Cardinals sign Dexter Fowler

[go birds]

Nationals/Boston/Cubs gut their farms for players....media: maybe its time we start commending these teams for actually going for it!

Cards sign a player that fits a need for only money...media: what were they thinking? overpay!! not the cardinal way!!!!

[JL21]

I really like this deal. $16.5mil AAV? Even if he just puts up 8-9 WAR over the length of the contract, it's at least market rate when factoring the rise of salaries in the future. Plus, he's done at 35/36 years of age? It's a solid contract.

The AAV is EXACTLY what it should be. The only part that's even troublesome is the 5th year, and... I mean, whatever. Who gives a [expletive].

Although the "factoring rising salaries" thing doesn't really work. You can only judge him based on the market he signed in, which is $8M/WAR. And honestly, I think he's a reasonable bet to hit 10 WAR over 5 years.

[Spider John]

Fowler will wear #25. I guess the team's not worried about retiring McGwire's number when he make the HOF.

[vinsanity]

The AAV is EXACTLY what it should be. The only part that's even troublesome is the 5th year, and... I mean, whatever. Who gives a [expletive].
I think he's a reasonable bet to hit 10 WAR over 5 years.

I'm curious, which part of the fifth year do you find troublesome? That he'll be on the roster getting paid $16MM in 5 years? Because it takes the total value to $80MM?

[zac]

The AAV is EXACTLY what it should be. The only part that's even troublesome is the 5th year, and... I mean, whatever. Who gives a [expletive].
I think he's a reasonable bet to hit 10 WAR over 5 years.

I'm curious, which part of the fifth year do you find troublesome? That he'll be on the roster getting paid $16MM in 5 years? Because it takes the total value to $80MM?

I think the value is there for 3 years then it gets iffy. If you think a player can make a different for those first 3 years swallowing one, or maybe eating some salary in a trade is easy to do. 2+ years of poor value isn't something anyone wants to deal with.

So yeah, if I was a Cardinal fan I would prefer 4 years. But if he demanded a 5 year and it was basically necessary to get it done then you still do it. Barring injuries, Fowler is ta player who could either get you into the playoffs (over the hump) or allow you to do damage once there. It's a really good signing and in this age the money isn't all that bad.

I'm guessing that's where he's coming from.

[Molly]

Fowler is first Cardinal to wear #25 since Big Mac.

'bout time they issued that number to someone!

[Fat Strat]

I think it's exactly like Peralta's deal. We knew that the end of it might be trouble. It is trouble now; we're sort of pretending that he might be productive after a position switch. But, that trouble is countered by the production we got at the beginning. Anyone here think we should not have signed Peralta to his deal way back when? I sure don't.

[vinsanity]

I think it's exactly like Peralta's deal. We knew that the end of it might be trouble. It is trouble now; we're sort of pretending that he might be productive after a position switch. But, that trouble is countered by the production we got at the beginning. Anyone here think we should not have signed Peralta to his deal way back when? I sure don't.

Would you have preferred 4/80 or the current deal, for Fowler?

Unrelated but surprising, using fangraph's numbers, Peralta hasn't earned his contract yet because of last year's below replacement performance.

[haltz]

But, that trouble is countered by the production we got at the beginning.

Using 5% inflation, 3 WAR, -0.5 WAR/year and $8M/win you get something like this

Code: Select all

Year    2017   2018   2019   2020   2021

WAR      3.0    2.5    2.0    1.5    1.0

Value   $24M   $21M   $18M   $14M   $10M   

$87M total value

It gets better if the contract is backloaded and you can apply a discount rate so that the net present value is actually less than $82.5M. edit - if the cash is evenly distributed, I'm getting an NPV of $73.5M with a 4% interest rate.

[TimeForGuinness]

I really like this deal. $16.5mil AAV? Even if he just puts up 8-9 WAR over the length of the contract, it's at least market rate when factoring the rise of salaries in the future. Plus, he's done at 35/36 years of age? It's a solid contract.

The AAV is EXACTLY what it should be. The only part that's even troublesome is the 5th year, and... I mean, whatever. Who gives a [expletive].

Although the "factoring rising salaries" thing doesn't really work. You can only judge him based on the market he signed in, which is $8M/WAR. And honestly, I think he's a reasonable bet to hit 10 WAR over 5 years.

Yeah I understand about comparing him to the market he signed into, but it's a good reference point to know how much he'd be worth in current year WAR dollars. I think 10 WAR is definitely achievable over 5 years.

Example:
Fowler puts up 1.8 WAR in 2019
- 2016 dollars = $14.4m
- 2019 dollars = ~$18m

Translation, he's playing below his contract value, but costing the team less to do so.

The 5th year is definitely "who gives a [expletive]"...especially if he meets/outperforms his contract earlier.