Update: HOLLIDAY A CARD 7yr/120 million, p178

[JCShutout]

I'd rather Smoltz start and Garcia be a swingman/6th starter (not too many innings after surgery plz), and then Smoltz can be a RP in the playoffs.

5th starter is rarely needed to actually start every 5th day (due to off-days); if they need to give him rest they can do so. I'd like to see what Garcia's got. Besides, I'm not sure Smoltzy will go that cheap. At this point I would think he's going to go the Roger Clemens/Pedro Martinez route and sign halfway through the year.

At this point, I'd say Lohse is probably going to slot in as the 4th/5th starter anyways.

With as much money as we have invested in 4 starting pitchers, I'd prefer we protect those investments with a decent 5th starter so they can occasionally have the extra day off.

I'd rather invest the team invest the majority of their money in good starting pitching anyway. I don't think investing in a 5th starter "protects" them in the end. If Carp and Wainwright are going to blow their arms off in the future it will have had little to do with whether Smoltz pitches in the 5th spot or if Garcia does. Or Boggs. Or Wellemeyer.

Worry about the relievers, not the starters, when it comes to durability/injury risk of rotation pitchers, IMO. Because if we lose Carp and Wainwright we're in trouble and we know it. Planning for the worst in this economy leads to bad decisions (Lohse).

But if we lose Lohse or Penny, having Smoltz in there keeps us contenders. Even if everyone stays away from big injuries, Garcia could get 5 or 6 starts and experience in the pen even with Smoltz.

[number9]

Just reading through some initial reactions to the deal.

The question that I am most interested in (Holliday) is this: did the Cardinals bid against themselves? Don't know.

'I am stunned...STUNNED...that the Cardinals went to 120 million. The Orioles were offering $70 million and the Yanks, Sox, Mets, Angels, etc were not interested.

'Don't you understand how dumb this was? There were NO OTHER BIDDERS!'

Sure looks like the Cardinals bid mostly against themselves.

But given the lack of another clear bidder for Holliday's services -- you'll have to forgive me if I put the Mystery Team in the same category as the Tooth Fairy and the homunculus -- it's even more impressive for Holliday and his agent, Scott Boras, to get this kind of annual salary.

Top of my head: Boras/Holliday won. Seven years w/full no-trade is excellent deal for player.

I would like to play poker with Mozeliak.

So the question is....did Mo get fleeced by Boras?

[Swingingbunt]

So the question is....did Mo get fleeced by Boras?

I don't think so. Holliday is definitely a core player. He's definitely better than Bay - both offensively and defensively - so you knew he was going to get paid more. The length bugs me a little, but a shorter contract would have meant more/yr, so I'm fine with things this way. This signing absolutely won't keep us from signing Pujols, and I really don't think it raises the cost for Pujols either. We'll have to get lucky in some player development areas...Rasmus needs to be a big contributor, Garcia needs to pan out, Ryan needs to continue where he left off last year, Jones needs to put a big year together, etc...in order to keep payroll where it is right now in the next five years, but it's probably time for a $110MM payroll soon anyway.

If you supposedly pay roughly $3MM/win, then we paid the going rate for Holliday...if he stays healthy. But, health would be a concern whether it was a 3, 5, or 10 year deal; so that's a dumb argument in my mind.

Personally, I'm excited. Pujols/Holliday for the next two years at least. Boras said something to the effect that this contract paid an even $17MM/year. Anyone heard whether that's AAV or whether we actually pay him $17MM each year?

I still maintain that if the Yankees had signed Holliday to this deal that the news outlets would be praising them for talking Boras down from his initial $20MM/yr demands.

[jagtrader]

People criticizing the contract are looking at it in a vacuum. Did the Cards pay too much? Yes. Did they give too many years? Yes. Could they have gotten Holliday for less if they waited until February and played hardball? Possibly.

But the Cardinals needed to make this move. Holliday was the only player available this offseason who made sense and he was the only elite player they've had a chance to acquire in years. If you wait and he decides to take a shorter deal with someone else in order to get paid later or if a big-market team jumps in, the Cardinals were screwed. There were no other options for 2010 that made them as good as Holliday will make them. He fit perfectly and medium-payroll teams have to act under those circumstances.

Plus, when the Red Sox gave Lackey $17 million/year, the national media was turning cartwheels. This is likely a better investment than that one, even if one of the big-money favorites lost out for a change.

