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haltz wrote:

But, that trouble is countered by the production we got at the beginning.

Using 5% inflation, 3 WAR, -0.5 WAR/year and $8M/win you get something like this

Code: Select all

Year    2017   2018   2019   2020   2021

WAR      3.0    2.5    2.0    1.5    1.0

Value   $24M   $21M   $18M   $14M   $10M   

$87M total value

It gets better if the contract is backloaded and you can apply a discount rate so that the net present value is actually less than $82.5M. edit - if the cash is evenly distributed, I'm getting an NPV of $73.5M with a 4% interest rate.

Yeah, that's pretty much it for me. You just hope the regression in years 4 and 5 (or earlier, obviously) don't accelerate. I don't like gambling on that 5th year. But it's fine, too. If that's what it took to get the deal done, do it.

JL21 wrote:

haltz wrote:

But, that trouble is countered by the production we got at the beginning.

Using 5% inflation, 3 WAR, -0.5 WAR/year and $8M/win you get something like this

Code: Select all

Year    2017   2018   2019   2020   2021

WAR      3.0    2.5    2.0    1.5    1.0

Value   $24M   $21M   $18M   $14M   $10M   

$87M total value

It gets better if the contract is backloaded and you can apply a discount rate so that the net present value is actually less than $82.5M. edit - if the cash is evenly distributed, I'm getting an NPV of $73.5M with a 4% interest rate.

Yeah, that's pretty much it for me. You just hope the regression in years 4 and 5 (or earlier, obviously) don't accelerate. I don't like gambling on that 5th year. But it's fine, too. If that's what it took to get the deal done, do it.

Agreed. I hope they're not looking at 2021 and going...well, write Fowler's name in pen in the OF/CF and write it in pen in the leadoff spot....or anywhere in the lineup.

Going into these things, you'd think, they would know that the 5th year may well be a bust and they'll have to pay to get no value. But, it's silly to waste a roster spot, let alone a position on the field/inthe lineup just because they're paying a guy and agreed to do it 5 years prior.

It's just the cost of signing players in FA. The ends of the contracts are not likely to end well...But, when you're trying to hoard prospects and win every year, these kinds of things are going to happen. Ride the horse while they can...but don't let it kill them by falling off a cliff along with it just because it's paid for.

It's why I'm all in favor of trading Peralta. We're sitting here hoping he can bounce back and not be the tin man at 3b and put up an average offensive season. Terrible strategy. And, they're doing it just because they're paying him. Easy to say it's not my money, but it seems like a boneheaded move to jeopardize the playoffs because they don't want to eat, what, $13M? Most of which he has already provided value for already.

9:11
biffyclyro: As a Cubs fan, how do I reconcile my happiness that Dexter Fowler finally got paid with my disappointment that it’s with the Cardinals?

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: World Series!

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: woooooo!!

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: Fowler’s best years will come at the start of the contract. During those years, the Cubs look the best, so they’re likely to still win the division

9:21
Aladdin Sane: You taking the Fowler or Heyward contract from here? Heyward younger and much better if he fixes, Fowler aging and probably won’t repeat 2016 but no-doubt solid.

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: Basically off the top of my head, I still have a slight preference for Heyward. I think he bounces back in a big way and he still has prime years to deliver, whereas Fowler is now into his 30s

9:26
Rhendricks: With the Cardinals signing Fowler, what are the chances that they go after another FA with a draft pick attached? Someone like Turner or EE?

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: I still just don’t see where there’s room. I get that they’re more incentivized now than they were a week ago, but that infield is full

9:33
groucho: What do you think of the Fowler deal?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: It surprised me. Now that we sort of understand his defense is better than we thought, it’s not horrible or anything. And this way the Cardinals don’t have to give up any young players. They’re going to need those young players because the core continues to age. I think it’s a known overpay, but they didn’t want to be left without a center fielder

9:43
Dougie: Would you say that the Fowler signing makes another big move more or less likely for the Cardinals?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see a necessity

9:53
CarrotJuice: What’s your hottest take on the Fowler deal?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: The Cardinals got scared and paid to take the easy way out

10:24
baby bull : 5 years for with full no trade for Fowler ages 31-35? how? speed and defense will decline quickly, not much power to begin with

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: Consistently above-average hitter, defense has been solid in the middle for two years running. It’s not too hard to see this working out just fine

Dexter Fowler Fills Glaring Hole for Cardinals

by Craig Edwards - December 9, 2016

Since the middle of 2009, the Cardinals’ left fielder has been Matt Holliday. Injuries kept Holliday from playing a full season each of the last two years. For that reason and perhaps others, the team decided not to exercise his $17 million option, instead paying a $1 million buyout. Similarly, the team opted not to give a qualifying offer to Brandon Moss, who hit 28 homers but also struck out 30% of the time, somewhat limiting his value offensively. As a result, the Cardinals entered the offseason with two starting outfielders, Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty, and a hole. Following Ian Desmond‘s deal for $70 million with Colorado and the White Sox’ trade of Adam Eaton to Washington in return for major package of prospects, the Cardinals elected to fill that hole with Dexter Fowler on five-year contract worth $82.5 million.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dexter-f ... cardinals/

2017: i think heyward will bounce back in a big way
2018: i think heyward will bounce back in a big way
2019: i think heyward will bounce back in a big way
2020: i think heyward will bounce back in a big way
2021: i think heyward will bounce back in a big way
2022: i think heyward will bounce back in a big way
2023: i think heyward will bounce back in a big way
2024: i think heyward will bounce back in a big way
2025: i think heyward will bounce back in a big way
2026: heyward really f*cking sucked offensively

go birds wrote:2017: i think heyward will bounce back in a big way
2018: i think heyward will bounce back in a big way
2019: i think heyward will bounce back in a big way
2020: i think heyward will bounce back in a big way
2021: i think heyward will bounce back in a big way
2022: i think heyward will bounce back in a big way
2023: i think heyward will bounce back in a big way
2024: i think heyward will bounce back in a big way
2025: i think heyward will bounce back in a big way
2026: heyward really f*cking sucked offensively

if heyward is his pre-2016 self, he and his contract are perfectly fine.

of course, if he is 2016 heyward from here on out, it's a disaster.

If that's the case, the best thing HOF Manager 3000 could do for the Cubs in the future is convincing Heyward to test the market come opt-out time.

if you don't mind being yelled at

http://m.cardinals.mlb.com/stl/video/to ... eam_id=138

TIL Fowler was accepted into Harvard.