GatewayRedbirds.com

skmsw wrote:
I have not done any modeling yet, but off the top of my head, I think the risk of the downside of our questionmarks and gambles is a little lower, than the potential of the up-side is high. Everything falling into place and we're a 90-win team. Most things not falling into place and we're a 90-loss team. Things working out the way I expect, we're about a 500 team. Details to follow soon on my blog (and certainly, here on the forum too).

Looking forward to your projections. My projections running last week had the Cardinals at about 84 wins on average, but of course there were variances. I don't have the data with me, but I seem to remember a 100 win season in there as their high. I'm pretty sure I remember a low in the high 60's.

I have no doubt this team could lose 90+ games. I also have no doubt this team can win 90+ games. The most likely scenario I see is mid 80's, which really puts them in the thick of things for the NL Central and a chance to defend their World Series championship.

There is uncertainty but hope, skepticism along side optimism. We could finish from last to first, nothing is a given. We could collapse, feeding fuel to the fire of those pointing to our tattered World Series flag. We could flourish, and repeat as World Series champions for the first time since the 99 Yanks. That would repair that 2006 flag flying over Busch this year in a second.

As a fan, I'm pretty fired up about this scenario. Really fired up.

RC21 wrote:Seriously. Bleeding talent. I can't get past that. They lost:

-Ronnie Belliard (.237/ .295/ .371)
-Jose Vizcaino (23 AB's)
-Timo Perez (31 AB's)
-Hector Luna (.291/ .355/ .417.... in 223 AB's)
-Jeff Weaver (5.18 ERA)
-Jason Marquis (6.02 ERA)
-Jeff Suppan (4.12 ERA)

Oh, and Ponson (5.24) and Sosa (5.28).

Woe is Walt! How dare the media not admonish him for letting that fleet of productivity get away!

Yeah, it's not the insulting our talent part that gets me. Obviously, there's very good arguments to be made that the Cardinals could possibly stink this year. It's the laying it all in Walt Joketty's lap that is mind-boggling.

Tell us, Nate Silver, what was he supposed to do?

The myth about the farm system irritates me the most. Guys who don't appear on Baseball America's top prospects list help big-league teams succeed all the time. If you watched the Cardinals, you'd realize this. Two key members of their bullpen and their .950 OPS outfielder weren't "prospects." But since these Web sites weren't high on these guys it's like their contributions never happened.

90 losses is still 72 wins


WOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

-Brodie


PS and still not finish last...poor poor pirates

jagtrader wrote:The myth about the farm system irritates me the most. Guys who don't appear on Baseball America's top prospects list help big-league teams succeed all the time. If you watched the Cardinals, you'd realize this. Two key members of their bullpen and their .950 OPS outfielder weren't "prospects." But since these Web sites weren't high on these guys it's like their contributions never happened.

+++

I don't think I could have said it any better than RC did.

Quick, somebody get me a Cessna, a banner and some paint so I can spell out "DAMN YOU, WALT!" and fly it over Roger Dean. I am SOO over this team.

Cronos69 wrote:90 losses?

Yeah. Just a tiny bit of overreaction there.

The way the starting pitching has been, Luis Melendez and Hector Cruz could come out of retirement and play in the OF.

Have you guys seen that ERA for the starters?

robbotis wrote:

skmsw wrote:Every team has positions held down by below-average players. Every team has question marks.

Not the Yankees. Their Lineup is ridiculous.

Although Doug Mientkiewicz and whoever he platoons with will be below average.

jagtrader wrote:The myth about the farm system irritates me the most. Guys who don't appear on Baseball America's top prospects list help big-league teams succeed all the time. If you watched the Cardinals, you'd realize this. Two key members of their bullpen and their .950 OPS outfielder weren't "prospects." But since these Web sites weren't high on these guys it's like their contributions never happened.

Every team ever has significant home grown contributions from their bullpen. Very few have the financial capacity to do otherwise. BA doesn't mention it because it's more rare not to have it.

This is the answer to their optimistic review of the Cardinals. I believe they do this with all teams.

http://gatewayredbirds.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=14726