It sorta riles this stat nerd.
The St. Louis Cardinals have the best record in baseball...(snip)...They are doing it, however, without a single qualified hitter batting over .300.
Batting average isn’t the best barometer of hitting success — after all, a single is counted the same as a home run — so that isn’t troublesome but the Cardinals rank fifth in the league for OPS (.716) and weighted on-base average (.312), or wOBA, which combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
I absolutely hate that. Bring up a stat, in this case AVG, only to say in the next sentence that it's not the best thing to cite. Just go with the best thing, Jesus H [expletive] Christ you could save some time and come across as way smarter if you don't go "well there's this....but it doesn't mean anything so..."
Their overall ERA (2.68) is the best in the league, but that too can be misleading because pitchers can’t control everything on the baseball field...(snip)...This season, St. Louis’ team ERA is lower than its 3.28 FIP and 3.55 xFIP, indicating that its pitching is not fully being reflected in his results. In fact, that too is closer to the fourth or fifth best in baseball.
And that’s why they have a record earned more with luck than skill.
Gonna call [expletive] on homeboy here.
1. Pythag is 62 wins, so lucky? Yeah, by ONE GAME.
2. He's asking the reader to suspend disbelief and assume that defense is playing no part in the Cardinals' success. Everything that happens after the ball leaves the pitchers hand is luck. Just plain stupid. They have a defensive legend at C, the best defensive RF in baseball, a solid CF and SS and probably the best fielding pitching staff in baseball. That's part of why their ERA is better than their FIP, not just blind luck.
3. Even if their FIP is worse than their ERA, it's still the best goddamn FIP in baseball so let's go ahead and say that they have a great pitching staff.
Citing Base Runs, ugh, I get it, it's a fancy new toy, but it misses something important. It does not allow for the fact that sequencing your batting order properly can lead to runs and that the manager has some impact there. Think of it like this, you have a team that includes, say, Bryce Harper and Joe Panik. Joe Panik gets on a base a ton. Bryce Harper hits a lot of bombs. So of course you hit Panik in front of Harper, right? That you are smart enough to do that leads to runs. Base Runs assumes that all events happen independent of when they happen, in a vacuum, and makes them all neutral. But you can't do that, because the manager knows his squad and sequences them properly in a lot of cases. Saying Panik scoring on a Harper bomb (or any high-OBP guy hitting in front of a power bat) doesn't count as much is another thing I'll call BS on because the manager in that situation knows that the OBP guy is gonna get on for the power guy to drive him in. Acting like that isn't part of the game and needs neutralized is ignorant.
You can neutralize events for WAR. Harper can't control Panik getting on in front of him. So Harper is just credited for hitting a bomb. But you can't discredit the team scoring two runs on a Harper bomb when the manager knows that hitting Panik ahead of Harper will lead to more runs. I didn't know FanGraphs had a BaseRuns standings board until reading this link above and linking to that page. I think it's kind of blind for them to have it, really disappointed.