[Cole Burns]

I don't understand the whole "Cards bid against themselves" noise. Sure, there may not have been any other bidders out there, but that doesn't mean Mo lost in negotiations. They are NEGOTIATIONS. Both sides try to get the best deal. From what I've read we started at somewhere in the neighborhood of $15/per. Boras wanted $22/per +. We went up $2 and he came down $5. Sounds like Mo never blinked once.

If you say that there were no other bidders I guess you think that we could have got him for league minimum? Of course not. So, you have to pay him what's he worth given the market. Last offseason he was worth Tex money. This offseason he was worth just north of Bay. If we signed him to the same contract a year ago they would have thrown Mo a ticker tape parade.

[Fan_In_NY]

The Cards probably bid against themselves, but if they tried to lowball Boras I guarentee either the Yanks, or another team would have swooped in and offered a Manny-like 45M for 2 years. Of course it would have been up Holliday to pick if he wanted a long term contract or a high AAV with a chance to try free agency again when the market changed.

[stlouie_lipp]

People criticizing the contract are looking at it in a vacuum. Did the Cards pay too much? Yes. Did they give too many years? Yes. Could they have gotten Holliday for less if they waited until February and played hardball? Possibly.

But the Cardinals needed to make this move. Holliday was the only player available this offseason who made sense and he was the only elite player they've had a chance to acquire in years. If you wait and he decides to take a shorter deal with someone else in order to get paid later or if a big-market team jumps in, the Cardinals were screwed. There were no other options for 2010 that made them as good as Holliday will make them. He fit perfectly and medium-payroll teams have to act under those circumstances.

Plus, when the Red Sox gave Lackey $17 million/year, the national media was turning cartwheels. This is likely a better investment than that one, even if one of the big-money favorites lost out for a change.

I agree with all of this.

[BW23]

I'm not happy with the length and the entire money, but I'm glad it's done, and I'm glad he'll be here. I worry about the combined contracts of the big guys taking up too much of the payroll, and I worry that Holliday won't be worth it in those last couple of years, but the options were limited.

Time to move on and finish up the club.

[TimeForGuinness]

So the question is....did Mo get fleeced by Boras?

I don't think so. Holliday is definitely a core player. He's definitely better than Bay - both offensively and defensively - so you knew he was going to get paid more. The length bugs me a little, but a shorter contract would have meant more/yr, so I'm fine with things this way. This signing absolutely won't keep us from signing Pujols, and I really don't think it raises the cost for Pujols either. We'll have to get lucky in some player development areas...Rasmus needs to be a big contributor, Garcia needs to pan out, Ryan needs to continue where he left off last year, Jones needs to put a big year together, etc...in order to keep payroll where it is right now in the next five years, but it's probably time for a $110MM payroll soon anyway.

If you supposedly pay roughly $3MM/win, then we paid the going rate for Holliday...if he stays healthy. But, health would be a concern whether it was a 3, 5, or 10 year deal; so that's a dumb argument in my mind.

Personally, I'm excited. Pujols/Holliday for the next two years at least. Boras said something to the effect that this contract paid an even $17MM/year. Anyone heard whether that's AAV or whether we actually pay him $17MM each year?

I still maintain that if the Yankees had signed Holliday to this deal that the news outlets would be praising them for talking Boras down from his initial $20MM/yr demands.

I'm pretty sure that if the Cards were to only offer Holliday 5y/90m then the Yankees, Halos, etc might have jumped back in to the bidding. My guess is that we might have saved about $10 million over a 5-7 year span.

Plus, you have to consider he was going to get more than Bay. We have a solid bat behind Pujols and a solid glove in LF. And if we can get a discount from the Free Agent market for Pujols, then it all balances out.

IMHO, Down the road when the market re-establishes itself, this deal will look great. You just can't look at it as a Holliday contract...you have to look at it as the Holliday & Pujols contract and if it balances out.

The Cardinals know how much they can spend, we don't...but DeWitt held true to his promise that if there was someone out there, then he would open the DeWallet and pay.

Good job Mo and DeWitt.

[JL21]

Today, DeWallet looks a little bit differently.

(spoilered for language)

[SHOW]

Anyway, I think they overspent on dollars and years, and they probably "bid against themselves" (i.e. raised their offer to get the freakin' deal done and make everyone a happy camper). But you can't ignore the bottom line in all of this. By making this move, they're the favorite in the NLC this year and probably next year too. It extends a decade-long run. And, Brett Wallace's Prospect Status as a Cardinal will not die in vain now.

Besides, Bay got $16M/yr. The Cardinals got Holliday for $1M more (well... and three more years, but whatever). Given the colossal gap in quality between those two players, and given that Bay set the market, I'd say it's impossible to look too harshly at 7/$120M.