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Fat Strat wrote:

go birds wrote:fat you simply refuse to believe that fowler may not want to play here.

I strongly suggest you try actually reading my posts for what they say instead of what you want to think they say because you want to keep arguing your soapbox point.

Here, I'll make it easy for you:

If he doesn't take that and signs for less somewhere else then that's one thing. Can't do anything about that.

How does that imply that I refuse to believe that Fowler may not want to play here? It sure seems like that's exactly what I'm saying. If he doesn't want to play here, then all we can do to entice him to change his mind is offer more money. If that doesn't work, all we can do is move on.

let me offer my apologies for misreading your post.

hugs

Pretty logical to think Fowler is a 3 win guy right now, considering his defensive improvements have come from pre-pitch positioning and Steamer is dinging him for his poor UZRs in Colorado/Houston. That pushes the 56 million to 72 million. More than that though, even if you're firm that Fowler is a 2.5 win guy and 4/60 is your max offer, you should probably know the market enough to know that you're not truly a contender to sign him.

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Pretty logical to think Fowler is a 3 win guy right now, considering his defensive improvements have come from pre-pitch positioning and Steamer is dinging him for his poor UZRs in Colorado/Houston. That pushes the 56 million to 72 million. More than that though, even if you're firm that Fowler is a 2.5 win guy and 4/60 is your max offer, you should probably know the market enough to know that you're not truly a contender to sign him.

Having a coach put him in the right spot in the outfield is worth $16 million over 4 years. There you go.

Fowler's been worth about 8 wins over his last 1200 PAs.

I'm happy to call it 3 WAR or iow 4/70 - I don't know what their offer is, but it still stands that considering the Cardinals are in a position of re-tooling, at some point it doesn't make sense. It's a different outlook than the offseasons where they signed Peralta and Leake.

Meanwhile, Blackmon, who plays in the same ballpark that said Fowler was a crummy fielder, is supposedly only going to be worth one win next season.

MrCrowesGarden wrote:Fowler's been worth about 8 wins over his last 1200 PAs.

He did all of that hitting in front of Kris Bryant the last 2 years. He's never going to replicate that unless we get Stanton or Goldschmidt. 9 WAR over 4 years is reachable if he ages well. Most likely, if he'll go back to being a 2.0 to 2.5 WAR player like he was in Houston for 4 years.

I still want the Cards to sign him though because he fits a need. If he's bad 3 or 4 years from now, worry about it then. Like we did with Peralta.

pioneer98 wrote:

MrCrowesGarden wrote:Fowler's been worth about 8 wins over his last 1200 PAs.

He did all of that hitting in front of Kris Bryant the last 2 years. He's never going to replicate that unless we get Stanton or Goldschmidt. 9 WAR over 4 years is reachable if he ages well. Most likely, if he'll go back to being a 2.0 to 2.5 WAR player like he was in Houston for 4 years.

I still want the Cards to sign him though because he fits a need. If he's bad 3 or 4 years from now, worry about it then. Like we did with Peralta.

I'm not saying it's not an outlier, but I'm also inclined to believe his last 1200 PAs carry a little more weight than the 1200 that came before them.

For the last two or three years we've been hearing that there's a new TV deal coming, the team has plenty of money, they may need to get outside their comfort zone, blah blah, blah. But when it comes time to somewhat overpay or commit to a player for longer than he will be useful they won't do it. It's not like it was with Pujols when it was going to be a massive amount of money for several years after he would be productive. If Fowler will improve the team for the next two or three seasons, and he's willing to come to STL, then get him.

jagtrader wrote:Meanwhile, Blackmon, who plays in the same ballpark that said Fowler was a crummy fielder, is supposedly only going to be worth one win next season.

That's because he's not nearly as good as Fowler.