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Well a few things are going to happen yet for the Cubs.

Pro:
Heyward will likely not finish the season with a 68 OPS+
Rizzo and Bryant may finish with higher than 145 and 131 OPS+, respectively.

Con:
Every single one of their starting pitchers will end with lower ERA+'s than they currently have. Arietta is good, but I really doubt that he keeps up the pace quite this high. Lackey is in-line with last season, but I don't think he stays there. Lester isn't likely to have a career high at age 32 (though possible--but he's a run below his FIP). There's no way Hendricks and Hammel keep up their current pace. At least one of them will get injured at some point too.
Zobrist and Fowler are not likely to keep their OPS+'s above 150.

Almost everything is going right for the Cubs right now. Sometimes that happens for a full season (2001 Mariners). But often teams come back to earth a bit. I don't love that rotation, but maybe they have a 2004 Cardinals thing going on where they stay remarkably healthy and all have one of their best seasons. I'm iffy on the lineup too. Lots of talent there, but I think there's going to be ebbs and flows to how they perform.

I guess bottom line, their pythag is what it is to this point, but if I were a betting man I would bet on regression. They are still the best team on paper (and thus far in performance) in this division though.

The 2016 Cubs have allowed the same amount of runs thru 55 games that the 2015 Cardinals did....and they actually have a slightly higher strand rate than the 2015 Cards (something that pundits loved to write about). We thought the Cards pitching was going to regress and it never happened to the degree it prob. should have, so I could see the Cubs keeping this up all year long as well. They have a great defense and 4 guys who strike out a batter an inning or close to it.

Cheddar Tom wrote:The 2016 Cubs have allowed the same amount of runs thru 55 games that the 2015 Cardinals did....and they actually have a slightly higher strand rate than the 2015 Cards (something that pundits loved to write about). We thought the Cards pitching was going to regress and it never happened to the degree it prob. should have, so I could see the Cubs keeping this up all year long as well. They have a great defense and 4 guys who strike out a batter an inning or close to it.

And the difference between those two teams is that the 2015 Cardinals had zero offense and the 2016 Cubs have boatloads of it. If you take two teams built on run prevention, but also add one of the best, if not the best, offensive team in the league, that gives you your 117 win pace (as everyone on this board is well aware of, which ultimately makes this post of mine completely worthless).

Cheddar Tom wrote:The 2016 Cubs have allowed the same amount of runs thru 55 games that the 2015 Cardinals did....and they actually have a slightly higher strand rate than the 2015 Cards (something that pundits loved to write about). We thought the Cards pitching was going to regress and it never happened to the degree it prob. should have, so I could see the Cubs keeping this up all year long as well. They have a great defense and 4 guys who strike out a batter an inning or close to it.

There were valid reasons for why we expected the 2015 Cardinals to regress. Just because that regression didn't arrive until the NLDS does not mean that we shouldn't be applying the same logic to the Cubs' current rotation.

Sure, those pitchers could *all* keep up the career-high levels of performance. I personally would not bet much money on that happening. They have good pitchers, but their current team ERA+ is 157. 157!!! Even 140 would be at historic levels (2015 Cardinals finished at 134).

That said, they've had a great start, and will probably win over 100.

If they are going to win the division anyway I hope they win 118 games so the thud is that much louder when they bow out in the postseason, Mariners fans would thank them. I have a cub fan friend who I explained this logic to and it got to him a bit, he no longer crows at every Cubs win so it worked for something.

Popeye_Card wrote:There were valid reasons for why we expected the 2015 Cardinals to regress. Just because that regression didn't arrive until the NLDS does not mean that we shouldn't be applying the same logic to the Cubs' current rotation.

Sure, those pitchers could *all* keep up the career-high levels of performance. I personally would not bet much money on that happening. They have good pitchers, but their current team ERA+ is 157. 157!!! Even 140 would be at historic levels (2015 Cardinals finished at 134).

Right....they are going to regress, just as the '15 Cards did, but it's more a matter of how much. Currently they are on track to allow ~480 runs. The 2015 Cards fell off that pace by 45 runs w/o the benefit of an exceptional defense and 4 high-K pitchers. I think they have a good chance to repeat what the '15 Cards did or better it.

Aside from Schwarber, the Cubs have remained very healthy so far. That won't last.

Feels weird rooting for the Cubs as often as I do.

But we need them to continue to beat the rest of the NL to enhance our chances at a Wild Card.

dmarx114 wrote:Feels weird rooting for the Cubs as often as I do.

But we need them to continue to beat the rest of the NL to enhance our chances at a Wild Card.

Plus, nothing better than watching a 120 win team fall on it's ass in October.

I'm okay with them winning it all. Get it over with. They can shed the whole "lovable loser" mystique and become just another big market team.

I still don't think they sniff 110+ wins, though. The Cubs finish the season with 4 of 5 against a Pirates team that will probably be fighting for the wild card. I can easily see Maddon rolling out the scrubs/call ups that weekend assuming they've already clinched home field. Their fans probably wouldn't even mind if losing helped keep the Cardinals or Mets out of the playoffs.