Update: Phil Rogers Still on Crack

[Fat Strat]

He was hitting (not sitting) 91 this week. And yes, that IS like last year, when he worked 88-91 -- and when he gave up rather a lot of homers, had an ERA of 5, pitched well enough to earn an ERA of more like 5 and a half (see: FIP), and admitted he couldn't throw as hard as he used to and didn't know why. So, being where he left off last season is no particular accomplishment so far, in my eyes.

Til he is sitting 92-94, and hitting 95+ at least a couple-few pitches per start, he still is not the same as he was exiting 2005, regardless of whether due to pitch selection, mechanics, injury, fatigue, or the lunar cycles. Mind you, I'm NOT saying he can't be a good pitcher exactly the way he is. But even if only in my eyes, the mystery of where his explosive stuff and late movement and above-average velocity all went is very much still out there.

Point conceede without much argument. The article implied that his velocity had dropped since last year, which isn't the case. It's dropped since '05, but we already knew that. It's at least close to the same now as it was in '06, and has the potential (speculation) to climb if his offseason condition and strength-training regiment works for him.

I'm not holding my breath that he'll get his velocity back. But, I don't really care. Even if he's at 90-91 consistently, he'll be fine if he can control his 2-seamer and locate better.

Chalk his hr's up to lack of velocity if you want. But, personally I think they were caused by a lack of velocity on pitches that had bad location. 95 and he can squeak by with bad location (particularly up in the zone, and despite an unfamiliar pitch, his 2-seamer). With improved location and improved command of his 4-seam, 2-seam, change, and curve, he'll knock 10 hr's off his projections, .10 off his whip, and 1 run off his era.

That's not what some were expecting from his minor league career, but it's perfectly fine production for this team.

[greenback44]

Count me a mong those who did not find the usually-vapid Jackson's article all that egregious. A couple quick thoughts about some of the posts on this thread:

the Cardinals pitching staff right now is basically Chris Carpenter, Josh Hancock and 10 question marks

Not for nothing, but it would even be fair to think of Hancock as a questionmark. He's 29 and has the equivalent of a season and a half in the majors. He puts a ton of balls in play so there is the possibility of some big time regression (especially if lack of depth in the pen means TLR getting to pick and choose a little less than he likes), and he does not get the ball past many hitters. What he is going to do this year is a pretty open question, frankly.

You could say this about virtually every mediocre reliever on the planet. He's Josh Hancock. He'll handle the mop-up duties, complete the 6th occasionally and do little more than that.

[greenback44]

Often it's one word in an article that sets the tone. For me, it is the word "forced" when talking about moving Wainwright to the rotation. The lack of moves by WJ "forced" the Cardinals to move him.

Horsecrup. AW has been targeted as a starter all along, only moving to the bullpen last year because there wasn't room.

I'm not going through old threads for a Phil Rogers article, but my recollection was that in November the Cardinals wanted to leave Wainwright in the pen but would move him back to the rotation if the market for starters was overheated.

[skmsw]

Point conceede without much argument. The article implied that his velocity had dropped since last year, which isn't the case.

OK, fair enough, I didn't actually read it that way myself.

It's dropped since '05, but we already knew that. It's at least close to the same now as it was in '06, and has the potential (speculation) to climb if his offseason condition and strength-training regiment works for him.

Boy, I just don't know. As discussed last week, I'm really skeptical that those are reasons his velocity will climb. Here's hoping you're right . . .

I'm not holding my breath that he'll get his velocity back. But, I don't really care. Even if he's at 90-91 consistently, he'll be fine if he can control his 2-seamer and locate better. Chalk his hr's up to lack of velocity if you want. But, personally I think they were caused by a lack of velocity on pitches that had bad location. 95 and he can squeak by with bad location (particularly up in the zone, and despite an unfamiliar pitch, his 2-seamer). With improved location and improved command of his 4-seam, 2-seam, change, and curve, he'll knock 10 hr's off his projections, .10 off his whip, and 1 run off his era.

I think you should care. Rather a lot, actually. First off, if his velocity dropped 3-5 miles an hour for no reason from Fall 2005 til Spring 2006, what are the chances that it will just stay where it is -- instead of continuing to drop, or giving out altogether?

Second off, I agree with you that we should not look only at velocity. The whole package does indeed matter -- pitchers with three good pitches and great command can be average or even dominant sitting at 88-91. But looking at his whole packkage, it's important to remember that not only the velocity fell.

Reyes was a great prospect not only because he had electric stuff (which in 2005 he did, but which in 2006 we rarely saw); he also had dynamite command and plus control. Through his minor league career he walked 1.81 batters and allowed 0.79 homers per 9 innings; last year he was double both of those.

Maybe this is just learning curve stuff, or small sample size stuff, and he will simply locate better this year and moving forward. But I'm a little concerned that his velocity AND his control AND his command were ALL down. High pitches that we think were missed location -- used to get past hitters, but he has openly admitted that he can't reach back for that anymore. Corners he used to paint he was missing in 2006; pitches that used to move late are not doing what he expected them to do right now.

