2013 NCAA Football Thread

[JL21]

If I did the math right, it's 4% for the most likely scenario (Sparty beats OSU along with Mizzou winning out). It's less than 1% for any scenario involving Florida St.

[StL Dan]

OSU still has to play at Michigan and at Michigan State. Maybe they lose one of those two, most likely at MSU.

[JL21]

Here's the link with all the numbers. I hope they update it this week.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-footbal ... -odds-2013

Anyway, OSU has a 77% shot at beating Michigan.

[cardsfansince82]

Either of those teams beating Alabama would give them a huge boost in the human polls and the computers. I bet they would get some first place votes and the overall effect might be enough to leapfrog Ohio State. The BCS has selected teams with much worse arguments than Auburn or Mizzou before.

Mizzou would get a double boost in the computers if they beat Bama right after Bama beats Auburn.

Isn't the computer output only 1/3 of the selection? The AP and Coaches are the other 2/3?

Not sure what the specific formula is, to be honest. But like I said before, I think Mizzou/Auburn would see a big leap in the AP and Coaches polls too. It seems to me that not many people like and/or respect Ohio State and are looking for any reason to keep them out.

[cardsfansince82]

By the way, Vegas has Mizzou at -4.5 and Bama -10.5 this weekend.

[lukethedrifter]

Here's the link with all the numbers. I hope they update it this week.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-footbal ... -odds-2013

Anyway, OSU has a 77% shot at beating Michigan.

Michigan St will be no easy task for the Buckeyes.

What's the history of Michigan/Ohio St when one is a big favorite, I wonder?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Missouri needs to beat aTm and for Bama to beat Auburn.

For Mizzou to have a chance at making it to the BCS Nat'l championship game? They'd need that and an OSU or FSU loss. Not to mention a win over Alabama

What are the odds of all that? I don't know. Maybe 3%?

Yeah, it's very, very long.

Here are the odds for those outcomes. Again, it's a week old but they couldn't have changed much:

-Alabama beats Auburn: 77% (I was wrong about the 70)

-Mizzou beats Texas A&M: 64%

-and then beats 'Bama: it's a little unclear but it's about 21%

AND THEN ONE OF THESE MUST HAPPEN:
-Michigan St. beats Ohio St.: 33%

-OR Florida St. loses to Florida (5%) or the ACC Championship game (7%)

I'm too dumb to do the math to condense all of that down into a single number but it's gotta be miniscule.

It's something like ~7 percent that Mizzou wins out and either Florida State or Ohio State loses a game. I'll take it.

[lukethedrifter]

What's the line going to be if Mizzou plays Bama in Atlanta?

at least a touchdown, right?

[Vidor]

By the way, Vegas has Mizzou at -4.5 and Bama -10.5 this weekend.

10.5 against an Auburn team that is 10-1 and playing at home. That seems like a lot of points.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

What's the line going to be if Mizzou plays Bama in Atlanta?

at least a touchdown, right?

It'll depend on what happens this weekend, obviously. If Mizzou beats up on aTm by 20+ points (Alabama won by 7) and Auburn exposes a glaring weakness in Bama's defense against the spread hurry up style offense (unlikely) and still manages to lose by a late field goal, that'll probably give pause for bookies to set a 10+ point line.

If Mizzou squeaks by aTm and Alabama trounces Auburn and crushes their offensive swagger, you could probably see a 14-17 point line.

I don't know where you can get a line right now, but I'd guess it's around 13.