cards2468 wrote:
I still think people need to consider the great likelyhood the market will drastically inflate within the next few years ...
While I'm not criticizing the contract, I don't buy the point being repeatedly made that the market will drastically inflate in the near future. It's kind of like people in California saying that their home values are only going to go up. Now, they are underwater on their mortgages. These things are cyclical and where you buy on the curve is critical to your success.
There is no immediate cause for believing that the economy is in particular robust shape and it is clear peoples spending habits have been modified by the events of the last couple of years. If people loose access to easy credit and begin to live within their means, there are going to be fewer $200-$300 trips to games. Corporate sponsers are going to be cutting back as well. Baseball is already squeezing every dollar out of consumers that they can and I don't assume that they are going to be able to continue to ratchet up prices across the board. In fact, if they can merely maintain current revenues, they would be doing better than almost any other business.
cards2468 wrote:
I still think people need to consider the great likelyhood the market will drastically inflate within the next few years ...
While I'm not criticizing the contract, I don't buy the point being repeatedly made that the market will drastically inflate in the near future. It's kind of like people in California saying that their home values are only going to go up. Now, they are underwater on their mortgages. These things are cyclical and where you buy on the curve is critical to your success.
There is no immediate cause for believing that the economy is in particular robust shape and it is clear peoples spending habits have been modified by the events of the last couple of years. If people loose access to easy credit and begin to live within their means, there are going to be fewer $200-$300 trips to games. Corporate sponsers are going to be cutting back as well. Baseball is already squeezing every dollar out of consumers that they can and I don't assume that they are going to be able to continue to ratchet up prices across the board. In fact, if they can merely maintain current revenues, they would be doing better than almost any other business.
yea, it's a cycle, and right now we're at 1 of the lowest points our economy has seen in a long time... I'd imagine it can only go up... or at least I hope so
Michael wrote:It'll be a great deal if he's the difference between making the playoffs and staying home.
I'd guess they've got their sights a little higher than just making the playoffs.
If the big criticism is that Mozeliak may have been bidding against himself, then this is a great deal. The attacks on, say, the Soriano and Carlos Lee deals were much more direct and much more fact-based.
Category III. Legitimate Contender: 87-92 projected wins.
Optimal Strategy: Buy
The decision to buy here is clear. These clubs have the most to gain from adding additional talent, and they will usually be the ones driving the free-agent and trade markets. A Category III team playing in a smaller market, like Oakland or Minnesota, has less margin for error, and might think about one or two year commitments instead of multiyear deals, but they still ought to be aggressively seeking out ways to improve their stock of talent.
Because without Holliday, they were an 86-ish win team. Looking at the graph, it would appear that they're set to gain an additional $.5M this season if Holliday pushes them into the playoffs.
cards2468 wrote:
yea, it's a cycle, and right now we're at 1 of the lowest points our economy has seen in a long time... I'd imagine it can only go up... or at least I hope so
But my point would be that Baseballs economy is not at a historic low. Baseball was enjoying some of the highest revenues every before the economy tanked. There was a huge to build new luxury parks in every city.
The U.S. economy will go up, but its like to be some number of years before people are truly comfortable returning to their old ways of spending. I don't think MLB can expect major revenue increases over the next 5 years, maybe even longer.
I bought a Holliday jersey at the game (actually right before) I went to in August. In my mind, if they're going to make a move like that, [expletive] it, I'll support them. I also bought a lot of beer, in support of the team of course.
the Cardinals Marketing Director actually came to SLU to speak, I went and managed to ask him a few questions, but every chance he got he mentioned how huge it would be for marketing and ticket sales if the Cardinals would re-sign Matt Holliday. He said they were really hoping they'd sign him before xmas so that they could have the "Holliday Package" that's a ticket pack for 15 games. So yea, I'd say he'll help the team in terms of revenue.
