right here....because it's the crux of horse betting, imo.

So, let's say you have $1k which you can afford to lose and gamble away. How do you distribute that? After doing all your research, after doing all your looking and poking and prodding and watching the horses go to and fro, how do you determine how much to bet? You're obviously looking for a good value, which won't be known until minutes before the race, and you're looking for the right mannerisms in the paddock (though I never paid much heed to this) so a lot of decisions are being made hours before. You have to process all that info, then look at the current price, then decide how much to bet. And, likely your not betting on a favorite, just a horse with better chances than his current odds. In other words, you have to bet with the likelihood of th emoney being lost. And, you're doing so not knowing how much better/worse your odds can be on the horse you really like 3 races from now.

But, if you trust yourself, and think you're getting a good deal, you should unload and bet the house. If you aren't that confident, perhaps you are making the wrong bet. This caused a great deal of consternation b/w my buddy and me when making bets. He wanted to go with a flat rate, $20 on any bet, and I wanted to go way more or not at all. I don't know who was right/wrong, but I certainly understand both sides. You have to bet to win, and if you think you have a leg up, you should bet. But, you should also be more confident in certain picks than others and just bet those picks...or bet them more.

if you like the horses name.....bet big!!!!

[jim]

I am disciplined, so I don't ever bet more than I can afford to lose,

I really enjoyed your post, so don't think I didn't read it, but I want to focus on this part right here....because it's the crux of horse betting, imo.

So, let's say you have $1k which you can afford to lose and gamble away. How do you distribute that? After doing all your research, after doing all your looking and poking and prodding and watching the horses go to and fro, how do you determine how much to bet? You're obviously looking for a good value, which won't be known until minutes before the race, and you're looking for the right mannerisms in the paddock (though I never paid much heed to this) so a lot of decisions are being made hours before. You have to process all that info, then look at the current price, then decide how much to bet. And, likely your not betting on a favorite, just a horse with better chances than his current odds. In other words, you have to bet with the likelihood of th emoney being lost. And, you're doing so not knowing how much better/worse your odds can be on the horse you really like 3 races from now.

But, if you trust yourself, and think you're getting a good deal, you should unload and bet the house. If you aren't that confident, perhaps you are making the wrong bet. This caused a great deal of consternation b/w my buddy and me when making bets. He wanted to go with a flat rate, $20 on any bet, and I wanted to go way more or not at all. I don't know who was right/wrong, but I certainly understand both sides. You have to bet to win, and if you think you have a leg up, you should bet. But, you should also be more confident in certain picks than others and just bet those picks...or bet them more.

It depends on my bankroll for the day, but I do kind of a hybrid. I usually will have 2-3 races that I feel pretty good about, and those are the races where I will go with a $20. I love the $20 bet because it's a decent amount of money to win, and you can get your payout figured out easily by just adding a 0 to the toteboard numbers. Seems like a natural amount to bet.

But I don't like to go to the track and watch a race and not have anything on it, so I'll go play a smaller bet on those - generally $5. So even if I have the worst day imaginable I could play all day for under $100 - 2@20 and 8@5 would be $80. And honestly if I were having that bad of a day I would probably just head home early anyway.

The reason I do this is because I go to the track for fun, and it's not going to be any fun if I lose the entire bankroll on the first race I bet.

I understand your logic and have been burnt by it. I remember in HS we played this poker game called in-between, always at the end of the night and that's where the money was made and lost. You had 2 card dealt out, a low and a high in that order, and you simply bet up to the pot if the next card was between the two. We played where you doubled on match - so if you had a 2-K and you bet $10 and a 2 or K was flipped up, you had to pay $20. I had figured the odds exactly on this, and came to the conclusions that everyone played too much. I think you needed 10 cards between the high and the low because of the double pay, and I was Mr. Smartie pants and making fun of people as they stupid bets. It also occurred to me that if the odds were in your favor, you should bet the most possible to maximize the winnings. So, either bet the pot or don't bet at all. And then it happened - Ace (I called low) and then another Ace which was high with one ace already out of the deck and probably 1/2 the deck. Huge pot, I bet it all, and lose (of course double because of the Ace). This was in college on a baseball trip and I couldn't afford to lose a penny, and I lost more than $100 on one hand when I was on a nickle dime budget. That killed me. In the long haul it was a cheap lesson in theory vs practice, but boy at the time that was a kick.

[stlouie_lipp]

Seems about right.

Less than one in five residents of Illinois and Rhode Island had a positive view of their home state, the worst percentages by a pretty significant margin. In fact, 25 percent of Illinois residents self-described their state as "the worst possible to live in."

http://theconcourse.deadspin.com/which- ... socialflow