2013 NCAA Football Thread

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Missouri needs to beat aTm and for Bama to beat Auburn.

For Mizzou to have a chance at making it to the BCS Nat'l championship game? They'd need that and an OSU or FSU loss. Not to mention a win over Alabama

What are the odds of all that? I don't know. Maybe 3%?

[StL Dan]

Missouri needs to beat aTm and for Bama to beat Auburn.

For Mizzou to have a chance at making it to the BCS Nat'l championship game? They'd need that and an OSU or FSU loss.

Absolutely. The good news on that front is that OSU still plays at Michigan and at Michigan State. FSU is going to crush the Gators and finish undefeated. Missouri may well get a shot at the NC game against FSU if the Tigers beat aTm and an undefeated Alabama team in the SECCG.

[cardsfansince82]

I'm not sure they need an OSU loss. Beating aTm and Alabama would probably give them a higher BCS rating or score or whatever it's called all by itself.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Missouri needs to beat aTm and for Bama to beat Auburn.

For Mizzou to have a chance at making it to the BCS Nat'l championship game? They'd need that and an OSU or FSU loss.

Absolutely. The good news on that front is that OSU still plays at Michigan and at Michigan State. FSU is going to crush the Gators and finish undefeated. Missouri may well get a shot at the NC game against FSU if the Tigers beat aTm and an undefeated Alabama team in the SECCG.

No chance unless OSU loses. I don't even think the computers would put them ahead of an udefeated OSU team. The people polls certainly won't.

[JL21]

Missouri needs to beat aTm and for Bama to beat Auburn.

For Mizzou to have a chance at making it to the BCS Nat'l championship game? They'd need that and an OSU or FSU loss. Not to mention a win over Alabama

What are the odds of all that? I don't know. Maybe 3%?

Yeah, it's very, very long.

Here are the odds for those outcomes. Again, it's a week old but they couldn't have changed much:

-Alabama beats Auburn: 77% (I was wrong about the 70)

-Mizzou beats Texas A&M: 64%

-and then beats 'Bama: it's a little unclear but it's about 21%

AND THEN ONE OF THESE MUST HAPPEN:
-Michigan St. beats Ohio St.: 33%

-OR Florida St. loses to Florida (5%) or the ACC Championship game (7%)

I'm too dumb to do the math to condense all of that down into a single number but it's gotta be miniscule.

[cardsfansince82]

The SEC has won the last however many titles and is widely considered the toughest conference. I would be surprised if a one loss team that wins that conference and ends Alabama's run didn't get a slot in the title game.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Well, one of the 'AND THEN ONE OF THESE MUST HAPPEN' (which should also include Michigan beats OSU) should be first. I don't know what the odds of those happening are, but figure that out. If that happens, I don't think it matters if Alabama beats Auburn. Mizzou has to win out and have one of those 'must happen' scenarios happen.

Mizzou beating aTm (64%) and Bama (likely, 21%) gives a 12.8% chance. But, even given that, osu or fsu has to lose.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

The SEC has won the last however many titles and is widely considered the toughest conference. I would be surprised if a one loss team that wins that conference and ends Alabama's run didn't get a slot in the title game.

I absolutely wouldn't if OSU/FSU are undefeated and Mizzou is the one loss winner. Or auburn for that matter.

[cardsfansince82]

Either of those teams beating Alabama would give them a huge boost in the human polls and the computers. I bet they would get some first place votes and the overall effect might be enough to leapfrog Ohio State. The BCS has selected teams with much worse arguments than Auburn or Mizzou before.

Mizzou would get a double boost in the computers if they beat Bama right after Bama beats Auburn.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Either of those teams beating Alabama would give them a huge boost in the human polls and the computers. I bet they would get some first place votes and the overall effect might be enough to leapfrog Ohio State. The BCS has selected teams with much worse arguments than Auburn or Mizzou before.

Mizzou would get a double boost in the computers if they beat Bama right after Bama beats Auburn.

Isn't the computer output only 1/3 of the selection? The AP and Coaches are the other 2/3?