Carpenter Signed through 2011, op. 2012 (Matthew Leach)

TAZ · Post by **TAZ** » December 4 06, 10:12 pm

Fat Strat wrote:Second, I don't know if this has caught on, but it sets the precedent for a 5 year contract from the Cardinals. Our well documented reluctance to pass out 5 year deals just died a quick death. Even though it's really just a 3 year extension, it's 5 years total, with an option year.

Good points, especially this one. I think the Cards just don't give out 5 years or more unless they find someone worth it. 3 years for a Kennedy or JuanE tells them they're going to be a piece of the puzzle, but distinguishes them between the Rolens and Alberts and Jimmys (and now Carps) of the team.

Fat Strat · Post by **Fat Strat** » December 4 06, 10:30 pm

Leroy wrote:It also lets us explore options right now for starters without wondering if Chris might break the bank in a year or two.

I'm not saying it is a great deal or anything, but at least we know where we are at in case of a long-term deal for someone.

I think this is a great point. I think that we can afford to pay for Schmidt now, knowing that he and Carp would form the foundation of our rotation for the next four years. You fill the rest in with our youngsters, and you stay the hell out of the FA SP market for the next 4 years.

Post by **Michael** » December 4 06, 10:38 pm

Fat Strat wrote:
Leroy wrote:It also lets us explore options right now for starters without wondering if Chris might break the bank in a year or two.

I'm not saying it is a great deal or anything, but at least we know where we are at in case of a long-term deal for someone.
I think this is a great point. I think that we can afford to pay for Schmidt now, knowing that he and Carp would form the foundation of our rotation for the next four years. You fill the rest in with our youngsters, and you stay the hell out of the FA SP market for the next 4 years.

Plus you can now hand out a big contract to a pitcher w\o getting blasted for not taking care of Carp.

Leroy · Post by **Leroy** » December 4 06, 10:40 pm

4,462 posts and my first great point.

Make sure to catch my next one in 8 months or so.

sighyoung · Post by **sighyoung** » December 4 06, 10:42 pm

Leroy wrote:4,462 posts and my first great point.

Make sure to catch my next one in 8 months or so.

That's a lot of posts to ignore until then.

ghostrunner · Post by **ghostrunner** » December 4 06, 11:58 pm

Fat Strat wrote:Our well documented reluctance to pass out 5 year deals just died a quick death.

I don't think so. As long as we don't make it a habit. It's pretty clear to most that there's a good relationship established there and we wouldn't go long on Burnett. We'll see what happens with Schmidt though.

New Pagodi · Post by **New Pagodi** » December 5 06, 5:49 am

One thing that I don’t think has been mentioned (I apologize if it has been) in assessing the risk/reward of the extension is that if the Cardinals wait until next year, not only will the average value be higher, but also Carp will almost certainly be seeking at least 4 more years at that time.

Thus, assuming we have to add on 1 million more to each of the first 3 years and then 1 more guaranteed year at a minimum of 17 million, the savings made by making the extension now are at least 20 million.

Is the risk of assuming Carp remains healthy and productive over the next year worth 20 million? I have no idea. But the Cardinal’s front office seems to think so, and I’m willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.

fulldeck · Post by **fulldeck** » December 5 06, 6:28 am

vinsanity wrote:Is there a NTC?
If his production wanes, and we decide the money is bogging us down why not just trade him?

BW23 wrote:No mention of it, but he'll be a 10-and-5 guy, so it doesn't matter.

Since Rolen has not only a NTC but should also be a 10/5 guy next season, does that mean the Rolen trade ideas can stop?

fulldeck · Post by **fulldeck** » December 5 06, 6:30 am

TAZ wrote:
Fat Strat wrote:Second, I don't know if this has caught on, but it sets the precedent for a 5 year contract from the Cardinals. Our well documented reluctance to pass out 5 year deals just died a quick death. Even though it's really just a 3 year extension, it's 5 years total, with an option year.
Good points, especially this one. I think the Cards just don't give out 5 years or more unless they find someone worth it. 3 years for a Kennedy or JuanE tells them they're going to be a piece of the puzzle, but distinguishes them between the Rolens and Alberts and Jimmys (and now Carps) of the team.

They have already covered this... LINK

Jocketty denied the extension suggested another high-dollar signing was imminent. But Jocketty insisted that the club would not sign any pitcher to a deal that would offer a higher average annual value the next three seasons.

The Cardinals have made a five-year commitment at a time when they have shown reluctance to offer more than three to any free agent starting pitcher, including October's NLCS most valuable player, Jeff Suppan. The Cardinals offered three-year deals to three free agent pitchers: Jason Schmidt, Miguel Batista and Vicente Padilla.

"I think it depends on the individual whether it's a one-, two- or three-year deal," Jocketty said. "I don't think we'd go much beyond that."

Jocketty insisted the club did not plan to go beyond a fourth year to any starter other than Carpenter "at this time."

haltz · Post by **haltz** » December 5 06, 6:46 am

The way that this market is likely accelerating who knows what the going rate for Cy Young winners will be after 2008. Who knows if the market will hyper-inflate or if the trend of 10% or whatever will continue (not to forget normal economic inflation). All I know is that contracts will be more expensive next year than they are now, and more expensive the next year after that.

Look at the money that Barry Zito will likely get this year. I have no doubt that Carp would cost more if he were a free agent this offseason.

So, essentially Walt is paying 2006 prices for Carpenter, in 2009-2011. There's some inherent risk there, but I would challenge anyone to win for a decade with the Cardinal's budget and not take a risk or too like this one.

It's an ok deal if he is a staff ace for two years, a bad deal if he is a staff ace for one year or less, and a remarkable deal if he pitches like a staff ace from 2009-2012. If Carpenter is a commodity, I love Walt's foray into the futures market.

I have a question,

Jocketty denied the extension suggested another high-dollar signing was imminent. But Jocketty insisted that the club would not sign any pitcher to a deal that would offer a higher average annual value the next three seasons.

later in the article Joe Strauss says this,

Jocketty did not offer details of any bid, but it is believed the Cardinals offered Schmidt more than $10 million a year.

Hmm. Wouldn't the most flamboyant estimates put the salary for the next three years at: 2007 - $8.5, 2008 - $10.5, 2009 - $16?

So, at an average annual salary of less than ~$11.5, what shot in hell do they have in landing Schmidt? Isn't Walt just spinning his wheels here? I guess Jocketty thinks that Schmidt is going to take "Padilla Money."