As I said in the thread linked above, this sounds familiar to me.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Count me a mong those who did not find the usually-vapid Jackson's article all that egregious. A couple quick thoughts about some of the posts on this thread:

the Cardinals pitching staff right now is basically Chris Carpenter, Josh Hancock and 10 question marks

Not for nothing, but it would even be fair to think of Hancock as a questionmark. He's 29 and has the equivalent of a season and a half in the majors. He puts a ton of balls in play so there is the possibility of some big time regression (especially if lack of depth in the pen means TLR getting to pick and choose a little less than he likes), and he does not get the ball past many hitters. What he is going to do this year is a pretty open question, frankly.

You could say this about virtually every mediocre reliever on the planet. He's Josh Hancock. He'll handle the mop-up duties, complete the 6th occasionally and do little more than that.

Who's going to be pitching the 7th and 8th innings? Thompson(who you could make a very similar argument for considering his lack of K's and poor K/BB) and...?

[haltz]

Who's going to be pitching the 7th and 8th innings?

The setup guy should be the loser of the "fifth starter competition". Meaning, either Looper or Thompson. So, Thompson probably. Then, aside from Izzy, there is Russ Spinger, a bunch of lefties, Josh Hancock, and I guess Ryan Franklin. Keisler, Cavazos and Jimenez are the long shots I suppose. I think Crustache Cate has already been cut.

[Fat Strat]

Maybe this is just learning curve stuff, or small sample size stuff, and he will simply locate better this year and moving forward. But I'm a little concerned that his velocity AND his control AND his command were ALL down. High pitches that we think were missed location -- used to get past hitters, but he has openly admitted that he can't reach back for that anymore. Corners he used to paint he was missing in 2006; pitches that used to move late are not doing what he expected them to do right now.

I'm not going to say that those aren't going to be concerns. Obviously they are.

But, I'm a believer in a couple truths. One is that pitching is very difficult and something seemingly very small (like tweaking a fastball grip) can impact performance in a signficant way.

Some of this is mental, some physical. Reyes had to learn how to throw down in the zone. Anytime that you are concentrating on changing ingrained habits (like throwing high) you're not going to be able to concentrate as much on location, etc. You only hav so much mental energy to divide up. I think (though don't know) that this might impact a pitcher's overall performance. Concentration issues can lead to poor command, which results in more walks and more hr's. Just a theory, but it has some reason behind it.

Second is that the minors aren't the majors and success in the minors rarely translates to immediate success in the majors. Added stress, strange clubhouse, new people, new coaches, TV cameras, whatever can get to you and affect the way you perform. Throw that into the concentration issue and it gives it a little more teeth. Few pitchers are just as good in their first 17 starts as they are become in their second season and beyond.

Third is that you can't worry about something you that's very difficult to change, so you're better off being satisfied with what you have. After watching Reyes last year, I'm willing to chalk his inconsistency up to command/velocity/concentration issues that led to more walks and hr's, but not necessarily more hits. Two of those are addressable and possibly correctable under his current pitching approach. Two of those typically improve with more experience in the league. One is very difficult to improve, regardless of league, age, stress level, etc.

I'm going to choose to worry about the things that Reyes can probably improve upon and not fret too much about stuff that might improve but probably won't.

[skmsw]

pitching is very difficult and something seemingly very small can impact performance in a signficant way . . . Some of this is mental, some physical . . . Concentration issues can lead to poor command . . . I'm going to choose to worry about the things that Reyes can probably improve upon and not fret too much about stuff that might improve but probably won't.

Fair enough. But I think that the above is a pretty good representation of the approach that a lot of Cards fans took with Matt Morris and Mark Mulder.

[heyzeus]

I don't see what's so bad about this article. Granting that losing Jason Marquis is a positive and Josh Kinney wasn't particularly important a year ago, the Cardinals pitching staff right now is basically Chris Carpenter, Josh Hancock and 10 question marks.

That's a bit of an exaggeration.

[skmsw]

I don't see what's so bad about this article. Granting that losing Jason Marquis is a positive and Josh Kinney wasn't particularly important a year ago, the Cardinals pitching staff right now is basically Chris Carpenter, Josh Hancock and 10 question marks.

That's a bit of an exaggeration.

I don't think it is. Some, maybe most, who knows maybe even ALL of those questionmarks will be answered positively, but they are indeed questionmarks.

Carp -- no real questions

Wells -- is he healthy? is he the 6.00 ERA guy of the past two years?
Wainwright -- how is he a second-third time through? can he get lefties?
Reyes -- is he better than the 5.00 ERA of 06? Where did the mph go?
Looper -- can he get out lefties enough to start, can he go 5+ IP?
Thompson -- how is he 2-3 times through the lineup with one pitch?
Mulder -- will he come back from rotator cuff surgery? Any good?

Izzy -- izzy healthy? if so, izzy still effective? Turns 35 this year . . .
TJ -- pitched to 1 batter at a time; we don't know WHO he really is
Flores -- pitched to 1 batter at a time; we don't know WHO he really is
Hancock -- regress to the mean? or for-real utility bullpen arm?
Springer -- age 38, and nursing injuries. Will he be durable? effective?