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Both Wacha and Lynn had their stuff taken large steps forward which was unexpected.

Lynn really saw a velocity jump, Wacha saw his changeup play up at the big league level.

That's where scouting and projection come into play for sure, but both exceeded expectations because they became better players unexpectedly. Though I will say, my ceiling for Wacha hasn't change at all; he's a #3 starter and a good- not elite- prospect.

AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:Just kind of connecting some dots here....

Wasn't this draft supposedly down on high upside players? From what I had heard/read/understood, which is very little, this wasn't a draft that was full of high upside, sky is the limit type players...the opposite of 2009 from what I understand.

Yes, but I don't think that means it's preferable to make safe picks. There was a lot more upside than Gonzales and Kaminsky on the board when those two picks were made. You want to get as much talent--and thus value--into the farm as possible. Manaea. Ciuffo. Wilson. Williams. Oh man, Devin Williams. When Milwaukee picked him they must have looked around the draft room and said "Devin Williams can't be available. Who forgot to take that magnet off the board?"

33anda3rd wrote: Yes, but I don't think that means it's preferable to make safe picks. There was a lot more upside than Gonzales and Kaminsky on the board when those two picks were made. You want to get as much talent--and thus value--into the farm as possible. Manaea. Ciuffo. Wilson. Williams. Oh man, Devin Williams. When Milwaukee picked him they must have looked around the draft room and said "Devin Williams can't be available. Who forgot to take that magnet off the board?"

For a team like the Cardinals who value (to the point of overvalue) their prospects, they seem to take the safe picks instead of going for the high upside guys.

Yeah, they should switch it up. They're obviously not very good at building a farm system.

lol

The safe picks you also don't get the flaming disasters like when the Padres took Matt Bush over Justin Verlander.

FWIW, the Cardinals said Gonzales was the highest rated player on their board- by a lot.

I would love to be a fly on the wall when the Cardinals rate players.

phins wrote:FWIW, the Cardinals said Gonzales was the highest rated player on their board- by a lot.

I could see it, he's polished, he has a plus or plus plus pitch, he's athletic, he's college and he fills the need of lefties.

phins wrote:Though I will say, my ceiling for Wacha hasn't change at all; he's a #3 starter and a good- not elite- prospect.

This is when I say that the Cardinals overvalue their prospects. They were trying to hype Wacha as the next big thing.