Carpenter Signed through 2011, op. 2012 (Matthew Leach)

[vinsanity]

Not to re-hash this, but you can't negotiate a contract under the assumption that a player is going to be injured. So the only other option was to wait until Carpenter became a free agent. Let's assume they did that. Sabathia got $23 mil per year. Halladay got $20 mil per year. You have to assume that Carpenter would have been in that range also, if he had been "healthy Chris" in '07 and '08. As it is, the Cardinals gambled by signing him early for a presumed "discount". It turned out about right.

But the Cardinals signed him to an extension 2 full years before he hit free agency, which is really rare for pitchers who aren't arb eligible. So they could have easily waited another year before locking him up.

I'm with Secret. He had a full year and an option year. They could have waited till after the full year to negotiate an extension in place of the option. If talks stalled picked up the option and continued negotiations into the spring. Especially on a pitcher with his injury history. Worst case would be him getting paid market value. Best case? We get him for 3/25-40 instead of 45-55

It would seem they blew their load a little too quick.

[Swirls]

Exactly. They should have let him play out his 2007 season, exercise his option for 2008, and then work on an extension prior to ST (like they will do with Pujols this offseason).

Had they done the smart thing, they would be negotiating his "extension" after the 2008 season before free agency began. At that point, he would have missed pretty much the previous two full years prior due to injury, and would have been much cheaper. It would have resulted likely in a one year deal for 2009 with an option for 2010.

That would have freed up ownership to work out an extension prior to 2010 if they wanted to.

[Socnorb11]

Well, he's lived up to his contract but that still doesn't make it a good deal at all.

The old contract had an extension for '08. He basically missed all of '07 and '08. IF we had waited to do the extension like many of us thought, we would have been negotiating with a player who had just missed the previous two seasons. You think he would have gotten anything close to $14-$15 million that he's making now from '09-'12? Not a chance.

He would have been looking at something closer to $10 million per year, but for less time. By now he would be making big bucks again, but we definitely cost ourselves $10+ million in that extension.

And,again, Carp has definitely earned every cent we've paid him. We just should have would have been paying him less if we hadn't done the extension when we did.

Not to re-hash this, but you can't negotiate a contract under the assumption that a player is going to be injured. So the only other option was to wait until Carpenter became a free agent. Let's assume they did that. Sabathia got $23 mil per year. Halladay got $20 mil per year. You have to assume that Carpenter would have been in that range also, if he had been "healthy Chris" in '07 and '08. As it is, the Cardinals gambled by signing him early for a presumed "discount". It turned out about right.

But the Cardinals signed him to an extension 2 full years before he hit free agency, which is really rare for pitchers who aren't arb eligible. So they could have easily waited another year before locking him up.

If they waited another year, and he pitched lights out in 2007 (repeating his 2006 performance), then the extension is likely going to cost them $20 mil per year, instead of $14.5 mil per year (see Halladay & Sabathia).

If the Cards had waited, 2 things could have happend. Either he's healthy or he's not healthy:

1) If he's not healthy, he misses most of 2007 and 2008 (which the Cards had to pay him for anyway), signed a cheap 1 year contract for 2009, pitched lights-out in 2009, and gets $18-$20 mil per year after that.

2) If he's healthy and good, the Cards end up paying him $20 mil per year instead of $14.5 mil (costing them about $5.5 mil per year extra).


I don't see how waiting would have helped. After putting up a 184 ERA+ in 2009, someobody would have given him way more than $14.5 mil per year.

[mcgee51taguchi99]

Well, he's lived up to his contract but that still doesn't make it a good deal at all.

The old contract had an extension for '08. He basically missed all of '07 and '08. IF we had waited to do the extension like many of us thought, we would have been negotiating with a player who had just missed the previous two seasons. You think he would have gotten anything close to $14-$15 million that he's making now from '09-'12? Not a chance.

He would have been looking at something closer to $10 million per year, but for less time. By now he would be making big bucks again, but we definitely cost ourselves $10+ million in that extension.

And,again, Carp has definitely earned every cent we've paid him. We just should have would have been paying him less if we hadn't done the extension when we did.

Extending Carp was a risk, no one will argue that. So, the Cards don't extend Carp, and now the 2008 season is over. The scenarios:

1) The Cards can possibly sign him cheaply to a one year deal and he performs like he did in 2009. Bye bye Carp. He's staying if the Cards pay market rate or above due to the 2009 campaign and/or give him one more guaranteed year than anyone else, a NTC, vesting option, something to that effect. Somewhat similar to the extension in that you're probably overpaying for future years.

2) Keeping that one year deal in mind, he doesn't perform like he did in 2009, and the Cards aren't interested in another one year experiment. There are too many other reclamation projects out there, time to move to the next scrapheap guy.

3) The Cards lose him after 2008.

Granted, with hindsight in mind, the 2007 and 2008 teams couldn't get it together or catch many breaks. How much of that had to do with their ace largely being unavailable is debatable, but in any case let's just consider those "lost" seasons. Having him around isn't guaranteed to push the Cards back to the playoffs.

What's worse, a) losing him for the two "lost" seasons when he would have been here anyway and taking the chance of him not being here in 2009 and beyond, or b) slightly overpaying and ensuring he's here now?

In the end, it seems like his entire tenure here has worked out for both parties. Given how much he was underpaid relative to his performance in 2004-06 and immediately afterward produced nothing in 2007 and 08, I'll look into his WAR relative to production for the life of the contract and see if the numbers back up my perception.

And I realize the flaw in saying something like I'm about to, but if the argument is that the Cards shot themselves in the foot to the tune of $10 million, that money could have been spent in much worse ways (ahem, Jeff Suppan, cough). It's not my money of course, but if that's the "cost" of having him on this team right now, then I'm okay with it.

[vinsanity]

1) If he's not healthy, he misses most of 2007 and 2008 (which the Cards had to pay him for anyway), signed a cheap 1 year contract for 2009, pitched lights-out in 2009, and gets $18-$20 mil per year after that.

2) If he's healthy and good, the Cards end up paying him $20 mil per year instead of $14.5 mil (costing them about $5.5 mil per year extra).

I don't see how waiting would have helped. After putting up a 184 ERA+ in 2009, someobody would have given him way more than $14.5 mil per year.

I guess I see it like this, and some of it's hindsight.

1. He's not healthy and you pay him $19M for his missed time no matter what. You negotiate what's probably a one year team option second year. So it's probably 1/7-10 with a team option for a second year at a similar rate. You save almost $15M in cost, or negotiate after 09 for a 3/35-40 deal. A guy who'd be 35 entering free agency with his history doesn't have much bargaining power. He'd be a little cheaper.


2. He's healthy and lights out in 07. Pick up the option and start negotiating a contract. If he wants 5/100 laugh and keep negotiating to get him closer to 4/70, only a little more than we are currently paying him. If you can't get him where you want him, play 08 and work after the season. If he's lights out again, pay him the 4/80 and be done. But the chances of him having 5 consecutive dominant seasons were/are pretty slim, so I'd be willing to bet injury/regression in 07/08.

But at the end of the day, we'd only have saved a few million.