GatewayRedbirds.com

haltz wrote:

I looked up the career clutch numbers for just a bunch of random guys who I was interested in. Weirdly, three guys who have kind of a giant "clutch" repuatation are very near zero for a career clutch number (Jeter, Reggie Jackson and Albert). I'd guess that these guys just didn't play very different in big situations versus others.

Part of it is that a lot of super late and close situations lend themselves to contact hitters. You need to get that runner in from second and you choose Ichiro over McGwire every time, even though McGwire is the superior hitter overall.

I was looking through the top end of the list for exceptions, where there was a slugger-type that still had a good career clutch number. There aren't very many. Here are a few:
Dave Parker = 7.64
Bobby Abreu = 6.32
Joey Votto = 4.58 (already mentioned)
Jason Giambi = 3.32
Carlos Delgado = 2.95

(Aside: Wade Boggs was only -0.03, but Tony Gwynn has the highest clutch number of the last 30 years, 9.49).

I don't know, I still found it interesting that so many of the steroid guys were at the very bottom of this list. Sosa and Bonds were two of the lowest in this stat in the last 30 years (Bonds was 6th from last and Sosa was dead last, out of 1300+ players).

Could this stat be telling us which hitters are more likely to adjust their style depending on the situation? A guy like Dave Parker might have been more willing to just put the ball in play to help his team in a high-leverage situation and not worry as much about power...whereas guys like Bonds and Sosa were a *shade* more selfish and always swung for the fences, regardless of the situation?

Yes, some players may not have this skill to adjust their style to a situation...but how many of these guys have the skill, but choose not to use it? We'll never know. IMO it's pretty safe to assume Bonds was a selfish player, and possibly the steroid guys in general, because, uh, they took steroids.

The other interesting question is: would their teams be better off if they did swing for contact instead of power in those situations? And if so, how much? It seems like the "Clutch" stat is telling us that teams are generally better off going for contact in those situations. So if Ichiro goes 3 for 5 in high leverage situations and hits 3 game-tying singles, is that better than if Bonds goes 1 for 5, but hits a 3-run HR to give his team the lead? I'm sure the stats geeks know the answer to this one for sure, but it seems like Ichiro's 3 for 5 would be a *tiny* bit better...then multiply it out by a career and you get a wide difference.